Clàudia Canals participó en el “X Spain-US Business Forum”, celebrado el 11 de noviembre por la Spain-US Chamber of Commerce, con una revisión de las perspectivas económicas para los Estados Unidos en la que hace hincapié en el origen sanitario y el carácter global de la crisis, en la respuesta de la política fiscal, el apoyo de la Fed y la guerra comercial y tecnológica con China.

En nuestro último podcast del año, Clàudia Canals desgrana las claves de las perspectivas de la economía y los mercados financieros para 2021, con una mención especial a China, Estados Unidos y la situación de la economía  española.

Como cada mes, nuestra economista Clàudia Canals explica las claves de la coyuntura económica en el nuevo podcast de CaixaBank Research. A pesar de las medidas tomadas, Europa sigue yendo un paso por detrás de EE. UU. y por supuesto de China, la única gran economía que creció en 2020. En España, los indicadores de actividad correspondientes al 1T muestran que probablemente el PIB se habría contraído, aunque el mercado laboral recuperara en marzo parte del terreno perdido. En este sentido, nuestras previsiones para la economía española (un 6,0% en 2021) se emplazan algo por debajo de las del Gobierno y las del FMI.

Estamos asistiendo a un progresivo movimiento de muchas economías hacia zonas del ciclo económico paulatinamente menos afectadas por la COVID-19. "Menos afectadas" no significa en absoluto que no haya impacto (los coletazos de la variante delta todavía están entre nosotros). Tampoco implica que la posición hacia la ansiada normalización sea la misma para todos los países. Así nos lo cuenta Clàudia Canals en el podcast de septiembre.

In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid ongoing talks between Russian and Ukrainian authorities, although during the weekend Russia intensified aerial attacks on the western part of Ukraine. This week talks are expected to continue between both countries and officials from China and the US will also hold a meeting.

Volatility continued to dominate across financial markets in yesterday's session, with the key drivers being mixed earnings reports, the expectation of a tighter monetary policy from the Fed and the ECB, uncertainty surrounding the economic effects of the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China.

Investors continued to err on the side of caution at the start of the week, with the focus turning to the risk of a global recession amid expectations of further monetary policy tightening from major central banks and the ongoing deterioration in the COVID pandemic in China.

Risk appetite continued to set the tone on Tuesday, as investors shrug off data showing GDP stalled in China in Q4, mixed results from some US banks during the Q4 earnings season and hawkish messages from some ECB officials.

Investors traded with a risk-on mood on Wednesday. The main drivers were a rally in tech stocks, boosted by the restructuring plans from China’s Alibaba Group, as well as receding fears of contagion from the banking turmoil.

With no major macro data to trade on, financial markets continued to digest President Trump's first executive orders. Overall, investors were relieved that tariffs were not imposed on the first day, and while Mexico and Canada appear to become the first targets, a more gradual approach towards China and Europe is now expected.

In yesterday's session, global stocks rose for a ninth day, boosted by comments from US President D. Trump, in a virtual participation at Davos, hinting at a potentially softer approach to tariffs on China. He also urged OPEC to lower crude prices and said he will push for interest rate cuts.

Risk-off mode in financial markets during yesterday's session as investors digested the US Administration's announcement on Saturday of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Tariffs on Mexico were paused later in the day, adding more uncertainty around US tariffs policy, its duration, and its magnitude.

Sentiment recovered during yesterday’s session, as investors digested the announcement that US tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be delayed for at least one month. Trade war uncertainty, however, concentrated in Asia, as China announced retaliatory tariffs on targeted products coming from the US, to take effect next Monday.

Generalized risk-off session as trade tensions intensified. Following the new round of US tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese imports, China imposed a 10-15% tariff on US agricultural products, Canada announced 25% tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports, and Mexico stated it would announce tariffs over the weekend.

Financial markets started the week in a quiet mood as investors awaited the beginning of the earnings' season, the ECB meeting and more clues on the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

Investors ended the week in a positive note on the back of improving economic indicators in China.

Trade tensions between U.S. and China increased as the U.S. Administration announced that it will impose tariffs on Chinese goods.

Geopolitical events (the diplomatictensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia and the impositions of sanctions to Russia from the U.S.) had a muted effect on advancedeconomies' stock markets. In Europe, the mainstock indices experienced moderate losses, except in Portugal and in the U.K., while the S&P 500 remained unchanged. Instead, trade tensions between China and the U.S. weighted on Chinese equity indices.