Oriol Aspachs, Director de Estudios de CaixaBank Research, participó el 18 de noviembre en el XII Encuentro Retail de CaixaBank Payment & Consumer, analizando las perspectivas económicas globales, de España y del consumo.

In yesterday's session investors traded cautiously amid mixed economic data and hawkish comments by Federal Reserve members. US manufacturing PMI and ISM moved in opposite directions, both remaining comfortably above the 50-threshold, and US job openings in April confirmed that the labor market remains tight.

During a volatile session, financial markets closed the day with no clear direction, with investors taking position ahead of the crucial ECB meeting on Thursday and the release of the US CPI inflation on Friday.

Financial markets recorded yet another session with high volatility, with the key drivers remaining the direction of monetary policy, the escalation in tensions with Russia and the strength of the USD.

In yesterday's session, investors maintained their appetite for riskier assets, after a drop in the number of job vacancies in the US fueled expectations of a monetary policy pivot from the Fed. In this direction, the central bank of Australia decided to hike rates by 25bp, slowing down the pace of its tightening.

Investors started the week trading with a cautious approach. On the positive side, sentiment continued to be supported by expectations that the Chinese government could relax some of its COVID zero policy. On the opposite direction, data showed further weakness in China’s economic recovery.

Financial markets started the week trading with no clear direction, swinging between modest gains and losses across equity markets in Europe and Asia, during a session characterized by low volumes due to a national holiday in the US.

Investors started the week with no clear direction, with all eyes focusing on the release of the January CPI inflation print in the US today, where the consensus (according to Bloomberg) expects headline inflation to ease to 6.2% y/y (from 6.5% in December). The second release of Q4 GDP in the eurozone is also published today.

Investors started the week with no clear direction, focused on the US negotiations over the debt ceiling, which were due to start after markets closed. The opposition leader, McCarthy, said his Monday meeting with President Biden set the talks “on the right path” while Biden called the meeting “productive”, but no agreement was reached yet.

The week ended with markets trading without a clear direction as investors continued to monitor central bank officials' speeches to adjust their expectations of the timing of the first interest rate cuts, and as they awaited key economic data to be released this week. 

In yesterday's session, new data supported investors' expectations that interest rate cuts could begin this summer, which sent euro area and US sovereign bond yields down. Specifically, weekly unemployment benefit claims rose in the US, and the minutes from the ECB's March meeting confirmed officials are confident inflation is moving in the right direction.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, and hinted that if inflation readings continue in the right direction, a September rate cut "could be on the table." Markets reaffirmed their expectation of three 25bp interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2024. Treasury yields fell by +10bp, and US equities rallied.

Stock markets posted gains across Europe and the US, while sovereign yields moved in opposite directions as they recorded mild declines in the eurozone and moderate increases in the US.

Financial markets exhibited a mixed mood as European stocks nudged down and U.S. indices struggled for direction but closed with small gains.

Financial markets performed in opposite directions in both sides of the Atlantic.

After the extraordinary gains in U.S. equities registered on December 26th, financial markets remained volatile and performed in opposite directions across advanced economies.

As markets continue to struggle for direction, yesterday volatility declined and European and U.S. stock markets rose on the back of some positive earnings reports and as investors looked past weak economic releases.

Markets searched for direction as investors weighed an increase in coronavirus infections and policy announcements.

Markets were mixed in the last session of the week as investors looked for direction.