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After a year in which demand for housing exceeded all expectations, in 2023 we predict that the number of sales will adjust significantly, mainly due to the impact of higher interest rates. House prices, which tend to respond rather slowly to any fall in demand, will slow markedly although we expect them to maintain a slightly positive growth rate in 2023 (albeit adjusting in real terms due to high inflation). The supply of housing, which is insufficient to meet structural demand due to the creation of new households, will remain very limited as a result of the economic slowdown, high construction costs and waning demand.

The pork industry has consolidated its position as the most important sector for Spanish livestock farming, accounting for over 40% of final livestock production. It comprises around 86,500 farms and 2,600 processors, with most of its production concentrated in just three regions: Catalonia, Aragon and Castile & Leon. Recently, the pork industry has managed to handle the fall in demand due to COVID-19 better than other meat sectors, a result of it being less dependent on the hospitality channel and also the increase in demand from China, whose domestic production has been severely affected by African swine fever (ASF). This situation has allowed Spain’s pork industry to consolidate its position as one of the major players in the EU and the world. The challenges that now need to be tackled by the sector include reducing its pollutant emissions and continuing to strictly apply the necessary biosecurity measures to stop ASF from entering Spain.

The economic policies implemented during the pandemic have cushioned the impact of the crisis on families’ financial situation. On the one hand, a further fall in household income has been avoided while, on the other, the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy has led to a reduction in debt interest payments. A detailed analysis of the effort required by households to pay off their mortgages, based on CaixaBank’s own internal data, duly reweighted to be representative of the Spanish population, shows that these measures have managed to reduce the mortgage burden during the pandemic for most households, although pockets of vulnerability still remain among low-income households.

In June 2016, the United Kingdom’s vote in favour of leaving the European Union (EU) opened up a new scenario for the British economy that could have important repercussions for the Spanish economy and particularly for the tourism industry, which receives around 16 million British tourists a year1. In this article we examine the impact of Brexit on the number of British tourists visiting Spain and its potential impact in the future under different EU exit scenarios.

The full recovery of international tourism spending in Spain hides major changes in the structure of demand by region of origin. Using data on payments made with foreign cards on CaixaBank POS terminals, duly aggregated and anonymised, we see that Western Europe remains the main issuer of tourists, and that North America and Latin America significantly increased their share of foreign spending. In contrast, the recovery of tourism from the Middle East and Asia and Oceania has been more disparate, affected by geopolitical and economic factors. Overall, a stable but robust growth outlook for 2024-2025 indicates that international tourism in Spain will remain in good shape.

The Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR) for the Spanish economy could be an important catalyst for the real estate sector. With the help of European funds, the government plans to recondition half a million homes between 2021 and 2023, with the aim of improving their energy efficiency and thereby helping to achieve the agreed decarbonisation targets. The General State Budget (PGE) also proposes a notable increase in the funds allocated to increase the amount of rented social housing, a policy that is crucial as rents have become even less affordable for the most vulnerable members of the population.

The outbreak of war in Ukraine has overshadowed the positive outlook we were forecasting for the Spanish economy in 2022. While, at the end of last year, some factors had already appeared on the scene that hindered the economic recovery, the armed conflict in Ukraine has become the main focus of attention and the major conditioning factor for short-term economic developments.

In 2021, a milestone was reached that was hard to imagine a year ago: the mass vaccination of a large part of the population in advanced countries. Although new waves of infection are occurring, in those countries where population vaccination levels are higher it is likely that activity and travel restrictions as severe as those that have set the pace of economic development since the outbreak of the pandemic will not have to be reimposed.

Due to the pandemic, the current situation of the Spanish economy is very complex. The case of retail is no exception, although it is proving to be remarkably resilient in the face of all the restrictions on opening hours and capacity adopted in order to curb the pandemic. As revealed by the sector’s demand and employment indicators, retail trade is now close to, but below, its pre-COVID level. Despite this, an analysis of CaixaBank’s internal data shows very different figures for large and small companies, as well as for the different branches of activity, confirming that the sector has yet to recover completely.

