Clàudia Canals participó en el “X Spain-US Business Forum”, celebrado el 11 de noviembre por la Spain-US Chamber of Commerce, con una revisión de las perspectivas económicas para los Estados Unidos en la que hace hincapié en el origen sanitario y el carácter global de la crisis, en la respuesta de la política fiscal, el apoyo de la Fed y la guerra comercial y tecnológica con China.
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After an exceptional 2023 for tourism in Spain, with record levels of international arrivals, spending, overnight stays and domestic tourism, the figures for 2024 are exceeding expectations and marking the best start to the year in the sector’s history. CaixaBank Research forecasts that tourism GDP will grow by 5% in 2024 (more than double the rate expected for the economy as a whole), with over 90 million visits by international tourists.
The rapid rise in house prices in many European countries during the pandemic has raised concerns about the possibility of a price correction in the coming quarters. Should we be worried in the case of Spain? Given the current macroeconomic scenario, we argue that there is no need for concern. This conclusion is largely due to the good financial health of households as a whole and to reasonable housing affordability in aggregate terms. Neither do we expect an upward spiral in prices: prices may pick up while the economy moves back to its pre-pandemic levels but, in the medium term, we expect house prices to grow in line with household income. We have confirmed this using CaixaBank Research’s new risk model (HaR).
The war in Ukraine has fuelled fears of shortages of certain essential inputs for the agrifood sector, as Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global supply of cereals, oils and fertilisers, among other commodities. It is therefore not surprising that, following the outbreak of the conflict, the prices of agricultural commodities rose sharply on international markets. This price hike has been passed on to the production costs of Spain’s agricultural sector, a net importer of fertilisers and animal feed, and is also having an impact on the food prices paid by end consumers. Nevertheless, the most recent developments (agreements to release part of the grain retained in the Black Sea and good harvests in other producing countries) have helped to stabilise agricultural prices and reduce the risk of a global food crisis.
The interest rate hikes being implemented by central banks in order to combat inflation are leading to concerns regarding the impact such tighter financial conditions may have on real estate markets. In many developed economies, house prices have risen considerably in recent years, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic, fuelling fears of real estate bubbles. Given this situation, the authorities in several countries have implemented a series of macroprudential instruments to cool down their market. However, in Spain the risk of a real estate bubble appears to be contained.
The slowdown in exports has been one of the main sources of weakness in the Spanish economy in recent quarters. Manufacturing is particularly dependent on sales abroad and has been the epicentre of the deterioration in exports of goods.
El acuerdo “last-minute” entre la UE y el Reino Unido y sus implicaciones sobre el comercio, la situación y perspectivas económicas de EE. UU. y la esperanza de que la COVID-19 nos haga afrontar definitivamente el cambio climático son algunos de los temas que destaca Clàudia Canals en nuestro primer podcast de 2021.
Nuestro Economista jefe comparte las perspectivas de la economía española para el año 2021, en este vídeo para los Accionistas de CaixaBank.
El 9 de febrer tres dels nostres economistes van compartir amb #AmicsdelPaís les “Perspectives econòmiques per al 2021, un any de canvi” de CaixaBank Research en un seminari online que reproduïm en aquest vídeo.
Oriol Aspachs, Director de Estudios de CaixaBank Research, participó el 18 de noviembre en el XII Encuentro Retail de CaixaBank Payment & Consumer, analizando las perspectivas económicas globales, de España y del consumo.
Al conocerse ya los datos del PIB del 1T 2021 para muchas economías, se confirma que este año podrá leerse en dos capítulos: el de la expansión y el de la contención. Este mes destacan también las reuniones de la Fed y el BCE, los nuevos anuncios de planes fiscales y los riesgos de sobrecalentamiento en EE. UU. y el envío del plan de recuperación de España. Además, el análisis de datos internos revela el impacto de la crisis de la covid en términos de consumo e ingresos entre las generaciones y, una vez más, los jóvenes son los más perjudicados.