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Yesterday's session showed sharp risk-off moves amid escalating Middle East tensions, with volatility picking up across assets. Brent rose to $77/barrel (briefly touching $80 during the day) and European natural gas climbed to EUR 44/MWh. Equities sold-off in Asia (-1%) and the euro area (-2%), while US markets showed relative resilience. The US dollar strengthened, gold advanced, and sovereign yields moved higher globally as investors moved into safe-have assets.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove a risk-off move across markets on Friday, with Brent crude rising above USD 100/barrel as concerns over energy supply disruptions intensified. Global equities declined, while the US dollar strengthened as a safe haven, pushing the EURUSD cross toward 1.14.

Central banks took center stage, with a broadly hawkish tilt across major economies. The ECB left the depo rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected, but highlighted stagflationary risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, as markets now fully price in two rate hikes in 2026, while the euro recovered and equities declined sharply.

Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply into the end of the week, as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets. Brent crude rose to USD 112/bbl while global equities sold off, led by US indices, with the Nasdaq now down around 10% from its recent peak.

Concerns over the economic growth impact of the Middle East conflict gained prominence, prompting a rotation into sovereign bonds after recent selling pressure driven by inflation fears. Equity markets were mixed globally, with sharp losses in Asia, modest gains in the euro area, and slight declines in the US.

Yesterday's session was a quiet one, with investors assessing mixed signals of the progress toward a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East conflict, while US President Trump threatened of increasing the strikes would the Strait of Ormuz not reopen before noon today. Brent crude prices closed near $110/barrel after a choppy trading session.

In yesterday’s session, investors traded with a focus on geopolitical developments ahead of the ceasefire deadline set by President Trump. Markets opened with a risk-off tone but pared losses as the session progressed, particularly in the US, and energy prices rose. An agreement was ultimately reached shortly after midnight CET.

As no major developments were reported in the Middle East, investors remained cautiously optimistic that US–Iran talks could resume in the coming days and the ceasefire will hold. Energy prices were broadly stable to softer, with Brent crude trading around $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €41/MWh.

Uncertainty continued to dominate markets in yesterday's session, as no progress was made in the Middle East conflict. The naval blockade of the Iranian coast and of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and peace talks have not been resumed. Market volatility ticked up and Brent prices continued to rise, reaching $105/barrel.

Investors ended the week on a cautious note as they assessed the prospects for renewed US–Iran talks over the weekend. Energy prices were volatile, with Brent crude finally settling around $105/bbl and European TTF gas near €45/MWh.

Risk sentiment improved late in the week as crude prices eased. European markets were closed on Friday for the May Day holiday, while US and OTC markets remained open. Here, risk sentiment was supported by lower crude prices for the second day in a row, following an Iranian proposal regarding negotiations with the US.

With no known progress on the peace negotiations in the Middle East, yesterday's session was driven by adjacent factors. Energy prices closed mixed as US Vice President JD Vance said neither side of the conflict wanted to take military action. Brent prices fell slightly to settle at USD 111/barrel while TTF prices rallied to close up 3%, at nearly EUR 52/MWh.

Yesterday's session had a rather quiet tone on mixed signals, as sources in Iran announced that differences between the counterparts in the Middle East conflict were beginning to shrink, although there were no advances on Iran's nuclear programme. Brent prices fell by more than 2%, while natural gas closed flat.

Investors opened the week with a risk-on tone after US officials, including President Trump, signalled over the weekend that negotiations with Iran were approaching an agreement. Trading volumes remained subdued, however, as several major markets, including the US and the UK, were closed for a bank holiday.

Yesterday's session was marked by a risk-off sentiment, as energy prices continued to rise amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes with reportedly the highest intensity since the ceasefire was started in early April. Brent crude prices were up nearly 2% and TTF natural gas prices were up 2.5%.

Financial markets were whipsawed on Tuesday, with an early equity rebound led by AI-related stocks giving way to renewed volatility after the US announced strikes on Iranian sites late in the session. In commodities, crude oil and natural gas prices fell, reflecting easing Middle East tensions earlier in the day before geopolitical risks re‑emerged towards the close.

Friday's session was driven by optimism, especially in the euro area, where Thursday evening geopolitical headlines (Trump cancelled the strikes that were planned on Iran and declared being close to a peace agreement) were put in price. This deal has been reached during the weekend, it will be signed on Friday and will imply the reopening of Strait of Hormuz.

Markets remained on a risk-on mode on Tuesday, with expectations of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices dropped 5% for the second consecutive session, settling at $79/bbl, a minimum since early March. TTF natural gas fell by nearly 2%, closing the session just below EUR 42/MWh, while the EUR/USD remained stable around 1,16.

The Fed decided to keep rates steady in its first meeting with Kevin Warsh as chair, opening the possibility of future rate hikes later this year. Investor mood soured on the hawkish bias, with US treasury yields rising significantly, especially in the short term, after retail sales numbers in May showed a stronger-than-expected economy.

As no relevant news came from the conflict in the Middle East, yesterday's session still had volatile energy markets but no major drivers. Brent crude prices closed nearly flat at USD 80/bbl, while TTF natural gas prices continued to ease, closing the session just above EUR 40/MWh. Volatility decreased after Wednesday's sharp increase following the Fed's meeting.