Generally speaking, the world of economic prophets is populated by pessimistic or conservative people. It is preferable for things to go better than expected than for us to be caught off guard.

How innovative is Spain relative to its European partners? We analyse the evolution of Spain’s position in the European Commission’s innovation index.

The recent recovery in emerging currencies is being interpreted either as the beginning of a more lasting regime change or a temporary upward trend. We explore the macroeconomic fundamentals and market dynamics to determine which side has the most arguments. 

Foreign demand is a fundamental pillar in explaining the strength of housing demand in the current expansionary cycle. Much of this demand comes from foreigners who reside in Spain – a group that has been on the rise in recent years with the recent influx of immigrants into our country.

Competitiveness is a key factor in a country’s economic prosperity. The ups and downs of the business cycle can influence economic growth to a greater or lesser extent. However, over the long term, the fundamental factor that determines an economy’s ability to generate wealth and prosperity in a global environment is competitiveness.

There are five factors that suggest that the gap between Spain’s GDP and its pre-pandemic trajectory will steadily close through growth remaining above the historical average of 2.0%.

The energy crisis has served as an incentive within the EU to accelerate the transition to energy sources that are more environmentally friendly and less dependent on fossil fuels, but this is seen as more of a medium-term goal.

The strength of the labour market and population growth due to migratory flows have led to a rise in Spaniards’ gross disposable income.

Following the rally of 2024, the data for Q1 have confirmed that the market is in the midst of the expansionary phase of the cycle, which has led us to revise upwards our forecast scenario.

The goal has been identified and diagnosed for some time, but it is difficult to achieve. It requires patience, resources, both public and private, and determination and cooperation among the various institutions and agents involved, precisely because the challenge is so great. 

In 2024, Spain reduced its exports to the European Union and the United States, so it had to seek out opportunities in new markets in order to diversify and strengthen its trade relations. These new markets primarily included countries in ASEAN, Latin America and the Caribbean Islands, as well as Oceania.

We analyse how the wealth of European households has evolved, comparing the major countries, using new experimental statistics published by the European Central Bank.

In this article, we focus on analysing the past evolution and future outlook for potential GDP growth. This is a key variable, since it offers an indication of our economy’s underlying growth trend.In other words, it tells us how much the economy can grow by in a sustained manner in the absence of shocks if all of the economy’s productive capacity is used and no imbalances arise.

The good growth data for the Spanish economy in the final stretch of 2024 lead us to revise upwards our GDP growth forecast for 2025. However, the greater likelihood of tariff tensions between the US and the EU invites us to remain cautious. In this regard, we expect the economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025, above the 2.3% we were previously predicting, albeit somewhat below the revision we could have made in the absence of this uncertainty factor.

Spain’s economy has not abandoned the path of correcting one of its traditional imbalances: its foreign indebtedness. Spain has not only racked up 12 consecutive years with a net lending capacity, but in 2023 its net lending also reached a new all-time high of 3.7% of GDP, compared to 1.5% in 2022.

Why is productivity so low in Spain and why has it grown so little in recent years? Although the answer is complex and a whole range of factors are involved, two of the key causes of the Spanish economy’s low labour productivity, as well as the low growth thereof, are the country’s production specialisation and the small size of its companies.

The savings rate of Spanish households remains very high, but it can vary substantially depending on income level, so it is important to analyse how it is distributed according to income level and age. We dedicate this article to such an analysis, using anonymised internal data and big data techniques. 

Despite the unprecedented economic downturn caused by COVID-19, the cost of financing public debt is at an all-time low. To what extent do these interest rates lie behind the macroeconomic fundamentals?