While the direct impact of an increase of US tariffs on China may be limited, perhaps the greatest risk lies in the indirect effects of an escalation of protectionism: an old rule of international trade is that there is no such thing as an unanswered tariff.
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The impact on the EU of a universal tariff on US imports of goods goes beyond the direct effect it will have on exporting companies, as it will also be felt indirectly across the economy as a whole and throughout European and global value chains.
The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors in 2025 and 2026 is strong. Although there remains a high level of uncertainty surrounding the rules that govern global trade, we expect Spain’s GDP to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and by 2.0% in 2026, in a scenario in which the trade tensions remain contained.
In recent years, the rise in house prices has intensified, becoming one of the main economic and social concerns in Spain. This phenomenon is largely explained by the housing deficit that has accumulated since 2021 due to a persistent gap between supply and demand. This housing deficit is significant (we estimate it amounts to around 4% of the stock of primary homes in Spain), and higher in certain provinces, major cities and tourist areas: precisely where we find the greatest upward pressures on prices.
This winter’s drought has highlighted one of the most important challenges facing Spain’s agrifood sector: improving how water resources are used given the prospect of their availability becoming more limited.
Enric is Head of Strategic Planning and Research and Chief Economist at CaixaBank. First degree from Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Master and Doctorate in Economics from the University of Chicago and a graduate of the Program for Management Development at IESE Business School. After earning his Doctorate, he worked for six years at the International Monetary Fund, monitoring various emerging economies and designing and negotiating a range of financial assistance programmes. He joined CaixaBank in 2006 and, since 2016, has led the Strategic Planning and Research team. He sits on the Executive Committee of the boards of FEDEA (Foundation for Applied Economic Studies), the Real Instituto Elcano, the Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) and the Institute of Political Economy and Governance (IPEG), as well as being a member of the Editorial Board of the Revista Econòmica de Catalunya, published by the College of Economists of Catalonia, and of the Expert Group for PwC's Consenso Económico.
José Ramon is Head of International Economics & Markets at CaixaBank Research. He has a Master's degree in Financial Markets from ICADE, a Bachelor's degree in Economic Sciences specialising in Economic Analysis and Quantitative Economics from the Complutense University (Madrid), and a Senior Management Programme from IE Business School to his name. Prior to joining CaixaBank, he worked as chief economist at Bankia and Caja Madrid. He has more than 30 years of experience in various fields related to macroeconomic analysis: monetary policy, country risk, the financial system, etc. During that time, he has combined his work as an economic and financial analyst with teaching positions at various institutions: CEU, ICADE, the Business Institute (Instituto de Empresa), etc. He is currently also a professor of Economic Structure at CUNEF.
Imelda is a senior economist in the Banking Strategy Department. With a Master's degree in Financial Markets from the Catholic Institute of Business Administration (ICADE), before joining CaixaBank she worked as director of financial systems at Bankia Research. Her main areas of research include the Spanish banking system, especially tracking business volumes, as well as the competitive and regulatory environment of the financial sector.
The restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus and caution due to the prevailing uncertainty led to a large increase in savings by Spanish households in 2020. Specifically, we estimate that cumulative savings from the pandemic reached €46.6 billion, 3.7% of 2019’s GDP. This sharp increase in savings has diminished as we have been able to return to our old habits, leading to a rapid recovery in consumption; a trend that will most likely continue in the coming quarters.
The automotive industry is an important driver of growth and prosperity worldwide due to its contribution (i) in social terms, by facilitating people’s mobility in an efficient, safe and affordable way, and (ii) in economic terms, as a driver of innovation, a generator of good quality jobs and a pillar of international trade. In the case of Spain, it has become a mainstay of our industry and a benchmark on a global scale, thanks to a large production capacity and high productivity resulting from a skilled workforce and a great degree of plant automation. The economic crisis caused by the pandemic has taken its toll on a sector that is in the midst of a technological transformation towards electrification. A necessary transition that will be strongly supported by the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds.
The war in Ukraine has fuelled fears of shortages of certain essential inputs for the agrifood sector, as Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global supply of cereals, oils and fertilisers, among other commodities. It is therefore not surprising that, following the outbreak of the conflict, the prices of agricultural commodities rose sharply on international markets. This price hike has been passed on to the production costs of Spain’s agricultural sector, a net importer of fertilisers and animal feed, and is also having an impact on the food prices paid by end consumers. Nevertheless, the most recent developments (agreements to release part of the grain retained in the Black Sea and good harvests in other producing countries) have helped to stabilise agricultural prices and reduce the risk of a global food crisis.
Climate change and the struggle to prevent it pose enormous challenges for agrifood production in Spain. In turn, improving the sustainability and resilience of the sector will be key to achieving the environmental targets set out in the European Green Deal. Agri-environmental indicators show that, despite some progress in recent years, the sector needs to tackle significant aspects, such as reducing the use of chemical pesticides, fertilisers and antimicrobials in agriculture, as well as improving animal health and welfare, increasing efficiency in the use of energy and water resources, promoting food consumption that is more sustainable and healthier and reducing food loss and waste, fostering a circular economy. The new CAP, with eco-schemes as its key measure, and the Next Generation EU funds will support the sector’s green and digital transition.
After the recent boom in tourism, of 2018 growth of international tourism slowed down in all regions of the world, with the exception of the Middle East where it increased substantially.
The distribution of consumer spending over the month, a key question for understanding consumer behaviour, has not yet been studied in the depth it deserves because of the scarcity of high-frequency public data. How do consumers allocate their spending week by week? How much more do they spend at the beginning of the month, which is when most people are paid? Do we consume with the same intensity regardless of our age or our income? Thanks to the use of CaixaBank’s internal data on a daily frequence, we are able to carefully analyse the time patterns of consumption and answer these questions.
2022 will be remembered not only for the intensification and persistence of inflationary pressures but also for the sudden shift in the direction of monetary policy, bringing to an end more than a decade of low rates and ultra-dovish policies.
We analyse individual CaixaBank customers’ direct debit electricity bill payments in order to understand how Spanish households’ electricity bills have evolved in 2022.
We analyse the recent trend in consumption in Spain based on data from the CaixaBank Research Real-Time Economics portal, which we have expanded with information on direct debit payments, as well as more detail on each individual sector and on the evolution of e-commerce.
The intensification of inflationary pressures, a phenomenon aggravated by the war in Ukraine, has led to a sharp shift in the direction of monetary policy. Mass bond purchases by the central banks are being left behind, while official rates are already being ratcheted up. In the financial markets, this change has been reflected in a sharp rise in sovereign debt yields – a trend which, due to their role as a benchmark, has also affected other financial assets.
We analyse individuals’ electricity bill direct debit payments made from CaixaBank accounts to determine how the increase in prices affected the finances of Spanish households.