Investors traded in a mild risk-on mood on Tuesday as they awaited the results of the US elections. Government bond yields showed strong sensitivity to the tight race, with volatility persisting throughout the session. In the end, eurozone bond yields posted slight gains while the US Treasuries were mixed, with curves flattening on both sides of the Atlantic.
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Investors started the first full week of trading of the year with a slightly higher risk appetite than at the end of December. In the eurozone, German government bond yields rose after December CPI came in above expectations, while peripheral spreads fell as the final December PMI reading surprised to the upside across the eurozone, but especially in the periphery.
The Spanish economy remains buoyant in a more challenging global context and a growing number of its sectors are in expansion. In this context, the sectors most exposed to the new protectionist shift in the US have the potential to redirect their exports to other global markets, while renewable energies can play a strategic role in the economy’s industrial competitiveness.
Markets turned defensive on Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated. Sovereign bond yields rose across the curve on both sides of the Atlantic, with eurozone peripheral spreads widening slightly. Concerns that surging oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures clouded other macro developments: in the US, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for June surprised to the upside, while Eurozone industrial production for April fell by more than expected.
Investors traded cautiously in the first session of the week as they pondered over the risk of a U.S. government shutdown (federal funding expires on September 30 unless Congressional leaders agree on a spending bill). The VIX rose, stocks were mixed, sovereign yields declined across the U.S. and the euro area, the USD weakened and gold rose.
Markets ended the week mixed. Sovereign yields were broadly stable on both sides of the Atlantic, with curves steepening slightly. In the US, short-term yields declined despite hawkish Fed commentary opposing further rate cuts. In the eurozone, October CPI came broadly in line with expectations (although core inflation surprised slightly to the upside). Very long-term yields rose following the French parliament’s rejection of a wealth tax proposal, which also widened the French spread.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, although yesterday brought some relative calm after the sharp volatility seen earlier in the week. Brent crude traded in a $80–85/barrel range before settling near $81, after President Trump said the US would protect shipping routes in the region. European natural gas prices fell back below €50/MWh. Equity markets continued to slide in Asia but recovered in the US and Europe, while the dollar stabilized around 1.16 against the euro.
Yesterday's session was marked by news that the US and Iran were resuming the strikes as the interim deal between the two countries to end the war was over. Energy prices peaked near European closing, with Brent crude reaching USD 80/barrel to further ease and close the session at USD 78. TTF closed the session up 5% at EUR 49/MWh.
The first few months of 2019 seem to confirm the positive tone of the sector in Spain, consolidating the excellent inbound tourism figures of recent years. While growth in the number of tourists visiting Spain is slowing down, their expenditure is still increasing significantly. The challenge is how to sustain these trends, redirecting tourism supply towards higher quality segments.
In the last session of the week, the mood was disparate in both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, losses in the main stock markets were moderate and broad-based, while in the U.S., the S&P 500 bounced back from the losses registered on previous days.
In the last session of the week, financial markets echoed the agreement reached by the U.S. and China in the phase-one trade deal and the results of the general election in the UK.
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In the first session of the week, investors traded in a lower volatility environment and weighed, on the one hand, the increase in covid-19 cases around the globe and, on the other, the possibility of additional government stimulus.
Investors traded on a cautious note in the last session of the week. Amid lower risk appetite, volatility rose, stocks declined across the board (particularly so in the U.S.), safe-haven currencies (such as the JPY and the USD) strengthened and commodity prices fell (the barrel of Brent dipped below $40).
Investors traded with a risk-on mood at the start of the week, reversing some of the losses of the previous sessions. In the U.S., tech stocks led the equity markets rebound, following comments by Fed officials, including governor Lael Brainard, reiterating that they see the spike in inflation as transitory.
In the last session of the week, financial markets generally assessed the long awaited speech of the Fed President in Jackson Hole as dovish. Jerome Powell affirmed the ongoing economic recovery, although he pointed to the evolution of the Delta variant as the main risk.
Financial markets started the week with one of their rockiest sessions since the 2008 crisis. The oil price war which had started over the weekend and fears over the economic impact of the coronavirus fuelled a sharp jump in risk aversion, leading to large losses in stock markets, sinking sovereign yields and a big widening in risk premia.
In the last session of the week investors traded cautiously amid doubts over the evolution of the pandemic in the US and as EU leaders ended their Friday meeting with no agreement on the EU recovery plan.