Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
As US-Iran talks resumed yesterday, Brent crude prices closed the session flat, while TTF natural gas prices advanced slightly, to settle above EUR 43/MWh. In other commodities, gold posted its biggest quarterly losses in a decade, closing around 4,000$/once, while market volatility eased.
Contradictory headlines from the Middle East drove Monday’s session. After a weekend in which hostilities surged between the US and Iran, President Trump announced that negotiations were to be resumed on Tuesday. Despite this, energy prices rose, especially TTF natural gas, that settled above EUR 42/MWh, and market-implied volatility dropped.
Investors' risk appetite remained subdued on Friday, as lower oil prices prevailed despite heightened disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where a UK Navy-confirmed tanker strike on late Thursday temporarily raised maritime threat levels.
Risk sentiment improved on Thursday, before late-session Hormuz tensions soured it. In commodities, crude oil prices reversed course and ended the day rising after of a missile strike on a container vessel in Hormuz, while natural gas prices of European benchmarks fell. Gold rose on safe-haven demand.
Wednesday saw a mixed session, as easing geopolitical tensions drove down commodities and sovereign yields, while equities remained pressured by concerns around tech companies' valuations. In commodities, energy prices declined, led by Brent crude, while gold fell on the back of a stronger dollar and higher expected real rates.
On yesterday's session, markets kept a positive tone, as the US-Iran peace talks progressed and the US Treasury allowed Iranian oil sales, easing supply risks. Oil prices fell more than 3%, the dollar rose slightly, while the pound edged up higher on the announcement of PM's Keir Starmer resignation and the prospect of an orderly leadership transition.
Friday's session was volatile, after Iran postponed further peace negotiations with the US until Israel stopped striking Lebanon. The ceasefire between the countries was reached later in the session, which triggered a positive reaction that was almost immediately reversed. US markets were closed due to Juneteenth holiday.
As no relevant news came from the conflict in the Middle East, yesterday's session still had volatile energy markets but no major drivers. Brent crude prices closed nearly flat at USD 80/bbl, while TTF natural gas prices continued to ease, closing the session just above EUR 40/MWh. Volatility decreased after Wednesday's sharp increase following the Fed's meeting.
The Fed decided to keep rates steady in its first meeting with Kevin Warsh as chair, opening the possibility of future rate hikes later this year. Investor mood soured on the hawkish bias, with US treasury yields rising significantly, especially in the short term, after retail sales numbers in May showed a stronger-than-expected economy.
Markets remained on a risk-on mode on Tuesday, with expectations of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices dropped 5% for the second consecutive session, settling at $79/bbl, a minimum since early March. TTF natural gas fell by nearly 2%, closing the session just below EUR 42/MWh, while the EUR/USD remained stable around 1,16.
Risk sentiment improved on Monday, after reports during the last hour of the weekend announced a deal reached by the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although its details are yet to be defined. TTF natural gas fell by more than 9%, closing the session at EUR 42.5/MWh, while Brent crude prices dropped nearly 5%, settling just above $83/bbl. Market implied volatility sharply fell sharply for the second consecutive session.
Friday's session was driven by optimism, especially in the euro area, where Thursday evening geopolitical headlines (Trump cancelled the strikes that were planned on Iran and declared being close to a peace agreement) were put in price. This deal has been reached during the weekend, it will be signed on Friday and will imply the reopening of Strait of Hormuz.