Friday's session was driven by optimism, especially in the euro area, where Thursday evening geopolitical headlines (Trump cancelled the strikes that were planned on Iran and declared being close to a peace agreement) were put in price. This deal has been reached during the weekend, it will be signed on Friday and will imply the reopening of Strait of Hormuz.
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Markets remained on a risk-on mode on Tuesday, with expectations of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices dropped 5% for the second consecutive session, settling at $79/bbl, a minimum since early March. TTF natural gas fell by nearly 2%, closing the session just below EUR 42/MWh, while the EUR/USD remained stable around 1,16.
The Fed decided to keep rates steady in its first meeting with Kevin Warsh as chair, opening the possibility of future rate hikes later this year. Investor mood soured on the hawkish bias, with US treasury yields rising significantly, especially in the short term, after retail sales numbers in May showed a stronger-than-expected economy.
As no relevant news came from the conflict in the Middle East, yesterday's session still had volatile energy markets but no major drivers. Brent crude prices closed nearly flat at USD 80/bbl, while TTF natural gas prices continued to ease, closing the session just above EUR 40/MWh. Volatility decreased after Wednesday's sharp increase following the Fed's meeting.
Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after US inflation surprised to the downside in June. The CPI print was driven by falling energy prioces but also softer core services, particularly shelter, overshadowing Warsh’s hawkish remarks in Congress, where he said he has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". Interest rate expectations for the Fed declined, with markets now pricing a second hike over the next 12 months with a 70% probability.
Market sentiment remained downbeat due to persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued weakness in AI-related market segments. In commodities, energy prices lacked clear direction, with Brent edging lower and TTF prices rising. The dollar strengthened modestly against the euro, on expectations of a resilient U.S. economy.
Markets ended the week on a cautious note, driven by a deterioration in investor sentiment towards the Middle East conflict and a selloff in tech stocks. Brent oil prices rose nearly 5% to close above $88 per barrel, and TTF gas surged towards €60 as the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf.
Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes weighed on investor sentiment and led to a volatile session. Energy prices rose, with Brent oil and TTF gas around $90 and €70, respectively. Stock markets declined across the board and the USD weakened against a basket of major currencies, with the euro strengthening moderately above $1.16.
Wednesday's session had a more mixed tone compared to Tuesday's broad selloff, with U.S. equities staging a partial recovery. European equities, however, remained under pressure, weighed down by higher sovereign yields. In FX markets, the yen strengthened against the dollar amid hawkish BoJ speak, while the euro remained roughly stable.
Stock markets posted gains across Europe and the US, while sovereign yields moved in opposite directions as they recorded mild declines in the eurozone and moderate increases in the US.
Stock markets were mixed in yesterday's session, with further gains in the U.S. and small declines in the Euro Area. In fixed-income markets, sovereign yields were stable ahead of the central bank policy meetings later this week.
Stock markets posted strong increases in the U.S. while they were mixed in Europe during the last day of the week.
Yesterday, stock markets rallied around the world while 10-year sovereign yields remained stable in the U.S. and declined in the Euro Area (particularly so in the periphery countries).
In the last session of the week, stock markets rose worldwide and sovereign yields ticked up in the U.S. and declined in the Euro Area.
Stock markets suffered losses for the third time in the week, with stronger declines in the Euro Area than in the U.S.
After the strong correction registered during the first weeks of February, global stock markets closed last week on a positive note with stronger increases in Europe than in the U.S., where they remained relatively stable on Friday.
U.S. stock markets registered strong gains during the last day of the week due to economic optimism after the publication of the U.S. jobs report that showed a solid increase in employment, with 313,000 jobs created in February.
Global stock markets started the week with slight gains, after the Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a positive signal to the market saying he backs globalization and the opening up of China's market.
On Friday, stock markets edged up in the U.S. and were mixed in the euro area (advancing in the periphery and nudging down in the core).
European sovereign yields edged up on the back of upbeat comments from the ECB's Chief Economist Peter Praet, which gave investors greater confidence in the ECB's intentions to gradually wind down net asset purchases in the coming months.