Sentiment recovered during yesterday's session following a stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for June (+0.6% mom vs. 0.1% expected, and up from -0.9% in May), highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy. Global stock markets advanced and the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high.
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Markets ended the week in a cautious mood. Stocks were mixed, with European indices suffering moderate losses while the S&P 500 ended largely unchanged after having dipped earlier in the session. The earnings season kicked off with mostly solid results. Bitcoin closed "Crypto week" little changed (Trump signed the GENIUS Act on Friday).
Investors traded with caution in the first session of the week. Looming trade negotiation deadlines and the EU's possible retaliatory measures triggered safe-haven flows and a rally in global bonds, with sharp declines in 10-year euro area sovereign yields and narrower peripheral spreads. Gold rose and the EUR strengthened towards $1.17.
Markets had a mixed session yesterday. Sovereign yields continued to decline across the U.S. and euro area, while the EUR crawled back above $1.17 and touched a 10-day high. European stock markets were mixed while the U.S.' S&P 500 wavered. This morning Japan's Nikkei rallied on the back of a U.S.-Japan trade deal that would set tariffs on Japan at 15% (incl. cars).
The announcement of a U.S. - Japan trade deal and hopes of a deal between the EU and the U.S. unleashed investors' risk-on sentiment in yesterday's session. Global stock markets rallied and sovereign yields declined across the board. Safe-haven assets (such as gold and the CHF) retreated while the EUR strengthened towards $1.18.
The risk-on mood triggered by trade negotiations continued to support markets but lost some steam in yesterday's session. Sovereign yields rose on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, while euro area and U.S. stocks posted moderate gains with a mixed sectorial performance (European banks rallied on favorable earnings and higher rates).
Markets ended the week with a mixed session. Optimism over trade deals continued to support U.S. equity markets, sending the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to new record highs, while euro area stocks ended mostly lower as investors traded cautiously awaiting news of a trade deal. Sovereign yields were little changed after the ECB meeting and Trump's visit to the Fed.
Initial optimism over the EU-U.S. trade deal, which had boosted European stocks early in the trading session, soon faded and the region's main indices closed lower with losses led by German stocks (-1%). U.S. stocks had a choppy session and ended mostly flat, while large-cap tech stocks edged higher. The euro slipped to just below $1.16, its lowest in over a month
Euro area investor sentiment recovered following the EU-US trade deal, sending stocks higher across the region. In the US, investors traded in a risk-off mood on news that, after two days of negotiations in Stockholm, Chinese and US officials failed to deliver a trade deal and agreed only to seek an extension of the 90-day tariff truce. Stocks fell, and Treasuries rallied.
La COVID-19 está teniendo un fuerte impacto en la actividad económica y el sector inmobiliario, aunque no sea uno de los más perjudicados, también se está viendo afectado. En CaixaBank Research esperamos que el PIB de España retroceda entre un 13% y un 15% en 2020, y que no recupere los niveles precrisis hasta finales de 2023. A pesar de la gravedad de la situación y la elevada incertidumbre sobre la futura evolución de la pandemia, es importante resaltar que el sector cuenta con unos fundamentos mucho más sólidos que en la anterior crisis de 2008.
La COVID-19 está teniendo un fuerte impacto sobre la actividad económica de España y, en particular, sobre el sector turístico. En CaixaBank Research esperamos que el PIB retroceda entre un 13% y un 15% en 2020, y que no recupere los niveles precrisis hasta el año 2023. En lo que respecta al sector turístico, las perspectivas son incluso más adversas para el año 2020, al ser uno de los sectores más afectados por la pandemia.
The Fed held its benchmark short-term interest rate and said it will continue to buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. Policymakers now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024.
Investors are now debating when the Fed is likely to start trimming its monthly bond purchases, while the Bank of Japan announced it will unveil a new tool to support efforts to address climate change.
El comercio minorista es uno de los principales sectores de servicios de la economía española. Es un sector empresarialmente atomizado, especialmente intensivo en empleo y con una presencia muy extendida por todo el territorio nacional. En su conjunto, se ha mostrado mucho más resiliente que otros servicios a los efectos de la pandemia, en parte gracias a la extraordinaria capacidad de adaptación a los canales de venta on-line, acelerando así una tendencia que se venía afianzando desde hace años y que cuantificamos en este informe a partir de datos internos de CaixaBank. Para 2021, las perspectivas del comercio minorista son de recuperación gracias a los avances en la campaña de vacunación, que permitirán una retirada, progresiva pero rápida, de las restricciones al comercio y la movilidad, incluida la internacional, durante el 2T 2021.
Last Friday, investors' sentiment worsened amid rising COVID-19 cases, now more contagious with the Delta variant.
Monthly analysis of Spain’s economic and financial outlook and its long-term prospects.