In 2019, the positive trend will continue in the tourism industry although the past few years΄exceptional growth rates are expected to diminish, in line with the slowdown observed in 2018. The big challenge facing the industry will be to consolidate its excellent performance regarding inbound tourism over the past few years while shifting its focus onto higher value added segments.
Search at CaixaBank Research
Search results
4534 results found for Roles of education in the development process
Dossier
Currency war?
Dossier
Banking, under pressure
Dossier
Pensions: a necessary debate
COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.
Spain's manufacturing industry suffered a severe setback in 2020 but the data show a rapid recovery, pending the impact of the European NGEU funds and with the automotive industry as a benchmark and driver of technological transformation.
Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.
Investors ended the week on a negative note, extending the losses after the change of tone by the Fed during the 15-16 June monetary policy meeting. In stock markets, the S&P 500 edged down by 1.3%, reaching a 4-week low. Future prices and the heavy losses during the Asian session point to further declines on Monday.
Financial markets started the week with mixed results. Investors balanced out the risk from the COVID outbreak in Europe with the re-appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed president and the nomination of Lael Brainard as the next VP, signaling policy continuity at the helm of the central bank.
In the last session of the week, investors' sentiment kept the upbeat tone seen on Thursday following the decrease in the October US CPI inflation figures. Money markets continued to price a lower monetary policy tightening from the ECB and the Fed than the one implied before the CPI release.
The US Federal Reserve meeting centered the stage in yesterday's session with a 25bp interest rate hike, as expected by the consensus. The description of the economic outlook was very similar to June's, while the president Jerome Powell recognized that the last CPI inflation release surprised them slightly on the positive side.
In the last session of the week, investors focused their attention on the disinflationary pressures in the US, after December PPI unexpectedly declined by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% in the previous month). In this context, yields on sovereign bonds declined on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly so in the short-end of the curve.
In the first session of the week, investors continued to reassess their expectations on the upcoming easing of the ECB and Fed’s monetary policy stance. The January PMI and ISM data releases showed a stronger-than-expected start of 2024 that decreased further the probabilities of seeing the first rate cut in April and May for both central banks.
In yesterday’s session, markets digested mixed economic data from the US. The ADP monthly employment report showed hiring at private companies grew at the slowest pace since the beginning of the year, a sign the labor market might be cooling. Instead, the sharp rise in the ISM services index from 49.4 to 53.8 pointed to a rebound in the sector.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% and signaled it will slow down the pace of cuts given its upward revision to the inflation forecast for the next two years. The Fed considered that the good health of the labor market and the little progress made on inflation in the recent months gives it room to act more cautiously from now on.
In yesterday's session, German bonds extended their decline, with the 10-year bund yield reaching 2.83%, and the euro appreciated against the dollar as the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%. President Christine Lagarde did not pre-commit to setting rates in any direction in the upcoming meetings, and warned of the uncertainty surrounding the effects of the trade war and increased defense spending.
The Spanish real estate market accelerated in 2024, supported by the easing of financial conditions and the strength of the country’s economy. In 2025, we expect that demand will remain very strong and, although supply will continue to gradually increase, the housing deficit accumulated in recent years will sustain significant price growth at levels similar to the current ones.
Markets were mixed in the first session of the week as investors remained cautious on the outlook of the global economy. In the euro area, sovereign bonds ended flat and the main stock indices edged lower as markets await further details on tariffs from the US. The euro area composite PMI rose to 50.4 this month from 50.2 in February.
The Spanish agri-food sector is approaching 2025 with renewed vigour, consolidating the growth path begun in 2023 and standing out for the dynamism of its exports. At the same time, it faces an increasingly demanding commercial environment, marked by new tariff barriers in key markets such as the US and China. Despite these challenges, agri-food maintains its role as an economic and territorial pillar, key to international competitiveness, regional cohesion and strategic autonomy.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, in a 10-2 vote, with Governors Cook and Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike. Markets now fully price in two further hikes in the first half of 2027. Treasuries sold off on the long end, as the 10-year yield rose to 5.02%, while the 2-year edged to 4.70%. In Europe, sovereign bonds were broadly stable and spreads contracted. Elsewhere, the BoC raised rates 25bp to 2.50%, while the RBNZ unexpectedly held rates, leading to sharp fall in the NZ dollar.