Con un telón de fondo marcado por tensiones geopolíticas, negociaciones arancelarias inciertas y desequilibrios fiscales en economías clave, este número de verano del Informe Mensual analiza cómo la fragmentación comercial y la búsqueda de autonomía estratégica están redefiniendo el tablero económico internacional. A la vez, examina otros temas relevantes para la economía española, desde la relación entre el patrón de crecimiento del empleo y la productividad, hasta el impacto de eventos inesperados como el apagón de abril.
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Markets started the week in a mixed mood as investors eye trade negotiations and the central bank meetings in Sintra. Market confidence in Fed rate cuts drove U.S. sovereign yields down, while euro area sovereign yields were little changed. The euro strengthened against the dollar and edged towards $1.18 (a 5-year high).
Investors traded cautiously in yesterday's session and, in the euro area, the major stock indices declined and sovereign yields edged lower. In a panel of central banks in Sintra, Fed's Powell acknowledged that the Fed would have already cut rates this year absent Trump's tariffs, while the ECB's Lagarde stated that inflation is at target in the euro area.
Markets were mixed in a session dominated by uncertainty about U.S. tariffs. U.S. stocks dropped and the USD strengthened as the Trump administration threatened higher tariffs on several countries. There were no news related to U.S.-EU trade relations and European stocks advanced. Sovereign yields rose across the U.S. and the euro area.
Markets had a mixed session yesterday. Sovereign yields continued to decline across the U.S. and euro area, while the EUR crawled back above $1.17 and touched a 10-day high. European stock markets were mixed while the U.S.' S&P 500 wavered. This morning Japan's Nikkei rallied on the back of a U.S.-Japan trade deal that would set tariffs on Japan at 15% (incl. cars).
The risk-on mood triggered by trade negotiations continued to support markets but lost some steam in yesterday's session. Sovereign yields rose on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, while euro area and U.S. stocks posted moderate gains with a mixed sectorial performance (European banks rallied on favorable earnings and higher rates).
Initial optimism over the EU-U.S. trade deal, which had boosted European stocks early in the trading session, soon faded and the region's main indices closed lower with losses led by German stocks (-1%). U.S. stocks had a choppy session and ended mostly flat, while large-cap tech stocks edged higher. The euro slipped to just below $1.16, its lowest in over a month
Investors seemingly recovered some appetite for risk in yesterday's session. Stock markets rose moderately across advanced economies and sovereign yields increased both in the U.S. and Europe. The euro reversed Monday's gains and fluctuated close to $1.17 while commodity prices were mixed.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session. Global stock markets advanced and U.S. sovereign yields nudged down as the U.S. CPI report did not depress investor expectations about Fed cuts. In Europe, the euro strengthened on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, German sovereign yields nudged up but peripheral spreads ticked down.
Investors ended the week with a mixed session. Euro area sovereign yields continued to rise on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's tone, while US yields had only modest gains following sessions with sharp declines ahead of the Fed's meeting. The euro-dollar cross remained at 1.17 and stocks were mostly flat on both sides of the Atlantic.
Positive session for stock markets in the U.S. and the euro area, with declines in sovereign bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday. The euro appreciated slightly against the dollar, rising to 1.176.
Investors traded cautiously during yesterday's session ahead of the FOMC meeting today, in which the Fed is expected to lower interest rates by 25bp (see our take here). US Treasury yields edged down, euro area sovereign yields were flat, and stocks fell on both sides of the Atlantic. The euro rose against the dollar to its highest in 4 years, close to 1.187.
Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious tone. US Treasury yields continued to tick slightly higher, following the tendency of the last sessions. Global equities were mixed, rising in the US and declining across the euro area. A study published by the ECB found eurozone consumers have been shifting away from US goods and reducing overall discretionary spending.
Markets seemed to shrug off the U.S. government shutdown in yesterday's session. Global stocks rose and U.S. sovereign yields declined amid weak U.S. labor market data. Euro area sovereign yields were little changed, and the euro held steady at $1.17. Gold also steadied after having rallied in the last few days.
Without relevant macro data to trade on, no advances in negotiations to reopen the US government, nor any new developments in France, markets traded cautiously during yesterday's session. Euro area sovereign yields ended mostly flat while US Treasury yields edged lower, and stocks retreated globally. The euro weakened to 1.16 against the dollar.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session as uncertainty about the situation in France and the US government shutdown continued to dampen investors' sentiment. Sovereign yields edged higher on both sides of the Atlantic and the euro weakened to $1.15 against the dollar. Euro area stocks were mixed and US stocks fell as the tech-fueled rally took a pause.
Wednesday saw another mixed session in financial markets. Eurozone sovereign bond yields fell, with curves flattening slightly, as August industrial production data in the eurozone surprised to the upside (though still contracted). The French spread also narrowed and sat below the Italian one, as Lecornu’s new government cemented its chances of survival.
Thursday saw another mixed session in financial markets. US Treasury yields declined after several Fed officials commented on further rate cuts, although they disagreed on the magnitude and pace of easing. Eurozone sovereign bond yields also fell, particularly Italian ones, following the Government’s submission of its Draft Budgetary Plan to the European Commission.
La economía española se muestra sorprendentemente resiliente en el nuevo escenario de previsiones de CaixaBank Research, con un crecimiento del PIB cercano al 3% gracias al impulso de la demanda interna. Sin embargo, persisten los riesgos internacionales que podrían ensombrecer estas perspectivas: desde el auge del proteccionismo comercial y la desaceleración europea hasta posibles repuntes de los precios energéticos. Nuestros economistas Adrià Morron y Oriol Carreras nos explican con claridad las claves de este escenario, en un nuevo episodio de Economía Exprés.
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As expected, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged (depo at 2%) and reinforced its meeting-by-meeting data-dependent strategy. Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, and equities had a mixed session across the region. On the macro front, euro area GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3 (1.3% yoy), up from 0.1% qoq in Q2.