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In recent years, rural tourism has become increasingly important in Spain, opening up new avenues to diversify the sources of income for rural economies. In this article, based on internal CaixaBank data, we look at the upturn in the sector after the COVID-19 pandemic and its implications for the economic resilience of rural Spain and for the tourism industry, given its high level of sustainability both from the point of view of its impact on the environment and its greater geographic diversification and more limited seasonality compared to other, more traditional forms of tourism such as sun, sea and sand destinations.

CaixaBank Research has developed new models for forecasting house prices at the level of province using large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques. According to these models, house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow only very moderately in the rest. Comparing current forecasts with those projected by the models before the pandemic, a notable correction can be seen in the expected growth of house prices in one year’s time, approximately 4 pp on average. This correction has been more pronounced in provinces with a higher urban concentration and greater dependence on foreign tourism, although they are still the most dynamic in spite of this.

The CaixaBank Research real estate clock shows the trends in house prices and sales throughout the cycle.

The Spanish housing market is in the midst of a boom, driven by lower interest rates, the improvement in purchasing power and population growth. Demand continues to grow sharply, with foreign buyers playing a notable role, while supply is also steadily gaining traction, although it still does not compensate for the housing deficit accumulated since 2021. House prices continue to accelerate, now exceeding the peak reached in 2007 in nominal terms, and signs of overvaluation are beginning to become apparent. However, the current context differs from the one prior to the bursting of the housing bubble: rather than an oversupply, there is a serious housing deficit, and that is what primarily explains the pressure on prices; moreover, households, the construction and developer sector, and the financial system are in a strong financial position. We expect prices and sales to remain dynamic in the coming quarters, underscoring the need to increase the supply of affordable housing.

House prices and the number of sales have surged since mid-last year in Spain, although there are significant geographical differences. In 2024, house prices grew more vigorously in the most expensive areas, thus widening the price gap between municipalities and regions, and this is causing some of the demand to begin to shift towards more affordable areas. At the provincial level, temperature could be a relevant factor: sales are growing more rapidly in the cooler regions of the Northwest of the peninsula, while the traditional tourist areas are experiencing a more gradual increase in demand. In addition, the sharp rise in house prices in the major cities is causing a shift in housing demand towards more affordable peripheral areas, where house prices are expected to experience rapid growth in 2025.

The coronavirus pandemic took the world by surprise and brought international tourism almost to a complete halt. The initial phases of a relative recovery are restoring connectivity between those outbound markets and tourist destinations that have controlled the spread of the coronavirus. However, the sector will have to undertake a far-reaching and rapid transformation to adapt to the new, post-COVID-19 international tourist who will demand more personalised, flexible and, above all, safer services.

One of the variables with the greatest impact on consumption decisions are prices, which fell on aggregate by 0.3% in 2020 in Spain according to official data.²⁵ However, there were marked changes in consumption patterns last year, making it very difficult to accurately measure the figure actually faced by consumers. CaixaBank’s own estimates based on high-frequency internal data suggest that inflation was somewhat higher, namely 0.1%.²⁶ Moreover, inflation did not affect everyone equally, with differences depending on age and income.

Spain’s real estate market slowed in 2023, but more gently than anticipated. Despite the sharp rise in interest rates, several factors have supported the sector, including a resilient labour market, significant immigration flows, the imbalance between the short supply of new housing and the high demand, and the improvement in household finances. On the supply side, the stabilisation of construction costs has allowed 2023 to end with a similar number of new home construction permits to that of previous years. In the first half of 2024, we expect this gentle slowdown to continue, as interest rates remain high and the economic environment continues to show signs of relative weakness; however, in the second half, as the downward path of interest rates takes hold and economic activity gains traction, we expect the real estate market to regain more vigour.

The agrifood sector has continued to perform well since the most critical months of the pandemic. Primary sector production remains at a high level, the food industry is recovering from the slump experienced in 2020 and demand indicators suggest food consumption patterns are gradually getting back to normal, both in and outside the home. Agrifood exports are also booming, a lever of growth that will continue to be vital for the sector’s future.

The Spanish economy has kicked off 2025 with widespread growth, albeit slightly more moderate than that of the previous year. Despite the global challenges, such as the protectionist shift in the US, half of its sectors are showing signs of expansion, most notably the chemicals and pharmaceutical industry. This buoyancy across the various sectors, coupled with the country’s competitive advantage in renewable energies, bolsters the resilience of the economy amid an uncertain international environment.

The outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020 has had unprecedented repercussions in many areas of the economy. One of these has been household consumption, the main component of GDP and traditionally considered an indicator of the health of the economy and the well-being of society. Because of the restrictions on business and mobility during the health crisis caused by COVID-19, the drop in consumption was much greater than during previous crises. The positive side is that once restrictions were lifted, Spain’s consumption has rebounded more sharply in 2021 than in the past. In fact, in October the consumption tracker produced by CaixaBank Research using internal data was already 13% higher than in the same month of 2019.