This year and the next, the Spanish economy will enjoy strong expansionary momentum, supported by robust domestic demand and competitive advantages over its main European partners. Despite a challenging global environment, we forecast GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, supported by, among other factors, improved financial conditions supporting continued growth in private consumption and investment, population growth and relatively competitive energy costs. The sectoral analysis also reveals a broad-based expansionary cycle, which ranges from the best-performing sectors such as construction and pharmaceuticals to those that will grow at a more moderate pace, e.g. textiles and motor vehicles.

The indicators show that the growth rate of Spain’s tourism sector is normalising after the exceptional figures of 2022-2024, driven by the post-pandemic recovery and the consequent rebound in the consumption of services. The trends observed at the end of 2024 are continuing in 2025: the sector remains attractive to a growing number of international tourists, while the presence of resident tourists in local destinations is diminishing in favour of increased prominence abroad. Even so, this year the sector will once again be key for the Spanish economy. According to our forecasts, tourism GDP will grow by 2.7%, thanks to the solid start to the year, the increase in household disposable income, the revival of some European economies and the moderation of tourism inflation. 

The catering sector is continuing its good streak in 2025, with solid growth in spending thanks to the boost from both national and international tourism. Although the pace of growth has moderated compared to previous years, the data show a clear resilience, even after the power blackout on 28 April, which dealt a temporary blow to the sector’s turnover.

In 2024, tourism GDP experienced another year of significant growth, with an estimated increase of 6% in real terms, roughly doubling that of the economy as a whole. This performance was driven by a sharp rise in the number of foreign tourists and their average spending, thanks to a recovery of British and long-haul tourism. On the other hand, Spanish tourists are now travelling abroad again, resuming pre-pandemic levels. In this favourable context, the hotel sector continues to enjoy very strong demand, which has allowed it to continue to raise its occupancy levels and its profitability to new highs. Looking ahead in 2025, Spain’s tourism sector will grow at a slightly more moderate rate, although it still has significant support factors to continue expanding and we expect it to remain one of the main growth drivers of the economy as a whole.

The strong growth of the tourism sector in recent years, together with new consumer habits following the pandemic, has led to an extraordinary recovery of the Spanish restaurant sector, both in terms of job creation and turnover. It has also gained considerable international recognition and prestige, while at the same time playing a fundamental role in our country as a promoter of social and territorial cohesion.

The interest rate hikes being implemented by central banks in order to combat inflation are leading to concerns regarding the impact such tighter financial conditions may have on real estate markets. In many developed economies, house prices have risen considerably in recent years, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic, fuelling fears of real estate bubbles. Given this situation, the authorities in several countries have implemented a series of macroprudential instruments to cool down their market. However, in Spain the risk of a real estate bubble appears to be contained.

The Spanish economy is continuing to outperform expectations in 2025, with strong, balanced growth driven by investment and private consumption. This buoyancy is also evident in its sectors of activity: of the 22 sectors analysed in this report, 16 are undergoing an expansionary phase in 2025, compared to only 2 in 2023. The greatest momentum can be seen in industry, where growth is being led by the extractive, chemical, pharmaceutical and refining industries, thanks to high investment, productivity gains and adaptation to the energy transition. Construction and real estate activities are also performing strongly, boosted by residential demand. Although some sectors, such as the textile and wood industries, are facing structural challenges, the economy as a whole is moving towards a more sustainable and diversified growth phase. This climate, marked by a healthy labour market, lower interest rates and stimulus from EU funds, is strengthening the resilience of the Spanish economy in a global environment that is fraught with challenges.

Disruptions in global supply chains, present in markets since the end of 2020 due to the reactivation of demand after the worst phases of the pandemic, and later due to the effects of the war in Ukraine and the persistence of COVID-19 in Asia, affected activity in some manufacturing branches throughout the second half of 2021 and, above all, in 2022. In some sectors, the most intense episodes of difficulties for international trade forced production to be cut back on an ad hoc basis, or even to come to a halt. Logically, those industries most dependent on imports of raw materials and/or intermediate goods for their production processes, as well as those with greater complexity in their value chains, suffered the most.