In the course of 2021 we have seen that, in the wake of the pandemic, a misalignment has emerged in the real estate sector between a demand that has recovered very quickly and a supply that is more dependent on structural factors and therefore continues to lag behind. As a result of this misalignment, house prices have started an upward trend which may continue to some extent in the coming quarters as a result of higher production costs in the sector and problems with the supply of certain raw materials. Nevertheless, in the medium term, as new supply enters the market and tensions in global supply chains ease, prices should return to a growth rate that is more in line with the trend in household income.
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Construction costs in Spain have increased considerably since January 2021, a rise that was prompted by the strong recovery in global demand as the economy reopened after the pandemic but was further aggravated by the outbreak of war in Ukraine. In recent months, however, the price of industrial metals on international markets has fallen sharply and the futures markets point to prices stabilising to some extent. Given this situation, the cost of construction materials in Spain is expected to moderate in 2023.
The tourism industry is a key sector for Spain's economy and the decline forecast in tourism for 2020 will have a major impact on the country's level of economic activity. However, this economic impact will not be spread evenly throughout Spain as there are big differences between regions in the relative importance of the tourism sector. We expect the islands and Mediterranean communities to be more exposed than the average in Spain, while inland regions will suffer less.
In this issue, we focus on China's commodity stockpiling strategy and the fiscal room for maneuver of the new Trump administration. As for the Spanish economy, which we expect to continue to grow above the eurozone average in 2025, we present new forecasts for the real estate sector, analyze the Treasury's strategy in a context of a reduction in the public deficit and note the improvement in employment stability as a result of the decline in the temporary employment rate.
The European Parliament elections this June were held at a key moment for the European construction process, taking into account the economic, political and social challenges that our continent must address in the coming years. Many of these challenges are discussed in the Dossier of this Monthly Report, ranging from the loss of competitiveness in a world that is undergoing a reconfiguration of value chains and relationships between economic blocs, to the revitalisation of productivity and technological development, to the need to push ahead with the capital markets union.
Foreign demand for housing in Spain has performed exceptionally well after the pandemic. In 2022, foreigners bought 90,000 homes in Spain, 46% more than in 2021. In line with this good performance, the number of mortgages taken out by foreigners also increased and reached 30,000 in 2022, so that one in three foreign buyers took out a mortgage in Spain last year. Foreign residents tend to buy homes and take out mortgages for a similar amount as Spaniards. On the other hand, non-resident foreigners tend to opt for more expensive properties and, consequently, the average mortgage taken out by foreigners is higher, although there are notable differences depending on nationality and autonomous region. The value of mortgages taken out by foreigners in the Balearic Islands is particularly high while, in terms of nationality, Swedes and Americans tend to take out the largest mortgages.
We dedicate the dossier of the December issue to one of the major determining factors for social well-being and cohesion: inequality. Through the monthly monitoring of internal data that we have carried out since the pandemic, we are able to confirm the downward trend of inequality in Spain, contrary to that observed in the main developed economies, and we stop to examine the recent evolution of Spain’s middle class. In other articles of the report, also using internal data, we analyse the economic impact of the floods in Valencia and how households in Catalan municipalities in a state of drought adjusted their water consumption. In addition, we study the exposure of the Spanish, European and Chinese economies to tariff hikes in the United States.
Desde 2022, la restauración en España vive una fuerte reactivación gracias al auge turístico y a la recuperación pospandemia. Sin embargo, aunque los ingresos prácticamente duplican los niveles previos a la crisis sanitaria y el empleo en el sector ha alcanzado cifras récord, persiste un reto estructural: cada año, 1 de cada 10 empresas del sector entra o sale del mercado. El análisis regional y la comparación con la UE confirman que la elevada rotación empresarial responde, entre otros factores, a la alta densidad de locales, al reducido tamaño de las empresas y a un menor grado de profesionalización, lo que se traduce en ingresos por empleado significativamente inferiores.
After the sharp downturn in the sector caused by the pandemic, the recovery of international tourism in Spain can now be considered almost complete. Among the world’s top 10 tourism destinations, Spain was the second to exceed its number of pre-COVID international tourists, behind only Türkiye.
