Ricard Murillo Gili explica los detalles de la reciente revisión de las previsiones macroeconómicas de CaixaBank Research, publicadas en el Informe Mensual de febrero. En general, nuestras previsiones de crecimiento del PIB son ahora más optimistas gracias a la moderación de los precios energéticos y al factor arrastre de un tramo final de 2022 mejor de lo esperado, y pese a contemplarse una política monetaria más agresiva por parte de la Fed y el BCE. Las previsiones de inflación se han revisado al alza en la eurozona y EE. UU. y ligeramente a la baja en España, principalmente por la fuerte caída de los precios energéticos.
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Nuestro economista Adrià Morron participó en un webinar para Accionistas CaixaBank en el que explicó en detalle cuáles son nuestras perspectivas de tipos de interés, en momento clave para la política monetaria del BCE y la Fed.
In a quiet session due to the President's Day holiday in the US, traders continued to weigh incoming economic data (eg consumer confidence in the eurozone rose to -19 from -20.7) with the hawkish tone from central bank officials. In this context, yields on sovereign bonds ticked up in the euro area, nearing year-to-date highs.
Investors ended the week in a positive mood, supported by trade deal hopes. Stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields nudged up both in the U.S. and the euro area, while the euro was little changed at $1.17 and Brent oil solidified its weekly dive below $70. Last week, the S&P 500 managed to fully recover from early-2025 losses and closed at all-time highs.
Yesterday, global markets ended the session on a cautious footing as mounting tensions in the Middle East and renewed trade uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment. European equities edged lower amid broad risk-off flows, while U.S. markets remained shut in observance of Juneteenth. In fixed income, eurozone sovereign yields rose, particularly at the long end of the curve, while peripheral spreads widened.
Markets were mixed during last session as several data releases for the euro area and the US was digested by investors. In the euro area, February's flash composite PMI came slightly below expectations (50.2 vs 50.5 expected), with manufacturing PMI still in contractionary territory (47.3) and services PMI still in expansion (50.7).
Markets rebounded on Monday as geopolitical fears eased amid signs that Iran was seeking to end hostilities with Israel. Sovereign yields fell modestly across the eurozone with peripheral spreads narrowing slightly, as news that the EU would be willing to accept a broad 10% tariff on EU goods from the US were dismissed by the European Commission.
Clàudia Canals resume nuestras previsiones para las principales economías avanzadas y emergentes, eurozona y España, y explica en detalle las causas profundas del rebote de la inflación, uno de los riesgos que persisten en la economía mundial desde el mes pasado, junto con la disrupción de las cadenas globales de aprovisionamiento.
In yesterday’s session, investors continued to trade with caution amid intensifying political negotiations in the US to raise the debt ceiling and mixed economic data releases. In Europe, the May’s ZEW survey fell in the euro area and Germany, showing that investors’ sentiment remains gloomy.
Investors in European markets exhibited a positive mood, and the main euro area stock market indices advanced by around 1.0 percent in yesterday's session (with the exception of the Portuguese PSI20, which remained flat).
With U.S. markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday, European stocks advanced moderately at the start of the week as investors digested the results of the weekend's European Parliament election.
European stock markets continued with the positive mood of the last session and gains were moderate and broad-based across the different European countries.
Investors traded in a positive mood yesterday as the European stock market rose 0.6% on the back of good earnings reports and positive soft data. In Germany, the ZEW business expectations index rose to 71.2 in March from 61.8 in February, its highest level in months. Euro area periphery sovereign yields widened slightly.
European stocks and bond yields fell yesterday as Italy, France, Germany and Spain suspend vaccinations with the AstraZeneca vaccine over worries about the jabs' side-effects. Meanwhile, Italy has taken more stringent lockdown measures. The Eurostoxx50 was down by 0.1%.