Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Yesterday’s session was dominated by the ECB’s 25bp hike, which brought the deposit facility rate to 3.5%, and by a hawkish tone from President Lagarde. She strongly hinted at a further 25bps hike in July, stating that the bank still had some ground to cover and was not considering a pause.
As widely expected, the Fed held policy interest rates unchanged at the range of 5.00%-5.25%, although officials signalled that further hikes (of around 50bp by the end of the year) were likely to be needed, following upward revisions in their macro outlook for GDP growth, inflation and the labour market.
A larger-than-expected decline in US inflation in May, from 4.9% yoy to 4.0%, increased the odds investors attach to a pause in the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes at today’s meeting. Nevertheless, core inflation declined by less than expected, from 5.5% yoy to 5.3%, pushing the Fed to, at the very least, maintain a hawkish tone.
In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously ahead of today's key inflation data release in the US and the upcoming central bank meetings in the US (where we expect the Fed to pause its aggressive rate hike cycle) and the euro area (where the ECB will most likely hike rates by 0.25pp).
Last week ended on a subdued note. Equity indexes were mixed, mostly lower in Europe but with some gains in the US, especially in the interest rate sensitive Nasdaq. Long-dated government bond yields were broadly lower, while shorter-dated yields rose, particularly in the US. Oil and commodities were lower following weak Chinese economic data.
Investors traded with a more positive tone on Thursday, taking on board signs of cooling in the US labour market to adjust downwards their expectations for policy interest rates, ahead of next week's monetary policy announcements.
Another session with mixed results across financial markets on Wednesday, with investors’ sentiment weighted down by weak trade data in China and hawkish signals from some major central banks.
Investors traded with a more positive tone on Tuesday, weighting out signs of moderating inflation expectations with weak industrial data and looking ahead for next week’s monetary policy announcements by major central banks.
A subdued session across financial markets at the start of the week, as investors digested a move by some OPEC+ countries for new oil production cuts, disappointing economic sentiment data and a new round of hawkish messages from some key ECB officials, including a call for more policy rate hikes by Christine Lagarde.
Investors continued to trade with a positive tone as US Congress passed a law suspending the debt limit until January 1st 2025 and after further evidence of disinflationary pressures in some countries, which, in turn, is likely to lead to lower interest rates than previously expected from central banks.
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously ahead of a crucial vote in the US House of Representatives to raise the debt ceiling, which was finally approved. Also, disinflationary pressures were made more evident as inflation declined by more than expected in France and Germany while some Fed members insisted on pausing rate hikes.