Given the dramatic decline in demand, house prices are likely to undergo some adjustment in the period 2020-2021, although there will be significant differences depending on the property's location and type. Specifically, we expect house prices to fall more sharply in the second-hand market and tourist areas, which have been severely affected by the restrictions on international travel.
Según estimaciones de CaixaBank Research, España ha acumulado un déficit de vivienda, que ya supera las 730.000 unidades, como consecuencia de una intensa creación de hogares y de una respuesta insuficiente en la construcción de obra nueva. En este artículo, revisamos la magnitud de ese desajuste y su impacto en la evolución reciente de los precios de la vivienda, que muestran una tensión creciente en buena parte del territorio. Observamos también que la promoción de obra nueva no avanza, precisamente, en las regiones donde el desfase entre oferta y demanda es más acusado, lo que agrava los desequilibrios y prolongará las presiones sobre los precios. Finalmente, examinamos los factores que están limitando la reactivación de la oferta (desde el aumento de los costes de construcción hasta las restricciones normativas y la falta de suelo finalista, pasando por los problemas de infraestructuras) y anticipamos una escasa mejora a corto plazo de la capacidad del sector para atender las necesidades actuales de vivienda.
In the first issue of 2025, we stop to take a snapshot of foreign demand for housing, international business tourism and the savings of Spanish households according to their demographic and income profile. We continue to analyse the European economy’s exposure to US tariff hikes, this time from the perspective of value chains, and we also assess the challenges for European fiscal policy following the entry into force of the new economic governance framework.
Between 2019 and 2025, Spain's manufacturing industry has grown at a similar rate to overall GDP, despite the impact of the pandemic and the energy crisis. This strong performance stands in contrast to the stagnation and decline seen in the industrial sector in the main European economies, and marks a departure from the trend of the last two decades, when its share of Spain's GDP fell from 16.7% to 10.8%. In this article we examine some of the drivers behind this turnaround in the Spanish industrial sector, most notably energy prices and productivity.
En 2025, el yen se depreció de forma sostenida frente al euro, pese a las políticas restrictivas del Banco de Japón y las políticas ligeramente expansivas del BCE. Esto se debe a varios motivos: el diferencial de tipos todavía negativo, la incertidumbre política y fiscal de Japón o la debilidad estructural del país nipón, que depende en exceso de importaciones de energía y otras materias primas. Esta dinámica se ha moderado a inicios de este año, en parte afectada por las especulaciones de una intervención coordinada entre Estados Unidos y Japón sobre el yen y el giro en el panorama político.
Consumption in Spain is recovering faster than in previous crises. This is highlighted in the consumption tracker produced by CaixaBank Research based on internal data (available in Spanish: Monitor de Consumo). In the month of October, our consumption indicator was already 13% higher than in the same month in 2019.
En el ciclo expansivo actual del mercado inmobiliario español, se observa un fuerte incremento de la dispersión de los precios de la vivienda a lo largo de la geografía española, a diferencia del boom inmobiliario anterior a 2008. Desde 2015, los municipios turísticos y las grandes ciudades lideran el crecimiento de los precios. En cambio, en zonas rurales o en ciudades pequeñas, se observan aumentos de precio más moderados. Este comportamiento refuerza la visión de que, en este ciclo, la formación de precios responde a las dinámicas propias de oferta y demanda de cada territorio. En las grandes ciudades, las fuertes presiones de precio en los centros se van extendiendo a cada vez más municipios de las áreas metropolitanas.
In this issue of the Real Estate Sector Report we take stock of a more positive 2023 than expected and offer our forecasts for 2024-2025, which we have also revised upwards. In addition, we analyse how population growth has driven up housing demand in Spain in recent years; how the real estate markets of the main advanced economies have responded to the tightening of financial conditions, and what we expect for Spain’s commercial real estate market.
The rapid growth of Spain’s real estate sector during the first half of the year has led us to revise upwards our forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Even so, the mismatch between supply and demand will determine the sector’s behaviour, as it tackles major challenges such as climate change and the housing affordability problems for the young and the most vulnerable segments of society.
Activity in Spain’s agrifood sector is increasing at a faster rate than across the economy as a whole and the outlook for the 2024-2025 campaign is encouraging. Exports are holding up well in the adverse environment of recent years and the food price rally has begun to slow, although the cumulative increase since 2019 remains significant.