The umpteenth change in the economic narrative in recent months – this time going from soft landing to no landing – appears to work in favour of the central banks’ intention to stay on the current course, to continue to raise rates and, once the peak is reached, to remain in restrictive territory for longer than previously expected.
Search at CaixaBank Research
Search results
1226 results found for Viable rate mortgage
Despite being the world’s largest consumer of commodities, China lacks certain essential materials and relies heavily on imports, especially of oil, natural gas, copper, aluminium and nickel. To address this dependency, the country has implemented a long-term strategy that includes the stockpiling of strategic reserves, which could affect global commodity prices.
Undoubtedly, the two key questions on investors’ minds and the central theme of the financial markets for much of the year – particularly in the last month – have been when the ECB and the Fed will lower interest rates and how many times they will do so in 2024. Thus, in May and early June the markets saw volatility in financial asset prices as investors sought clarity on the central banks’ future decisions.
Hoy presentamos el Diagnóstico Estratégico de Castilla y León, el XVII y último volumen de nuestra Colección Comunidades Autónomas, para analizar las fortalezas y oportunidades, así como las debilidades y amenazas a las que se enfrenta la región castellano-leonesa.
Hoy publicamos el Diagnóstico Estratégico de Navarra, el volumen número XV de nuestra Colección Comunidades Autónomas, para analizar las fortalezas y oportunidades, así como las debilidades y amenazas a las que se enfrenta la Comunidad Foral.
The ECB has completed a monetary cycle, leaving the negative rates and unconventional measures of the last decade behind and significantly tightening monetary policy. During this cycle, the ECB has also adjusted the structure it uses to guide and implement monetary policy
There is increasing pressure on the ECB to start raising interest rates, something that has not happened since 2011. However, in the current context of an economic slowdown with a multitude of downside risks, is it desirable for the ECB to begin to normalise its monetary policy in the coming months? Would it be better to wait for economic growth to recover?
The outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and more recently the war in Ukraine, has accelerated the trend of decoupling between the US and China, and Europe also appears to have joined in, albeit somewhat timidly for now. We analyse the EU’s dependence on China in order to understand whether European strategic autonomy is possible, or even desirable.
The US Federal Reserve has just modified its monetary policy strategy to accommodate structural changes in the economy, committing itself to temporarily tolerating inflation rates above 2% and an inclusive view of the labour market. What are the implications of this adjustment?
In the other pages of this Dossier, we have analysed in depth how ageing will affect the capacity for economic growth and the public finances. All these changes will have consequences on the supply and demand for savings and, therefore, on the interest rates of economies.
Despite the unprecedented economic downturn caused by COVID-19, the cost of financing public debt is at an all-time low. To what extent do these interest rates lie behind the macroeconomic fundamentals?
Spain’s manufacturing sector has overcome a 2022 that was hit hard by the energy crisis and supply problems regarding some raw materials, preventing manufacturers from getting back to their pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, although the economic situation is still significantly uncertain, the outlook is somewhat more favourable than a few months ago: having weathered the more adverse scenarios observed during the winter, the economy continues to show positive signs thanks to the stabilisation of energy markets and the resilience of Spain’s labour market and household consumption.
Patricia is a Communications Specialist at CaixaBank Research. She has a degree in History of Art and in English Language & Literature from the Universitat de Barcelona. Before joining the Strategic Planning and Research Division, where she also worked as an editor, she was responsible for content management and website development of CaixaBank Group's corporate websites (such as "la Caixa" Foundation", Criteria and MicroBank). She has also worked in the field of teaching (as an e-commerce lecturer at ESCI-UPF), in literary translation and volunteering.
Léopold is an analyst in the Strategic Planning Department. He graduated from the Analysis and Policy in Economics programme at the Paris School of Economics, after studying at the universities of Panthéon-Sorbonne and Toronto. Before joining CaixaBank , Léopold had several experiences in both Europe and Latin America: he was an economic journalist at the French financial daily newspaper Les Echos and worked as an economist at the French Embassy in Buenos Aires and as an economist for Southern Europe at the Crédit Agricole Group. In Madrid, he coordinated the monitoring of macro-financial developments in Latin America, first at Telefónica and, more recently, at Mutua Madrileña, where he was also responsible for the analysis of monetary policy and the Spanish financial sector. Within the Strategic Planning team, his main areas of research include monitoring the macro-financial outlook in Spain and trends that could affect the supply and demand for financial services.
Ariadna is lead economist in the Strategic Planning Department. A Master in Economics and Finance from the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, before joining the Banking Strategy Department, she worked with the Macroeconomics team and, before that, she worked in Frankfurt as a Research Assistant for the European Central Bank in its department of International and European Relations, International Policy Analysis Division. Her areas of study mainly include the Spanish and Portuguese banking systems, focused on business volumes.
Mar is a Data Scientist in the Bank Strategy Department. A graduate in Physics and with a PhD in Remote Sensing, after a few years of postdoctorate work she joined the team of data scientists at KDP (a joint venture between AIA and CaixaBank), where she worked for 2 years as an external Consultant for CaixaBank, before joining CaixaBank Research.
Roser is a senior economist in the Strategic Planning Department. She earned an MSc in Economics with Distinction from University College London (UCL). Before joining the Banking Strategy Department, she worked as an economist for the Research Dpt. and, before that, as an economist at a boutique firm specialising in macroeconomics, as well as for a risk capital investment fund. Her areas of study include the impact of climate change and technology in the banking sector.
The severe restrictions imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in an unprecedented drop in consumption and thereby a record rise in household savings. A large part of these new savings has been involuntary, caused by the impossibility of maintaining the usual level of consumption. According to our estimates, the lifting of restrictions that started in May will encourage part of these involuntary savings to be spent on consumption, this being one of the keys to a rapid recovery of consumption in 2021.
The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors in 2025 and 2026 is strong. Although there remains a high level of uncertainty surrounding the rules that govern global trade, we expect Spain’s GDP to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and by 2.0% in 2026, in a scenario in which the trade tensions remain contained.
The food price rally has begun to slow, but the cumulative increase since 2019 is significant and expenditure on food now represents a higher percentage of Spanish households’ consumption. The decline in agricultural and energy commodity prices in the international markets relative to their peaks reached in 2022 should help to contain agricultural production costs and thus to further ease the inflationary pressures on food over the coming quarters.