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Despite the goal to reduce the government deficit to 3% of GDP in 2024, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. In addition, the market will have to absorb all the debt that is currently in the hands of the ECB and which it will not reinvest. In this context, we provide some perspective on the volume of debt that the market will have to absorb during this year.

The new focus of concern in the already complex global economic scenario is the health of public finances. In the case of Spain, the two key levers in order for public debt to continue to fall are the general government deficit and economic growth.

The severe deterioration in the public finances as a result of the pandemic has reopened the debate about the need to reform EU fiscal rules.

After the experience of recent years, we know how political risk can alter the behaviour of key hypotheses in economic forecasting scenarios.

The Spanish economy continues to have the highest structural unemployment rate in the European Union, despite having managed to reduce it substantially in recent years. To curb it, improvements are needed on three fronts: greater supply and demand for employment and better matching between the two.

Q2 2025 began with all bets placed on a slowdown in the growth of the Spanish economy. In early April, and after months of threats, the Trump administration announced bilateral tariffs and catapulted the main uncertainty indicators to all-time highs. Weeks later, a blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for a day. Moreover, all this happened in an environment in which the euro area economy was once again showing signs of cooling.