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With the general government deficit expected to stabilise at around 4.0% of GDP in 2023, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. The market will also have to absorb all of the debt held by the ECB that will not be reinvested by the central bank, after it announced a shift in its strategy in December. In this context, it is useful to put into perspective the volume of debt that the market will have to absorb during 2023.

The announcement of a significant and widespread increase in tariffs by the Trump administration, coupled with an erratic and unpredictable economic policy, has triggered fears of a further slowdown in the global economy. In this context, it is time to re-evaluate where the Spanish economy currently stands, assessing its strengths and weaknesses in the new scenario.

The AIReF has ruled that the pension spending rule agreed with the European Commission has not been violated, although it has pointed out that complying with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of the pension system or that of the general government as a whole. Moreover, it has warned that it will be necessary to increase government transfers to the Social Security system in order to sustain it between now and 2050.

In 2024, Spain reduced its exports to the European Union and the United States, so it had to seek out opportunities in new markets in order to diversify and strengthen its trade relations. These new markets primarily included countries in ASEAN, Latin America and the Caribbean Islands, as well as Oceania.

The saying goes that better the devil you know than the devil you don’t, but perhaps inflation is a special case. What will happen with inflation in 2023?

The savings of Spaniards went from 5,800 euros per household in 2023 to more than 7,000 in 2024. Why has the household savings rate increased and what do we expect for 2025?

In an environment still marked by high uncertainty, multiple factors could modify the course of the Spanish economy in the coming months, both for better and for worse. Three of them stand out: the evolution of energy prices, the resilience of the labour market and the execution of the European NGEU funds.

In the midst of the storm sparked by the pandemic, the real estate market has maintained a positive tone. Although the heightened uncertainty and the restrictions led to the postponement of home purchase decisions, prices decelerated only slightly and still rose by around 8% in 2020.

Until not long ago, the financial markets had seemed to digest with relative ease the heavy dose of monetary tightening that the central banks have introduced to curb inflation. However, with interest rates increasingly entering restrictive territory – that is, at levels that should cool the economy – the risk of stress events and financial turbulence increases.

The string of supply and demand shocks triggered by the announcements of recent weeks will alter the balances of growth and inflation, while the expectations variable will modulate the effects that will be transmitted through the trade and financial channels. 

In the continuation of the article «Advanced economy housing markets in a scenario of tighter monetary policy (part I)» we calculate the potential adjustment in housing prices which could occur in some of the international housing markets that are showing signs of overvaluation.

The Silicon Valley Bank intervention and the shock wave it triggered throughout the rest of the international financial system has been yet another obstacle on the path towards the normalisation of the international economic cycle, it can be seen as a test for the central banks’ dual mandate.

The independence of central banks seems indisputable, even more so in these times of pandemic, in which they have increased their use of unconventional policies and provided coverage for the high funding needs of states. In this article we will explore the theory and empirical evidence supporting the importance for central banks to maintain their independence.

Like Vladimir and Estragon in Waiting for Godot, economists, academics and central banks have spent the last decade waiting for inflation that never came. At least until COVID-19 arrived on the scene. The rallies in the inflation data and expectations with which 2021 began have revived the debate about its arrival.