Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after senior officials from Iran and the US confirmed that the truce remains in place and that negotiations are ongoing. In this context, crude oil prices fell, although Brent remained around USD 110 per barrel.
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Markets traded higher on Wednesday as optimism that the US and Iran were nearing a deal to ease hostilities pushed crude oil and natural gas prices sharply lower.
Risk sentiment weakened progressively on Thursday, as early optimism over potential progress in US‑Iran talks faded by reports of skirmishes near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had again lifted restrictions on US military access to their airspace and military bases.
Risk sentiment was mixed on Friday's session, as counterparts in the Middle East conflict remained unable to reach a peace agreement, even though President Trump announced that the ceasefire continued to hold. Energy prices ticked up, with Brent settling above $101/barrel.
Yesterday’s session reflected renewed caution over the prospects for a resolution of the Middle East conflict, as negotiations between the US and Iran remained deadlocked, with President Trump describing Tehran’s latest proposal as “totally unacceptable”. Brent settled above $104/barrel and volatility ticked up.
Yesterday's session was driven by increasing concerns over extended energy supply disruptions, as differences between the US and Iran regarding the negotiated terms make a peace agreement hard to reach. Energy prices climbed, with Brent up nearly 4%, while TTF posted more modest gains.
With no meaningful progress in the peace negotiations between the US and Iran, market focus shifted toward macroeconomic data releases and earnings results. Investors also remained attentive to President Trump’s arrival in China for talks with President Xi Jinping, where discussions are expected to focus on the implications of the Middle East conflict and on efforts to ease trade tensions between the two countries.
Risk sentiment remained broadly positive for another session, as investor focus continued to shift away from Middle East tensions, with no major developments and stable energy prices (Brent crude around $105/barrel), toward macroeconomic data, corporate earnings and AI-related investment themes.
A sharp risk-off session closed the week, as stalled US–Iran negotiations pushed energy prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns. Brent crude rose more than 3% to near USD 110/barrel, amid persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and continued uncertainty around regional energy flows.
Yesterday's session was a volatile one, as news from progress in the negotiations around the conflict in the Middle East came in both directions, moving energy prices and the rest of asset prices. Brent prices closed up by more than 2%, at USD 112/barrel, while TTF prices ended the session flat at EUR 50/MWh.
Yesterday's session had a risk-on tone, after US President Trump made comments referring to the deal talks with Iran as being in their final stages. Crude oil prices fell, with the barrel of Brent dropping by more than 5% to settle at USD 105/barrel, while TTF also went down by a similar magnitude (closing at EUR 49/MWh) and volatility fell.
Yesterday's session had a rather quiet tone on mixed signals, as sources in Iran announced that differences between the counterparts in the Middle East conflict were beginning to shrink, although there were no advances on Iran's nuclear programme. Brent prices fell by more than 2%, while natural gas closed flat.
La COVID-19 está teniendo un fuerte impacto en la actividad económica y el sector inmobiliario, aunque no sea uno de los más perjudicados, también se está viendo afectado. En CaixaBank Research esperamos que el PIB de España retroceda entre un 13% y un 15% en 2020, y que no recupere los niveles precrisis hasta finales de 2023. A pesar de la gravedad de la situación y la elevada incertidumbre sobre la futura evolución de la pandemia, es importante resaltar que el sector cuenta con unos fundamentos mucho más sólidos que en la anterior crisis de 2008.
La COVID-19 está teniendo un fuerte impacto sobre la actividad económica de España y, en particular, sobre el sector turístico. En CaixaBank Research esperamos que el PIB retroceda entre un 13% y un 15% en 2020, y que no recupere los niveles precrisis hasta el año 2023. En lo que respecta al sector turístico, las perspectivas son incluso más adversas para el año 2020, al ser uno de los sectores más afectados por la pandemia.
The Fed held its benchmark short-term interest rate and said it will continue to buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. Policymakers now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024.
Investors are now debating when the Fed is likely to start trimming its monthly bond purchases, while the Bank of Japan announced it will unveil a new tool to support efforts to address climate change.
El comercio minorista es uno de los principales sectores de servicios de la economía española. Es un sector empresarialmente atomizado, especialmente intensivo en empleo y con una presencia muy extendida por todo el territorio nacional. En su conjunto, se ha mostrado mucho más resiliente que otros servicios a los efectos de la pandemia, en parte gracias a la extraordinaria capacidad de adaptación a los canales de venta on-line, acelerando así una tendencia que se venía afianzando desde hace años y que cuantificamos en este informe a partir de datos internos de CaixaBank. Para 2021, las perspectivas del comercio minorista son de recuperación gracias a los avances en la campaña de vacunación, que permitirán una retirada, progresiva pero rápida, de las restricciones al comercio y la movilidad, incluida la internacional, durante el 2T 2021.
Last Friday, investors' sentiment worsened amid rising COVID-19 cases, now more contagious with the Delta variant.
Monthly analysis of Spain’s economic and financial outlook and its long-term prospects.