The increase in energy prices throughout 2021 as a result of the combination of the sharp rise in global energy demand (due to the reactivation of the economic cycle) and a certain weakness in supply (due to geopolitical problems and the change in the energy model towards non-fossil fuels) has led to a global energy shock. In 2022, the geopolitical context is putting extra pressure on international gas and oil prices, which could aggravate the already significant impact of the energy bill on Spanish industry. This article examines the specific impact of rising energy prices on manufacturing, analysing which sub-sectors are being most affected and to what extent they are exposed to more sustained pressure on energy prices.
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The health crisis caused by COVID-19 has represented an unprecedented shock for Spain's tourism sector. Demand indicators confirm that the stoppage during the months of lockdown was total, both for international and domestic tourism. The end of the state of emergency and the recovery in international mobility within the EU have helped to revive flows of tourists to Spain. The outlook for the coming months points to a relatively rapid upturn in domestic tourism with a more gradual recovery for international tourist flows, although the delicate situation of the pandemic will still be a major source of uncertainty.
More and more people are renting their home. In the past 5 years, the percentage of households renting their main home has increased significantly: from 16.1% in 2013 to 17.8% in 2018. This strong demand for rental property has pushed up prices, especially in large cities and tourist resorts, although in the past few quarters there has been a slight moderation. With a view to the future, the demand for rented accommodation is expected to remain strong and, to avoid more pressure on prices, supply will have to grow in line with this demand.
The Spanish economy grew by 5.0% in 2021, a large figure by historical standards but slightly below expectations, considering that GDP growth rates closer to 6.0% had been forecast at the beginning of the year. Several factors, both internal and external, have moderated the strength of this economic recovery. Among the internal factors is the somewhat slower than expected implementation of the NGEU programme, leading to a modest recovery in investment. External factors include higher energy costs and problems in global supply chains, both of which have been considerably aggravated by the war in Ukraine.
According to the new CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator, the most energy-intensive branches of the manufacturing industry and the agrifood sector are the ones which suffered the most in 2023. At the other end of the spectrum we find sectors such as hotels and restaurants and the automotive industry, which performed rather well.
The coronavirus pandemic took the world by surprise and brought international tourism almost to a complete halt. The initial phases of a relative recovery are restoring connectivity between those outbound markets and tourist destinations that have controlled the spread of the coronavirus. However, the sector will have to undertake a far-reaching and rapid transformation to adapt to the new, post-COVID-19 international tourist who will demand more personalised, flexible and, above all, safer services.
The tourism sector’s improved situation was palpable by the end of November. The good figures posted in the summer were consolidated thanks to the season being extended to October and part of November. However, this positive trend has been hampered by the emergence of the latest wave of COVID-19 in Spain, related to the Omicron variant, raising doubts regarding the stability of the tourism sector over the coming months, which could see a negative start to 2022.
Inauguramos el curso económico de la mano de nuestro director de Economías y Mercados Internacionales, José Ramón Díez, a quien siempre es un lujo escuchar. Con él hablamos largo y tendido sobre las tormentas veraniegas que azotaron los mercados financieros y la situación de las principales economías desarrolladas, deteniéndonos en Alemania, la ambiciosa agenda de reformas del Informe Draghi, las implicaciones de cambio de tendencia de la política monetaria a raíz de las bajadas de tipos del BCE y de la Fed, y la carrera electoral a la Casa Blanca. Sin olvidarnos de España, cuyo crecimiento sorprende otro trimestre más.
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Nuestro director de Economía española explica el potencial de los datos en tiempo real y cómo los estamos utilizando en CaixaBank Research para monitorizar la economía. El vídeo forma parte de la colección «Formación sobre ruedas», una iniciativa de Accionistas CaixaBank para fomentar la cultura financiera.
En este episodio de Economía Exprés, Oriol Aspachs, director de Economía Española en CaixaBank Research, analiza el sorprendente crecimiento económico de España en 2024 y las previsiones para 2025. Un año en el que la economía seguirá creciendo, pero a un ritmo condicionado por la incertidumbre geopolítica. Con él exploramos el impacto de la política arancelaria de Donald Trump, los efectos de los avances de la Unión Europea en aumentar su gasto en defensa y la situación de los principales socios comerciales de la economía española.
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Dossier
Investment, the key to growth
Dossier
Inflation special: is it here to stay?
Nuestro director de Economía española explica a los accionistas de CaixaBank el nuevo contexto económico en el que los datos en tiempo real cogen protagonismo y ayudan a anticipar las dinámicas macroeconómicas.
En este episodio especial de Economía Exprés, celebramos los 500 números del Informe Mensual de CaixaBank Research con otro invitado de primera: José Ramón Díez, director de Economías y Mercados Internacionales. Conversamos con él sobre los primeros 100 días de Trump en la Casa Blanca y su impacto en la economía global, el nuevo escenario arancelario, la resiliencia de la economía española y los retos que plantea un mundo cada vez más incierto. Un episodio imprescindible para entender el nuevo tablero económico internacional.
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Dossier
India: the new Asian star?
El nostre director d’Estudis va presentar a la Societat Catalana d’Economia els principals resultats de l’estudi de l’impacte de la COVID-19 en la desigualtat, que estem duent a terme en col·laboració amb ICREA-UPF i que pots seguir a realtimeeconomics.caixabankresearch.com
This month we explore in depth the impact and implementation of the Next Generation EU funds in a new Dossier. We begin with an analysis of the status of the implementation of these funds at the European level, followed by an assessment of their impact and future challenges. Next, we examine how they are being managed in Spain, highlighting both current achievements and future expectations. We also address investments beyond NGEU, which are necessary in order for Europe to adapt and thrive in an environment as demanding as the current one. Finally, we compare the US model of economic transformation with the European approach.
Oriol Aspachs, Director de Estudios de CaixaBank Research, participó el 18 de noviembre en el XII Encuentro Retail de CaixaBank Payment & Consumer, analizando las perspectivas económicas globales, de España y del consumo.
Analysis of the economic impact of the Ucraine crisis in Spain
Las perspectivas del yen frente al euro para los próximos trimestres son de estabilidad general, aunque con un sesgo ligeramente favorable a la divisa japonesa. Las expectativas económicas para 2025 son algo mejores en Japón, y el Banco de Japón está endureciendo su política monetaria cuando el BCE está recortando los tipos de interés. No obstante, aunque el diferencial de tipos nominales a corto plazo sea favorable al yen, la principal fuerza directora de la divisa nipona (tanto frente al euro como frente al dólar) está siendo el diferencial de tipos reales a largo plazo. Este se debería mantener estable en un entorno al que, a las dinámicas monetarias, habría que añadir la diferente normalización de la inflación de ambas geografías (acelerándose en Japón y desacelerándose en Europa).