In yesterday's session investors traded with a less optimistic tone amid rising global COVID-19 cases and new lockdown measures in Germany. Additionally, Fed President Jerome Powell played down concerns of an overheating US economy as he said that the increase in inflation "will be neither particularly large nor persistent".
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Markets ended the week with a risk-on session on Friday. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging markets, sovereign yield curves steepened and commodity prices advanced, while in FX markets the USD was roughly flat against major currencies.
Yesterday, markets traded more cautiously as investors eyed the Easter holidays. Stock markets were mixed, declining moderately in most regions while U.S. benchmarks closed slightly higher on the back of tech shares.
Investors continued to trade in a low volatility environment as comments from policy makers reiterated their intention to support economic growth. In particular, Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, urged the main economies to adopt an expansionary fiscal stance to secure a robust recovery.
Markets started the week in a cautious mood as investors pondered over pandemic dynamics and the economic outlook. Stock markets declined moderately across most advanced and emerging economies while commodities were mixed and FX markets were little changed.
Global stock markets advanced across the board in yesterday's session. U.S. stocks reached new record highs on the back of robust retail sales data (+9.8% mom in March), but gains were more modest elsewhere.
Investors closed the week with an optimistic tone. Positive corporate earnings releases and Q1 activity data in China (GDP rose by 0.6% qoq and 18.3% yoy, due to base effects) contributed to the improvement in sentiment.
Investors traded in a more cautious way in yesterday's session. U.S. and euro area sovereign yields nudged up on the back of a surge in U.S. consumer confidence (the Conference Board's index rose to 121.7 points in April, its highest level since February 2020), while global stock markets were mixed.
Markets ended yesterday's session with no major movements. Risk assets gained, with commodity prices and most stock markets advancing moderately, but U.S. equities nudged down as investors eyed Biden's presentation of the $1.8trn American Families Plan – to be financed with higher taxes on the wealthy.
Volatility rose and stocks sold off as investors focused on the outlook for supply shortages and inflation. Stock market losses were widespread across sectors and countries while commodity prices advanced, the USD weakened, and U.S. sovereign yields nudged up.
Yesterday, volatility rose amid investor inflation worries. U.S. CPI inflation jumped in April to +4.2% yoy (headline index, +1.6pp) and 3.0% (core index, +1.4pp). Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida reiterated the central bank's view that the inflation rebound is largely transitory as it is mostly driven by base effects and short-term supply bottlenecks.
Al conocerse ya los datos del PIB del 1T 2021 para muchas economías, se confirma que este año podrá leerse en dos capítulos: el de la expansión y el de la contención. Este mes destacan también las reuniones de la Fed y el BCE, los nuevos anuncios de planes fiscales y los riesgos de sobrecalentamiento en EE. UU. y el envío del plan de recuperación de España. Además, el análisis de datos internos revela el impacto de la crisis de la covid en términos de consumo e ingresos entre las generaciones y, una vez más, los jóvenes son los más perjudicados.
Rising COVID-19 cases in some regions and inflation concerns, particularly in the US, were yesterday's main drivers in financial markets. Fed Governor Richard Clarida, though, eased fears of an early monetary policy tightening as he said that April's disappointing employment report showed that further substantial progress has not been made yet.
The Fed held its benchmark short-term interest rate and said it will continue to buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. Policymakers now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024.
Investors are now debating when the Fed is likely to start trimming its monthly bond purchases, while the Bank of Japan announced it will unveil a new tool to support efforts to address climate change.
La buena marcha de la campaña de vacunación y los últimos datos de actividad del 2T invitan al optimismo. Sin embargo, siguen preocupando la inflación y el riesgo de sobrecalentamiento de la economía. Así nos lo cuenta Clàudia Canals en nuestro podcast mensual de junio.
In the last session of the week, positive economic data releases helped to improve investors' sentiment. June's consumer confidence in Germany rose to its highest level since August 2020 while in Italy it reached a record not seen since November 2018.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment worsened as COVID-19 infections increased in some parts of Asia and Europe, despite the vaccination campaign, and some countries imposed new limits to travel, especially from the UK.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with an optimistic mood following positive economic sentiment data releases for June in the euro area (EC Economic confidence rose from 114.5 to 117.9) and in the US (Conference Board consumer confidence at 127.3 from 120.0).
The S&P 500 Index closed at another record high as investors looked to a highly anticipated second-quarter earnings season, which will start today with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and PepsiCo Inc. European equities hit a record high with investors rotating out of cyclical sectors and into more defensive.