Investors seemingly recovered some appetite for risk in yesterday's session. Stock markets rose moderately across advanced economies and sovereign yields increased both in the U.S. and Europe. The euro reversed Monday's gains and fluctuated close to $1.17 while commodity prices were mixed.
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U.S. equity markets reached new highs, led by technology, as sovereign yields declined after producer prices fell more than expected in August (-0.1% m/m), driven by lower services prices. The data reinforced market expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. In Europe, major indices closed mixed, with the notable gains in the IBEX-35 and the defense sector.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session. Global stock markets advanced and U.S. sovereign yields nudged down as the U.S. CPI report did not depress investor expectations about Fed cuts. In Europe, the euro strengthened on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, German sovereign yields nudged up but peripheral spreads ticked down.
Investors ended the week with a mixed session. Euro area sovereign yields continued to rise on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's tone, while US yields had only modest gains following sessions with sharp declines ahead of the Fed's meeting. The euro-dollar cross remained at 1.17 and stocks were mostly flat on both sides of the Atlantic.
Positive session for stock markets in the U.S. and the euro area, with declines in sovereign bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday. The euro appreciated slightly against the dollar, rising to 1.176.
Investors traded cautiously during yesterday's session ahead of the FOMC meeting today, in which the Fed is expected to lower interest rates by 25bp (see our take here). US Treasury yields edged down, euro area sovereign yields were flat, and stocks fell on both sides of the Atlantic. The euro rose against the dollar to its highest in 4 years, close to 1.187.
Markets had a choppy session on the day of the FOMC's meeting. US Treasury yields initially fell, stocks gained and the dollar fell on the announcement of the widely expected 25bp rate cut. But all later reversed course as investors digested a disperse dot plot which signaled a large group of the FOMC still remains hawkish. Treasury yields rose and stocks ended mostly flat.
Global stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new record highs, while sovereign bond yields rose on both sides of the Atlantic.
On Friday’s session investors traded cautiously as they continued to digest a more-hawkish-than-expected read on recent monetary policy path indications. Sovereign bond yields slightly increased on both sides of the Atlantic and equities were mostly flat, while the dollar slightly strengthened. On the commodities side, metals prices rebounded, while oil prices dropped as worries of declining demand strengthened.
Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious tone. US Treasury yields continued to tick slightly higher, following the tendency of the last sessions. Global equities were mixed, rising in the US and declining across the euro area. A study published by the ECB found eurozone consumers have been shifting away from US goods and reducing overall discretionary spending.
With little macro news to trade on, markets had a somewhat quiet session. Sovereign yields were mostly flat around the largest economies, with the exception of the US, where an increase in supply of government bonds drove long-term yields slightly higher. The dollar strengthened, following Fed's chair Powell cautious comments regarding future easing.
In the US, the latest revision of Q2 GDP growth confirmed the economy is expanding at a stronger pace driven by resilient personal consumption and solid private investment. Investors pared back expectations for future Fed rate cuts to four by the end of 2026. This shift pushed Treasury yields higher.
Investors recovered some risk appetite in the last session of the week. Advanced-economy stocks rebounded after a few mixed sessions, while the USD weakened on expectations that the Fed may continue cutting rates in the coming weeks. Commodity prices rose across the board.
Investors traded cautiously in the first session of the week as they pondered over the risk of a U.S. government shutdown (federal funding expires on September 30 unless Congressional leaders agree on a spending bill). The VIX rose, stocks were mixed, sovereign yields declined across the U.S. and the euro area, the USD weakened and gold rose.
Stocks rose while sovereign yields and the USD were little changed and gold advanced as investors eyed a looming U.S. government shutdown (which just began this midnight). In commodity markets, the barrel of Brent declined to $67 as investors continued to brace for an OPEC+ output hike next month.
Markets seemed to shrug off the U.S. government shutdown in yesterday's session. Global stocks rose and U.S. sovereign yields declined amid weak U.S. labor market data. Euro area sovereign yields were little changed, and the euro held steady at $1.17. Gold also steadied after having rallied in the last few days.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session as the U.S. government shutdown clouded data releases. Technology equities drove the U.S.' Nasdaq to record highs, while the S&P 500 was barely changed and euro area stocks were mixed. Sovereign yields nudged down and the USD inched higher. Brent oil prices continued to fall ahead of the weekend's OPEC+ meeting.
Investors ended the week with a mixed session as the US government shutdown, which prevented the release of the employment report, clouded sentiment. Sovereign yields edged lower in the euro area and stocks mostly advanced, while US Treasury yields ended higher, and equities were mostly flat weighed down by the underperformance of tech stocks.
Following the resignation of French premier Lecornou, French assets sold off with stocks paring losses and the yield on the 10-year sovereign benchmark rising to push the country's risk premium to 85bp, above Italy's. Contagion to the rest of the euro area was limited, with peripheral risk premia stable and stocks paring mild losses. The EURUSD held at 1.17.
Without relevant macro data to trade on, no advances in negotiations to reopen the US government, nor any new developments in France, markets traded cautiously during yesterday's session. Euro area sovereign yields ended mostly flat while US Treasury yields edged lower, and stocks retreated globally. The euro weakened to 1.16 against the dollar.