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The current conflict between Iran, the US and Israel marks a new supply shock that is once again straining global value chains. This episode is the latest in a string of disruptions to global trade, such as the Trump administration’s tariff policy, the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. It also reinforces the need to diversify supply markets, avoiding major unilateral dependencies, and to work towards greater European production capacity. This message is particularly relevant in strategic areas for medium- and long-term growth, such as technology, healthcare, defence, and the dual green and digital transition.

The Spanish economy is continuing to outperform expectations in 2025, with strong, balanced growth driven by investment and private consumption. This buoyancy is also evident in its sectors of activity: of the 22 sectors analysed in this report, 16 are undergoing an expansionary phase in 2025, compared to only 2 in 2023. The greatest momentum can be seen in industry, where growth is being led by the extractive, chemical, pharmaceutical and refining industries, thanks to high investment, productivity gains and adaptation to the energy transition. Construction and real estate activities are also performing strongly, boosted by residential demand. Although some sectors, such as the textile and wood industries, are facing structural challenges, the economy as a whole is moving towards a more sustainable and diversified growth phase. This climate, marked by a healthy labour market, lower interest rates and stimulus from EU funds, is strengthening the resilience of the Spanish economy in a global environment that is fraught with challenges.

Spain has experienced a sustained increase in business entrepreneurship in recent years, reaching its highest level since 2012. However, business creation remains below the European average and significant structural challenges persist: a high early failure rate among new businesses, a strong geographical concentration of entrepreneurship and a limited focus on high value-added sectors. Despite these weaknesses, encouraging signs are emerging in sectors linked to digitalisation and the Economy 4.0. The major challenge lies in harnessing this dynamism to ensure that more projects survive, consolidate, and are directed towards higher-productivity sectors, so that all this can translate into more solid, balanced, and lasting economic growth.

The outbreak of the pandemic has changed the scenario for investment in retail-related property. On the one hand, severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures have lowered prices and rents for commercial premises, reducing investor interest. On the other hand, COVID-19 has brought about a change in the habits of Spanish consumers that has benefited supermarkets, where investment reached record highs in 2020, and has accelerated the penetration of online commerce in the retail sector, boosting investment in the logistics required to support this sales channel.

Enric Fernández, nuestro Economista Jefe, nos acompaña en este episodio especial para explicarnos en primera persona cuáles serán las tendencias que marcarán la economía mundial y española en 2024. Pese a presentarse lleno de desafíos, 2024 será "un año que irá de menos a más" y hay señales positivas para la economía española: será la economía de la zona euro con más crecimiento, lo que servirá para seguir creando empleo, y la moderación de la inflación debería permitir encara una recuperación gradual del poder adquisitivo de las familias.

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During the first three quarters of 2025, sterling depreciated against the euro, despite having a favorable interest rate differential, due to the resilience of the eurozone and fiscal pressures and political uncertainty in the United Kingdom. Since then, this dynamic has partially reversed, with a moderate appreciation that has become more pronounced following the conflict in the Middle East, during which sterling has outperformed most major currencies, aside from the US dollar.

The resilience of the Spanish economy in recent years has been underpinned by both quantitative (strong job creation) and qualitative (more stable employment) improvements in the labour market. Firstly, there has been a fall in temporary employment, a factor that has traditionally fuelled job insecurity and social inequalities and held back investment in human capital, constraining the economy's growth potential; secondly, in some key sectors of our economy this has been accompanied by an improvement in productivity. However, the incipient improvement in overall productivity that has been observed is not widespread across all sectors.

The agrifood sector continues to suffer from the sharp rise in production costs and the impact of the drought. However, the decline in agricultural commodity and energy prices on international markets from the peaks reached in 2022 should help contain agricultural production costs and thereby moderate inflationary pressures on food. Nevertheless, the severe drought that has been affecting the Iberian Peninsula since last year has reduced the yields of a large number of crops such as cereals and fruits, impacting both prices (up) and the volume of exports (down). All in all, in value terms agrifood exports continued to grow at a good rate in S1 2023 due to the rise in prices, reflecting the high competitiveness of Spain’s agrifood sector despite the adverse conditions.

Año nuevo, ¿economía nueva? Ricard Murillo Gili y Patricia Esteban repasan las cinco hipótesis que marcarán la economía en 2024: desinflación, menores tipos de interés, fortaleza del mercado laboral, desequilibrios en China e incertidumbre geopolítica. Además, la bolsa estadounidense, el mercado laboral español o los efectos del cambio climático son otros de los temas con los que arranca el año "Economía Exprés".

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