The Spanish economy continues to have the highest structural unemployment rate in the European Union, despite having managed to reduce it substantially in recent years. To curb it, improvements are needed on three fronts: greater supply and demand for employment and better matching between the two.
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With disinflation on track and some signs of a slowdown in economic activity and a cooling of the labour market, monetary policy is shifting gears and starting to dial back the monetary tightening of the past years: going from restrictive to neutral. The ECB and the Fed, along with other major central banks, have initiated this easing process with interest rate cuts, and they are expected to continue doing so in 2025. From there, we will seek to clarify the factors that will guide this new phase of monetary policy.
The coronavirus pandemic is having a severe impact on emerging economies. Around 100 countries, most of them emerging, are exploring the possibility of obtaining assistance from the IMF or expanding that which they already have in place. Are we entering into a new widespread crisis in the emerging markets like that of the 1980s and 1990s?
Stable economic outlook but with increasing risks: geopolitical instability, uncertainty and a lack of confidence.
Having launched the most intense monetary tightening cycle of recent decades, it appears that the central banks are on track to solve the unexpected upturn in inflation which the international economy has had to cope with since the first half of 2021.
The Spanish economy is currently undergoing a period of buoyant growth. With the effects of the pandemic and the energy crisis now behind it, it is now in a strong expansionary phase, marked by balanced and widespread growth across sectors
In 2024, the Spanish economy has exhibited widespread growth across virtually all of its sectors: the number of sectors in a situation of weakness has reduced, while that of sectors in expansion has increased, following the gradual absorption of the major shocks that affected their performance in recent years.
In 2021, a milestone was reached that was hard to imagine a year ago: the mass vaccination of a large part of the population in advanced countries. Although new waves of infection are occurring, in those countries where population vaccination levels are higher it is likely that activity and travel restrictions as severe as those that have set the pace of economic development since the outbreak of the pandemic will not have to be reimposed.
Consumption in Spain is recovering faster than in previous crises. This is highlighted in the consumption tracker produced by CaixaBank Research based on internal data (available in Spanish: Monitor de Consumo). In the month of October, our consumption indicator was already 13% higher than in the same month in 2019.
The Spanish agrifood sector has begun to recover after two years of decline, thanks to the moderation of production costs and the easing of the drought. However, the effects of both of these shocks still persist and the sector continues to face major challenges that are limiting its structural growth capacity.
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Banking union in the euro area
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Post-reform peripheral Europe
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National accounts in the digital era
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Europe’s energy conundrum: from the war to the climate transition
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Impact and challenges of the digital economy