Con un telón de fondo marcado por tensiones geopolíticas, negociaciones arancelarias inciertas y desequilibrios fiscales en economías clave, este número de verano del Informe Mensual analiza cómo la fragmentación comercial y la búsqueda de autonomía estratégica están redefiniendo el tablero económico internacional. A la vez, examina otros temas relevantes para la economía española, desde la relación entre el patrón de crecimiento del empleo y la productividad, hasta el impacto de eventos inesperados como el apagón de abril.
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En el número de mayo del Informe Mensual incluimos un dossier especial para analizar el presente y los futuros de la nueva economía de la IA, abordando sus implicaciones macroeconómicas, empresariales, financieras y geopolíticas. Arrancamos con una panorámica del despliegue global de la IA desde el lado de la oferta, analizando la cadena de valor, el papel de las infraestructuras, los cuellos de botella energéticos y de semiconductores, y la posición de las distintas potencias en esta carrera tecnológica. A continuación, examinamos cómo la IA puede impulsar el crecimiento de la productividad y qué sabemos —y qué no— sobre sus efectos en el empleo, subrayando que el salto de las mejoras microeconómicas a los impactos macro será gradual y desigual entre países y sectores. En España, la adopción de la IA en las empresas avanza con rapidez pero sigue siendo limitada y heterogénea, lo que plantea retos relevantes para la productividad y la cohesión del tejido productivo. También abordamos las estrategias de gobernanza de la IA en EE. UU., China y la UE, y los equilibrios entre innovación, regulación y adopción que marcarán la geopolítica de la IA en los próximos años. Sin olvidarnos de la IA en los mercados financieros, las valoraciones de las grandes tecnológicas y los riesgos asociados a la elevada concentración y a las crecientes necesidades de inversión en infraestructura.
Investors traded in a cautious mood in the first session of the week. Volatility rose, U.S. equities declined moderately and European and EM stocks nudged up.
Yesterday markets steadied after a few mixed sessions. Volatility nudged down and European stocks rebounded, while U.S. equities posted moderate gains.
Investors ended the week with mixed results, as fears intensified that inflationary pressures are building up across the globe. The headline HICP in the Eurozone rose to levels not seen since 2008 (3.4% y/y in September) while in the U.S. the PCE deflator remained elevated (4.3% y/y august).
In the first session of the week, investors sentiment worsened and stock indices declined across the board, led by the tech sector. The euro area Sentix Confidence Index fell by 2.7 points to 16.9 in October, the third consecutive decline.
Yesterday investors traded with optimism amid better than expected economic sentiment data in advanced economies. In particular, the U.S. non-manufacturing ISM index for September increased by 0.2 points to 61.9 while the final Composite PMI in the euro area remained at elevated levels (56.2) despite falling by 2.8 points.
In yesterday's session, investors’ sentiment worsened in the euro area, amid inflationary concerns, while in the U.S. investors focused their attention on a potential breakthrough in negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to extend the debt ceiling and on the better than expected ADP employment report.
In yesterday's session, financial markets traded with an optimistic tone amid positive corporate earnings releases in the U.S. and across Europe. Investors remain concerned, though, about inflationary pressures as the Fed's Beige Book reported significant increases in prices and wages in a decelerating economy.
Financial markets ended the week with mixed results, balancing the positive tone from the corporate results for the Q3 earning season with disappointing survey economic data in Europe.
In an eventful session, investors traded with a risk-on mood and stock indices rose in the U.S. and in most euro area trading floors. In fixed-income markets, sovereign yields edged up in both sides of the Atlantic, specially so in Italy, where Mario Draghi presented the 2022 fiscal budget with some tax cuts and an increase in the retirement age.
La situación del sector turístico ha mejorado muy significativamente durante los meses de verano y ha batido las previsiones de buena parte de las empresas del sector. La vacunación de gran parte de la población, la puesta en marcha del Certificado Digital COVID de la UE, la gran demanda turística embalsada y la moderación de las restricciones en la hostelería han sido el compendio de factores que han apoyado una recuperación muy importante y necesaria para el sector.
Comments by central bankers centered the stage at the start of the week in a session with no relevant economic data releases. In the euro area Christine Lagarde reiterated that a rate hike in 2022 is "very unlikely" even if the current inflation spike might be higher and longer than initially expected.
Markets ended the week with a risk-off sentiment, driven by hawkish commentary by some Fed officials about the potential need to readjust policy to deal with the rebound in inflation. In contrast, ECB president Christine Lagarde reiterated prices will stabilize in the euro area in line with the central bank's target.
Financial markets started the week with mixed results. Investors balanced out the risk from the COVID outbreak in Europe with the re-appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed president and the nomination of Lael Brainard as the next VP, signaling policy continuity at the helm of the central bank.
Investors continued trading with a risk-off mood, with sentiment gloomed by the deterioration of the COVID situation across Europe and mixed signals from economic sentiment data. Investors were also taking position ahead of the bank holiday in the US later this week.
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously despite easing concerns on the omicron variant. On the data front, the euro area economic sentiment indicator eased in November from 118.6 points to 117.5 and inflation numbers continued to increase in the region. Germany's HICP inflation rose 1.4pp to 6.0% while in Spain it rose 0.2pp to 5.6%.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-off mood amid rising concerns over the omicron variant, rising inflation in the euro area (headline 4.9% and core 2.6%) and hawkish comments by Fed members.
In yesterday's session investors traded cautiously amid concerns on the new coronavirus variant and mixed economic sentiment data releases. November manufacturing PMIs ticked up in the euro area (58.4) but decreased in Spain (57.1 vs 57.4 in October), China (49.9 vs 50.6) and the U.S. (58.3 vs 58.4).
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they weighed concerns about the omicron variant with data confirming the tightness of the U.S. labor market (layoffs hit a 28-year low in November) and mounting inflation pressures (euro area producer prices rose by 21.9% y/y in October).