Having laid out the complex trade relationship between the United States and China, we continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers, focusing on the European Union.
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The resilience shown by the international economy at the aggregate level, which is quite remarkable given the significant geopolitical uncertainty and restrictive financial conditions dominating the scenario, reflects disparate dynamics among the various international economies, with each one seeking to make an orderly landing amidst their own challenges. The US is experiencing strong growth and is seeking to normalise towards more sustainable rates, while the euro area is showing signs of less apathetic growth and China maintains mixed dynamics between industry and domestic demand.
COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.
Luís is an economist for the International Economics & Markets Department. He has a PhD in Economics from Cardiff University and a Master in International Economics and European Studies from Lisbon University. Before joining CaixaBank, he was Visiting Assistant Professor in Economics and the Public Sector at Pompeu Fabra University and a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and Centre for Research in Health and Economics (CRES-UPF). His areas of study include public economics and macroeconomics and particularly international fiscal policy, specialising in monitoring China and the European Uninon.
The current conflict between Iran, the US and Israel marks a new supply shock that is once again straining global value chains. This episode is the latest in a string of disruptions to global trade, such as the Trump administration’s tariff policy, the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. It also reinforces the need to diversify supply markets, avoiding major unilateral dependencies, and to work towards greater European production capacity. This message is particularly relevant in strategic areas for medium- and long-term growth, such as technology, healthcare, defence, and the dual green and digital transition.
Spain’s agrifood sector is facing a new trade scenario marked by the US tariff hikes, with the rate currently set at 15% for European products pending clarification regarding possible strategic exceptions. In a context of increasing protectionism and weakening multilateralism, the sector is seeking ways to adapt by diversifying its markets and pursuing bilateral agreements through the EU. The agreement with Mercosur opens up opportunities for key products such as olive oil, wine and pork meat, but it also poses risks for competition in sensitive sectors such as beef and rice. Despite this, the competitiveness and diversification of Spain’s agrifood sector places it in a favourable position to tackle this challenging environment.
The full recovery of international tourism spending in Spain hides major changes in the structure of demand by region of origin. Using data on payments made with foreign cards on CaixaBank POS terminals, duly aggregated and anonymised, we see that Western Europe remains the main issuer of tourists, and that North America and Latin America significantly increased their share of foreign spending. In contrast, the recovery of tourism from the Middle East and Asia and Oceania has been more disparate, affected by geopolitical and economic factors. Overall, a stable but robust growth outlook for 2024-2025 indicates that international tourism in Spain will remain in good shape.
The agrifood sector has continued to perform well since the most critical months of the pandemic. Primary sector production remains at a high level, the food industry is recovering from the slump experienced in 2020 and demand indicators suggest food consumption patterns are gradually getting back to normal, both in and outside the home. Agrifood exports are also booming, a lever of growth that will continue to be vital for the sector’s future.
Executive summary. Expansion, resilience and new challenges for the Spanish agrifood sector
Agrifood
Made in Spain, Made in the USA and even Made in China labels make less and less sense in today’s world. Since firms decided to fragment their production processes and move them to other countries, the label Made in the World probably better represents the nature of most of the manufactured goods we consume. In this article we review the past, present and future of global value chains at a time when pandemic-induced restrictions on travel and supply disruptions have brought them back into the spotlight.
2025 will be a year in search of a new normal, threatened by the division between economic blocs. The best outcome would be to regain multilateral cooperation in order to tackle the new challenges and spread the risks together.
In our revision of the international forecast scenario, we maintain the assumption that the bilateral tariff between the US and the EU will be 10%. We also maintain the assumption that the tariffs between the US and China will reach a level of 60% in 2025 (an increase of 45 pps compared to December 2024), but now this increase is not anticipated to take place as gradually as we previously thought.
Global supply chains have been shaken once again following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent spread of the conflict to other countries in the Middle East. Subject to uncertainty over the shock’s severity and duration, this episode is shaping up to be the greatest disruption to international trade since COVID-19.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the noise caused by the geopolitical context and focus on the signal coming from macroeconomic data. The sense of vulnerability is heightened by the unpredictability surrounding the pace of change in the old international order.
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a critical area of economic and strategic competition among the major powers, and its development depends both on the dynamism of the private sector and on state action. Together, they shape the scope and effects of a technology whose complex ecosystem spans innovation and its monetisation, positioning in the value chain, its diffusion and adoption, and the management of its externalities. This article reviews – from a geoeconomic perspective – the strategies adopted by the US, China and the EU in key areas such as regulation, the role of the state in the industrial model, public support instruments, and cross-cutting policies such as professional training and sustainability. We conclude with a reflection on the future interaction of these governance models and the potential areas of friction and cooperation that may arise.
Since the beginning of 2018, the Trump Administration has adopted a more belligerent tone in trade policy: for example, it has increased tariffs on Chinese imports worth 250 billion dollars, it has added Huawei to the list of companies that require government approval to purchase US technology, and it is studying tariffs on auto imports. This can be seen in the following chart.
Stable economic outlook but with increasing risks: geopolitical instability, uncertainty and a lack of confidence.
Is the Trump administration’s strategic shift compatible with the United States’ role as a guarantor of the international economic equilibrium?
In the context of our revision of the international economic outlook, the aim of this article is to clarify, on the one hand, the US’ current tariff policy and, on the other, to summarise the response from its main trading partners and the state of the ongoing negotiations.
The global economy demonstrated notable resilience during 2025, providing a good starting point for 2026, such that the global economy could continue to grow at a rate of around 3%, with globally stable inflation. However, the risks to the baseline global scenarios have increased significantly following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran, which has triggered a surge in oil and gas prices and turmoil in the financial markets.