Relatively quiet session in financial markets, with no major macroeconomic data released and U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day. Sentiment in the euro area was supported by President Trump’s decision to extend the deadline for imposing 50% tariffs on EU imports to July 9, easing immediate trade tensions.
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Financial markets were mixed during yesterday's session, ahead of May US CPI data to be released tomorrow. US and euro area sovereign bond yields closed the session slightly lower. Separately, news that Japan would be considering buying back bonds with very long maturity to prevent abrupt rises in bond yields, weighed on Japanese yields.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session as investors digested Trump's delay of the tariff deadline to August 1. The main U.S. stock indices were little changed, while European stocks rose across the board. The USD was stable against a basket of currencies and the EUR continued to fluctuate around $1.17.
Investors traded in a mixed mood in a session in which Donald Trump threatened a 35% tariff on Canada (for goods outside USMCA) and floated the idea of a 15%-20% global baseline tariff rate (currently, 10%). Stocks advanced modestly in the U.S. but declined in Europe. Sovereign yields rose, and the EUR weakened and traded below $1.17 (touching 10-day lows).
Investors ended the week with a risk-off session as trade tensions continued to escalate. Over the weekend, President Trump threatened 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports beginning August 1st. Stocks fell across the board, sovereign yields rose and the dollar strengthened, leaving the euro trading just below $1.17.
Investors traded cautiously amid trade tension escalations and heightened uncertainty, with all eyes on today's U.S. CPI report for June. The market's reaction to tariff threats was rather muted, with sovereign yields edging higher on both sides of the Atlantic, and equity markets posting slight gains in the U.S. and slight losses in the euro area.
Markets had a choppy session yesterday. News reports that President Trump was considering firing the Fed Chairman sent jitters across markets, pushing Treasury yields higher and the dollar lower. Trump later denied the rumors and Treasuries recovered, while the dollar did not fully erase losses and by the end of the session the euro was close to $1.16.
Markets ended the week in a cautious mood. Stocks were mixed, with European indices suffering moderate losses while the S&P 500 ended largely unchanged after having dipped earlier in the session. The earnings season kicked off with mostly solid results. Bitcoin closed "Crypto week" little changed (Trump signed the GENIUS Act on Friday).
Investors traded with caution in the first session of the week. Looming trade negotiation deadlines and the EU's possible retaliatory measures triggered safe-haven flows and a rally in global bonds, with sharp declines in 10-year euro area sovereign yields and narrower peripheral spreads. Gold rose and the EUR strengthened towards $1.17.
Markets ended the week with a mixed session. Optimism over trade deals continued to support U.S. equity markets, sending the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to new record highs, while euro area stocks ended mostly lower as investors traded cautiously awaiting news of a trade deal. Sovereign yields were little changed after the ECB meeting and Trump's visit to the Fed.
Euro area investor sentiment recovered following the EU-US trade deal, sending stocks higher across the region. In the US, investors traded in a risk-off mood on news that, after two days of negotiations in Stockholm, Chinese and US officials failed to deliver a trade deal and agreed only to seek an extension of the 90-day tariff truce. Stocks fell, and Treasuries rallied.
Risk-off sentiment drove markets after a weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market report (nonfarm payrolls +22k in August, and June-July revised down to a cumulative +66k [prior: +87k]). Advanced-economy stock markets declined and sovereign yields dropped amid stronger market expectations over Fed cuts. The euro strengthened above $1.17 and gold rose.
U.S. equity markets reached new highs, led by technology, as sovereign yields declined after producer prices fell more than expected in August (-0.1% m/m), driven by lower services prices. The data reinforced market expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. In Europe, major indices closed mixed, with the notable gains in the IBEX-35 and the defense sector.
Investors traded cautiously in the first session of the week as they pondered over the risk of a U.S. government shutdown (federal funding expires on September 30 unless Congressional leaders agree on a spending bill). The VIX rose, stocks were mixed, sovereign yields declined across the U.S. and the euro area, the USD weakened and gold rose.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session as the U.S. government shutdown clouded data releases. Technology equities drove the U.S.' Nasdaq to record highs, while the S&P 500 was barely changed and euro area stocks were mixed. Sovereign yields nudged down and the USD inched higher. Brent oil prices continued to fall ahead of the weekend's OPEC+ meeting.
Investors ended the week with a mixed session as the US government shutdown, which prevented the release of the employment report, clouded sentiment. Sovereign yields edged lower in the euro area and stocks mostly advanced, while US Treasury yields ended higher, and equities were mostly flat weighed down by the underperformance of tech stocks.
Following the resignation of French premier Lecornou, French assets sold off with stocks paring losses and the yield on the 10-year sovereign benchmark rising to push the country's risk premium to 85bp, above Italy's. Contagion to the rest of the euro area was limited, with peripheral risk premia stable and stocks paring mild losses. The EURUSD held at 1.17.
Sentiment recovered in the euro area after a few sessions of cautious trading following the resignation of France’s Prime Minister. Sovereign yields fell and peripheral risk premia narrowed slightly, although France’s remains elevated and above Italy’s. The region’s main equity indices advanced.
On Friday, equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic opened with losses as investors weighed concerns about credit quality in the US after two US regional lenders disclosed loan issues. However, during the day those concerns eased, allowing the US indices to close with gains and the Europeans to partially recover.
Without any significant drivers, markets traded without a clear direction during yesterday’s session, pausing the previous’ days strong risk-on sentiment. Treasury yields edged lower in the US ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week (expected to lower interest rates by 25bp). European government yields fell across the region, keeping peripheral risk premia constant.