Global markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields advanced as investors eyed negotiations over the EU stimulus plan ahead of the European Council.
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In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously as they pondered over an uncertain economic outlook. Stocks rose moderately in advanced economies while exhibiting a better performance in emerging economies. In FX markets, the USD weakened against most AE currencies.
Investors traded more cautiously in yesterday's session -in spite of the meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials, in which they reaffirmed the implementation of the phase-one trade deal which had been signed in January. In this context, U.S. and EM stocks advanced moderately, while European stock market indices were mixed.
Investors' mood worsened yesterday amid increasing COVID-19 cases around the globe and worse-than-expected employment data in the US. In particular, initial jobless claims increased last week by 898k (+53k compared with the previous week), the highest level since August.
A week-long losing streak in global stock markets ceased on Friday as better than expected earnings results outweighed a worsening of coronavirus cases in the US and Europe. In Europe, the Eurostoxx50 ended the session 1.7% higher despite new coronavirus retrictions in some cities, while the S&P 500 edged up very slightly.
Positive news on another COVID-19 vaccine sparked a rally in financial markets at the start of the week. As Moderna reported that its vaccine was 94.5% effective (data from a preliminary analysis of a large late-stage clinical trial), stocks surged across the world, led by sectors sensitive to mobility restrictions, while at-home tech equities declined.
Investors turned more cautious in yesterday's session. Stocks declined across Europe (at yesterday's EU leaders' videoconference there was no progress on the veto that is paralyzing the EU budget and the NGEU package), while U.S. stocks closed moderately higher amid reports that Congress will resume negotiations on a fiscal stimulus.
Investors continued to trade cautiously in yesterday's session as COVID-19 cases continued rising in Europe and in the US. In this context, demand for safe assets (such as the Japanese Yen or the Swiss Franc) increased on a day in which US markets were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Investors started the week with fresh optimism as the EU and the UK are set to continue negotiating to reach a deal before the transition period ends by December 31st.
A new variant of the coronavirus in the U.K. triggered a global sell-off yesterday. The new variant, which is said to be up to 70% more infectious, sent stocks lower across the world.
Investors traded in a risk-on mood as markets head into the holiday period. Yesterday, sentiment was supported by news that the UK and the EU are on the verge of unveiling a trade deal (an announcement is expected today).
Investors traded in a negative mood on Monday amid a deterioration of the health crisis in the EU and the United States, following one of the best weeks for stock markets since November.
Tuesday's session was mixed, as investors weighed worries of further restrictions to stem the spread of the virus in Europe against prospects of additional fiscal stimulus in the United States.
Markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors worried over deteriorating pandemic dynamics (compounded by news suggesting that the British strain of the coronavirus could be deadlier) and euro area indicators pointed at a decline in activity in January (the area-wide flash composite PMI nudged down to 47.5 points).
Mario Draghi met Italy's president Sergio Mattarella on Wednesday and agreed to try to form a government of national unity after the recent collapse of the government coalition. It is however uncertain whether Draghi will be able to put together a willing coalition of parties.
Markets started the week showing greater risk appetite as the World Health Organization listed AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies, the USD weakened moderately and commodity prices edged up. U.S. markets were closed for the Presidents day holiday.
The sell-off in the US bond market continued on Monday as worries about inflation erode expected bond returns. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 3 basis points to 1.37%. These worries also hit Asian markets, where Japan's 10-year yields rose to 0.13% and Australia's rose to its highest level since June 2019 (1.61%).
Optimism about the economic recovery favored a rotation into cyclical equities as investors digested the U.S. Senate's approval of Biden's $1.9tn fiscal package. European stocks rose across the board while tech-related stocks sold off and weighed on the U.S.' Nasdaq and S&P 500 benchmarks.
Investors traded in a positive mood as the OECD signaled a brighter economic outlook. According to its updated forecasts, the world economy is set to grow by 5.6% and 4.0% in 2021 and 2022. The OECD estimates that spillovers from the U.S. fiscal stimulus will add more than 1pp to global growth.
Stocks rose across the board as Biden's $1.9tn fiscal package won final approval in the U.S. Congress and CPI data calmed inflation worries. In particular, U.S. CPI inflation rose to 1.7% yoy in February but core inflation nudged down to 1.3% (see our take and why we expect inflation to be under the spotlight in the coming months here).