Activity in Spain’s agrifood sector is increasing at a faster rate than across the economy as a whole and the outlook for the 2024-2025 campaign is encouraging. Exports are holding up well in the adverse environment of recent years and the food price rally has begun to slow, although the cumulative increase since 2019 remains significant.
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In 2024, the Spanish economy has experienced widespread growth across virtually all of its sectors. The outlook for 2025 also looks promising, although there will be differences in growth rates and the transition to a more sustainable production system will need to be tackled head on. The automotive sector will also face the challenge of remaining competitive in the new global ecosystem.
Spain’s manufacturing sector has overcome a 2022 that was hit hard by the energy crisis and supply problems regarding some raw materials, preventing manufacturers from getting back to their pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, although the economic situation is still significantly uncertain, the outlook is somewhat more favourable than a few months ago: having weathered the more adverse scenarios observed during the winter, the economy continues to show positive signs thanks to the stabilisation of energy markets and the resilience of Spain’s labour market and household consumption.
The rental housing market has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. Its sharp price rises, much bigger than the increase in wage income, has highlighted the economic vulnerability of households living in rented accommodation. These households tend to have a lower-than-average income level and a high percentage of them spend more than 40% of their income on housing-related payments. To redress this worrying situation, much-needed economic policy measures have been taken to increase the supply of affordable housing. However, other types of policies have also been proposed, such as rent caps in stressed market areas, although their effectiveness is limited judging by experiences in other countries.
Activity in the real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump between March and June. House sales and new building permits have regained much of the ground lost in Q3 2020, a trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. House prices, whose trend is still weak but without any extreme corrections, are expected to follow a similar trend in the coming quarters, ending 2021 with a decline of around 2%.
Tras la celebración de la COP28 en Dubái, dedicamos el último episodio del año a conocer los diversos riesgos derivados del cambio climático a los que se enfrenta la economía, y a entender el papel de las empresas y del sector financiero en la sostenibilidad. Lo hacemos de la mano de Roser Ferrer, economista y experta en sostenibilidad en CaixaBank Research. Como de costumbre, repasamos también los puntos clave de la coyuntura económica con Ricard Murillo, en un momento marcado por el cambio de rumbo de la política monetaria. Aprovechamos para desear a nuestros oyentes de “Economía Exprés” unas ¡felices fiestas y un próspero 2024!
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We present the CaixaBank Research Sectoral Observatory, the first 360º report on the state and outlook for Spain’s economic sectors. The goal of this publication is to take a more in-depth look at the underlying dynamics behind macroeconomic developments, offering a comprehensive view of the various economic sectors’ performance over time.
¿Cuándo empezarán a bajar los tipos los tipos de interés? ¿Se desmarcará el BCE de la Fed? ¿Podemos dar por acabada la crisis inflacionista en Europa? Ponemos a prueba a nuestros observadores de los bancos centrales en este especial sobre política monetaria de Economía Exprés y comentamos los buenos datos de crecimiento con los que nos ha sorprendido la economía española el primer trimestre de 2024.
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En el primer capítulo de 2025, repasamos los primeros días de Donald Trump como presidente de los Estados Unidos para entender cómo podrían llegar a afectar a la economía sus decisiones. Nos detenemos a analizar exposición de las exportaciones europeas y españolas a la temida subida de los aranceles, y hacemos un breve balance global de 2024 para ver cómo afrontan las principales economías el nuevo año y el relevo republicano en la Casa Blanca. Con Patricia Esteban e Isabela Lara White, economista experta en Estados Unidos en CaixaBank Research.
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En este episodio de Economía Exprés, Oriol Aspachs, director de Economía Española en CaixaBank Research, analiza el sorprendente crecimiento económico de España en 2024 y las previsiones para 2025. Un año en el que la economía seguirá creciendo, pero a un ritmo condicionado por la incertidumbre geopolítica. Con él exploramos el impacto de la política arancelaria de Donald Trump, los efectos de los avances de la Unión Europea en aumentar su gasto en defensa y la situación de los principales socios comerciales de la economía española.
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The Trump administration’s announcements of tariff hikes have raised the effective average US tariff on imports to its highest level in a century. Although the decision has been suspended for 90 days, with the exception of China, it reflects the destabilising potential of the measures announced and has triggered fears of a further slowdown in the global economy.
This month we explore in depth the impact and implementation of the Next Generation EU funds in a new Dossier. We begin with an analysis of the status of the implementation of these funds at the European level, followed by an assessment of their impact and future challenges. Next, we examine how they are being managed in Spain, highlighting both current achievements and future expectations. We also address investments beyond NGEU, which are necessary in order for Europe to adapt and thrive in an environment as demanding as the current one. Finally, we compare the US model of economic transformation with the European approach.
Signs of disinflationary pressures and a worsening of household and firm’s economic confidence in the euro area were yesterday’s main drivers in financial markets. Investors’ expectation of the official ECB interest rates was revised downwards between 10 and 15bp for 2023 and 2024.
The Fed delivered a hawkish pause yesterday, leaving interest rates unchanged but acknowledging a strong US economy. The dot-plot projects a tighter policy through 2024 and 2025, consistent with rates higher for longer. US stock indices fell and US Treasury yields rose on the news, with the yield curve flattening, while the USD appreciated.
Euro area and US sovereign bond yields continued to fall during Friday's session as investors continue to expect interest rate cuts by mid-2024. Speaking last Friday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell remarked that policy is "well into restrictive territoy" further fueling the rally in bond markets.
Markets took a pause after last week’s rally which brought the main stock indices to post their best monthly advance in years, and sovereign bond yields their largest monthly cuts in two years. Investors have now turned cautious ahead of this week’s US employment data while still pricing in the likelihood of interest rate cuts as soon as March 2024.
In the first session of the week, investors continued to reassess their expectations on the upcoming easing of the ECB and Fed’s monetary policy stance. The January PMI and ISM data releases showed a stronger-than-expected start of 2024 that decreased further the probabilities of seeing the first rate cut in April and May for both central banks.
A quiet session on Wednesday as US markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields rose and peripheral spreads widened after the European Commission opened an excessive deficit procedure for France, Italy, Belgium and five other member states under the 2024 European Semester Spring Package.
Yesterday’s session centered around the June inflation report from the US: inflation cooled to 3.0% in June (from 3.3% in May) and core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.4% last month. On a monthly basis, prices fell –0.1%, the first negative rate in four years. Markets are discounting two interest rate cut from the Fed in 2024, and a 40% probability of a third cut.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, and hinted that if inflation readings continue in the right direction, a September rate cut "could be on the table." Markets reaffirmed their expectation of three 25bp interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2024. Treasury yields fell by +10bp, and US equities rallied.