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Investors continued to trade with a cautious tone on Thursday, taking on board a new bath of data pointing to moderating inflationary pressures in Europe and a tight labour market in the US.

The global economic outlook centered the stage in yesterday’s session as investors focused on July’s flash PMIs. In the euro area, the soft growth momentum was visible in the fall of the services (51.1) and manufacturing (42.7) indices. In the US, the manufacturing PMI rose and got closer to the 50-point threshold, but the services PMI lost steam.

Greetings back to work in a week beginning with the downbeat echoes of Friday, when investors traded in a risk-averse mood. Sovereign bond yields ended the week sliding across the board, especially in Europe, and so did stocks, with the biggest falls in China. The USD was broadly flat, while commodities rose slightly.

As investors await the Jackson Hole conference for some guidance on monetary policy, European sovereign bond yields fell across the board in Tuesday's session. Meanwhile US short-term references posted gains, boosted by Fed's Barkin hawkish remarks on how the current strong economy would allow for higher rates should inflation pick up.

Eurozone sovereign bond yields remained broadly flat In Thursday's session as investors awaited the Jackson Hole meeting, which started last night with mixed comments from ECB officials. Centeno advised caution on further hikes, as downside risks for the economy are materializing, while Nagel said it's 'much too early' for a pause.

Investors started the week trading cautiously in a relatively quiet session, as they awaited for key economic data due to be released this week (e.g.: August euro area inflation and US labor market report).

In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they awaited for today's key US employment report for the month of August. Also, in the euro area a mixed inflation HICP was released, with all components except energy exhibiting a disinflationary path in August.

Investors ended the week digesting a raft of month-end economic data on both sides of the Atlantic. In the Eurozone, Thursday's release of August inflation figures, which showed headline inflation stable at 5.3%, sent sovereign bond yields higher and major stock indices lower on Friday, despite an encouraging slowdown in core inflation.

Sovereign bond yields rose across Europe yesterday after an ECB survey showed consumer expectations for inflation edged up, which could pressure the ECB for further rate hikes. Inflation concerns were also stoked by Brent crude oil reaching a new year high after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced an extension of supply curbs through year's end.

Risk-off appetite prevailed among investors yesterday. In the eurozone, a raft of negative data releases weighed on stocks, as both retail trade across the region and German factory orders surprised on the downside.

Yesterday’s session saw subdued trading volumes and a risk-off sentiment. In the Eurozone, the downward revision of Q2 GDP growth figures prompted sovereign bond yields to fall. Renewed signs of industrial weakness in Germany stoked concerns of economic malaise and pushed down stocks as well.

Investors ended the week on a cautious note: trading volumes were light and most asset prices were little changed. Sovereign bond yields were largely unchanged in the eurozone, while rising slightly in the US despite most Fed officials who spoke in recent weeks tended to lean towards a pause in the hiking cycle at the September meeting.

In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously as they awaited  key economic data later this week (US CPI inflation) and the ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday. The main economic event yesterday was the downward revision of the European Commission’s summer GDP forecasts.

Financial markets ended the week digesting Thursday’s ECB rate decision. If investors initially interpreted Lagarde’s speech as implying a slightly dovish bias going forward, several ECB officials pushed back against such interpretations on Friday, pushing European sovereign bond yields up, peripheral spreads to widen, and a steepening of the curve.

Investors began the week focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and weighing the impact of the steady rise in crude oil prices, with the Brent benchmark rising a further 0.7% during the session. In this context, European sovereign bond yields rose across the board, as did US short-term benchmarks.

During yesterday’s session investors largely digested the Fed’s hawkish pause on Wednesday, positioning further into the narrative of a soft landing for the US economy and higher interest rates for longer. Thus European and US government bond yields rose in the medium and long term, and either fell or remained unchanged in the short term.

Financial markets ended the week giving mixed signals from both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, flash PMI data for September showed a slight improvement in business activity, albeit still signalling economic contraction amid a weak German manufacturing sector, pushing up government bond yields and dragging most equity indices lower.

Stock markets advanced in the US, Europe and Asia while sovereign yields remained stable. In Spain, markets underperformed their peers as stocks declined and sovereign spreads rose.

Yesterday's session was filled with economic data releases. In the US, Q2 2023 GDP revision left growth unchanged from previous estimates at 2.1% SAAR, and personal consumption had its slowest increase in a year. In Europe, September inflation in Germany eased to 4.5% y/y from 6.1% in August but ticked up in Spain to 3.5% from 2.6%.

Investors traded with a slightly higher risk appetite on Friday as several key inflation data points on both sides of the Atlantic fell and despite the risk of a US government shutdown, which was eventually averted over the weekend, rose. Eurozone inflation fell to a 2-year low, with core CPI showing positive momentum and US core PCE also moderating.