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In a context marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent uncertainty and tariff threats, the global economy continues to show remarkable resilience. 

This first article in the Dossier “Solidarity in Spain: snapshot of a committed society” examines the social attitudes and philanthropic behaviour of the Spanish population through the representative survey commissioned by the Social Observatory of the ”la Caixa” Foundation in 2024.

The global economy sustains the momentum, but pockets of instability persist. The US faces the impact of the longest shutdown in its history; the euro area holds up but lacks momentum, and China’s slowdown is accentuated at the end of the year.

The new CaixaBank Research Dossier, dedicated to «An analysis of European productivity», aims to explore the recent dynamics in the EU’s productivity, focusing on its territorial dispersion and the differentiating factors between the best and worst performing regions. In this first article, we provide some context by outlining the main trends.

The November activity indicators point to a very positive Q4 for the Spanish economy, while inflation stabilises at still somewhat high levels and the house price rally shows no sign of easing. The current account surplus is reduced by the strength of imports, as is the public deficit compared to last year.

November was dominated by a sharp upturn in volatility in the stock markets, amid doubts about the potential exuberance of AI investments in the US and the high valuations of the big tech firms. Sentiment recovered towards the end of the month, with the expectation that the Fed could continue its rate cuts in December, but concern shifted to Japan in the sovereign debt markets.

The disruptions experienced in 2025 have given way to a new international environment marked by greater barriers to entry into the US market, a certain reconfiguration of trade flows and traditional alliances and, moreover, an acceleration in the race for artificial intelligence. All this is taking place amid persistent sources of uncertainty, while the debate between the promises and fears surrounding AI continues, with its financial offshoot. Moreover, we must not forget the uncertainty surrounding fiscal pressures, with the public accounts of major economies like the US and France deteriorating, but also opening a window of opportunity for economic revitalisation in countries such as Germany.

In this fourth and last article of the Dossier “Solidarity in Spain: snapshot of a committed society”, we analyse, in collaboration with Pompeu Fabra University, the change in the aggregate volume and in the number of donations that were made after the floods in Valencia based on CaixaBank banking transactions in order to better understand the charitable response to this emergency. 

The ECB has completed a monetary cycle, leaving the negative rates and unconventional measures of the last decade behind and significantly tightening monetary policy. During this cycle, the ECB has also adjusted the structure it uses to guide and implement monetary policy

In the other pages of this Dossier, we have analysed in depth how ageing will affect the capacity for economic growth and the public finances. All these changes will have consequences on the supply and demand for savings and, therefore, on the interest rates of economies.

The strong performance of the Spanish economy in 2025 is mainly explained by the vigour of domestic demand, driven by a dynamic labour market, the decline in interest rates, migration flows and European funds. These factors have more than offset the negative impact of the tariff hikes imposed on our goods exports to the US.

The volatility of the main asset classes continued to decline in December, while liquidity improved in the US and financial conditions were eased, although risks related to geopolitics and AI persist. The main stock indices extended the rally that had begun in November, while long-term sovereign yields rose. The euro consolidated its appreciation in the year, while oil closed down at a four-year low due to oversupply and investors' medium-term reading of the situation in Venezuela. Precious metals experienced a historic rally, albeit not without setbacks.

The ageing of the population will have a major impact on the public finances of advanced economies. The mechanism is well known: the ageing of the population and the consequent increase in dependency ratios can reduce tax revenues and increase public spending substantially. The main message of this article is that demographics will exert intense upward pressure on the public finances in Spain and Europe.

We analyse recent developments and the outlook for public debt in the major advanced economies. While the United States, France and Belgium will continue to see an increase in their ratios, Japan and the United Kingdom could stabilise them. In contrast, the euro area periphery shows favourable conditions for reducing its debt, although it will require significant fiscal effort.

The Portuguese economy is showing remarkable resilience in 2025, driven mainly by a buoyant labour market and increasingly strong investment.

If we want to get a better understanding of monetary policy decision-making, we must pay close attention to changes in financial conditions. To do this, there is an important initial step: knowing how to measure them.