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The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, while striking a hawkish tone and projecting higher inflation. Chair Powell noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain but could add to inflationary pressures and weigh on activity. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, as expectations for a rate cut in 2026 declined toward 50%, while equities ended lower and the dollar strenthened.

Yesterday's session showed a risk-on sentiment, after news of Iran reportedly reviewing a peace proposal from the US increased the expectations of the conflict ending in the short term. Energy prices slid more than 2%, but have rebounded as of this morning as the strikes continue while the two countries review the terms.

European stock markets started the week on a positive note, with gains above 1% for most of the equity indices of the continent while in the U.S., the S&P 500 reversed part of the gains spurred by the Senate tax-cut measure.

European stock markets registered small gains in the last session of the week, while in the U.S. the main indices advanced further in the advent of the earning season's start.

Geopolitical events (the diplomatictensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia and the impositions of sanctions to Russia from the U.S.) had a muted effect on advancedeconomies' stock markets. In Europe, the mainstock indices experienced moderate losses, except in Portugal and in the U.K., while the S&P 500 remained unchanged. Instead, trade tensions between China and the U.S. weighted on Chinese equity indices.

Investors digested the Fed's third rate hike of the year (see our detailed analysis of the meeting here) with moderate stock market gains, relatively unchanged sovereign yields, and a mixed behavior in FX markets, where the euro eased to $1.16 while some EM currencies appreciated (such as the Turkish lira the Brazilian real) and others weakened (such as Argentina's peso).
 

Investors ended the week with mixed results, as fears intensified that inflationary pressures are building up across the globe. The headline HICP in the Eurozone rose to levels not seen since 2008 (3.4% y/y in September) while in the U.S. the PCE deflator remained elevated (4.3% y/y august).

In the first session of the week, investors sentiment worsened and stock indices declined across the board, led by the tech sector. The euro area Sentix Confidence Index fell by 2.7 points to 16.9 in October, the third consecutive decline.

Markets started the first two sessions of the week with mixed results, with fears about rising inflation and slowing growth remaining the key themes among investors, and ahead of the start of the Q3 corporate earnings season.

During a volatile session, financial markets ended the day with mixed results, after the U.S. CPI inflation report surprised to the upside (5.4% y/y in September after 5.3% in August). The data suggested that upward pressures on prices are broadening out, putting into question the view that the rise in inflation could be transitory.

In the first session of the week, investors traded with a risk-on mood ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting that starts today and concludes on Wednesday. We expect Jerome Powell to announce the beginning of the tapering of the net asset purchase programme, which could start in November and conclude in mid-2022.

In a session with low volumes due to the bank holiday in the U.S., investors traded with a risk-on mood, still supported by the better-than-expected economic data releases earlier on the week as well as the dovish signals in the minutes of October’s ECB meeting.

In the last session of the week, investors continued to digest the decisions taken by the main central banks in advanced economies. Although at different speeds, and with the exception of the Bank of Japan, all central banks shifted towards a tighter monetary policy despite rising COVID-19 cases.

In the first session of a week with low trading volumes, investors' sentiment kept the negative tone seen on Friday amid rising COVID-19 cases. In the US, Joe Biden's $1.75 trillion spending package was rejected in the Senate and contributed to the worsening economic outlook for the coming quarters.

During a volatile session, financial markets ended the day with further losses, as investors digested the more hawkish tone in the minutes of the December Fed meeting, which hinted at the possibility that policy interest rates could be raised “sooner or at a faster pace” than officials had initially anticipated.

In yesterday's session investors traded cautiously amid expectations of a faster monetary policy tightening from the Fed. Implicit interest rates are discounting the first rate hike in the spring, earlier than previously expected. The inflation report to be released this Wednesday and the speech by the Fed head Powell in Congress today will be key.

Investors traded cautiously in the last session of the week, still digesting the more hawkish shift by the major central banks and with a weaker-than-expected start of the Q4 earning seasons for US banks. Monthly data also showed a decline in retail sales (-1.9% m/m) and industrial production (-0.1% m/m) in the US in December.

Investors started the week trading with caution as they continued to digest the positive figures of the January's employment report in the US and took positions ahead of Thursday's release of CPI inflation. In the euro area, ECB comments moderated financial markets expectations for a big monetary policy tightening.

In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment remained cautiously optimistic, with the focus still on the pace of monetary policy tightening in advanced economies, corporate results (in the US, 76% of the companies that have released their profits have beaten consensus estimates) and geopolitical developments.

Yesterday, financial markets suffered another risk-off session amid rising concerns among investors about the impact the Russian-Ukrainian war may have on the global economy. According to inflation swaps, financial markets expect prices to increase in the short run, while the expected ECB and Fed policy tightening lost some steam.