Investors started the week trading with no clear direction, taking on board mixed signals from the ECB and looking ahead for a new batch of corporate results and the Q1 GDP data for the world’s largest economies later this week.
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Investors started the week with no clear direction, focused on the US negotiations over the debt ceiling, which were due to start after markets closed. The opposition leader, McCarthy, said his Monday meeting with President Biden set the talks “on the right path” while Biden called the meeting “productive”, but no agreement was reached yet.
The week ended with markets trading without a clear direction as investors continued to monitor central bank officials' speeches to adjust their expectations of the timing of the first interest rate cuts, and as they awaited key economic data to be released this week.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, and hinted that if inflation readings continue in the right direction, a September rate cut "could be on the table." Markets reaffirmed their expectation of three 25bp interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2024. Treasury yields fell by +10bp, and US equities rallied.
Investors ended August digesting inflation data which confirmed prices are moving in the right direction for the ECB and the Fed to cut interest rates in their September meetings. Specifically, euro are inflation cooled to 2.2% y/y last month, and the US PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) for July was unchanged at 2.5% y/y.
Financial markets struggled to find a clear direction amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices had a volatile session, with the Brent reference touching $76/barrel in intraday trading, to close at around $74/barrel. Equity markets closed with slight losses in the euro area and flat in the US, while the volatility index remained elevated.
Investors traded without a clear direction during Friday’s session. Inflation expectations in the euro area fell to 2.4% and 2.1% for the 1-year and 3-year outlooks, respectively, and sentiment improved in both Germany and the US.
With no relevant macro data releases, investors struggled to find a direction for their trades on Thursday. Eurozone government bond yields fell, with peripheral spreads widening, as the consumer confidence index came in below expectations and several ECB officials warned of a significant hit to growth from Trump's tariffs.
Financial markets traded without a clear direction ahead of the US CPI report expected today. In the US, assets had a choppy trading session, as early optimism driven by unexpectedly low US wholesale inflation in December (PPI +0.2% mom vs. +0.4% expected) was muted later on. In this context, US sovereign bonds and equities closed the session flat.
In yesterday's session, German bonds extended their decline, with the 10-year bund yield reaching 2.83%, and the euro appreciated against the dollar as the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%. President Christine Lagarde did not pre-commit to setting rates in any direction in the upcoming meetings, and warned of the uncertainty surrounding the effects of the trade war and increased defense spending.
Without any significant drivers, markets traded without a clear direction during yesterday’s session, pausing the previous’ days strong risk-on sentiment. Treasury yields edged lower in the US ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week (expected to lower interest rates by 25bp). European government yields fell across the region, keeping peripheral risk premia constant.
For the second consecutive day, markets traded without a clear direction. Government yields ended flat on both sides of the Atlantic while stocks mostly fell, with some exceptions in the euro area, amid reports that the Trump administration is considering to curb exports to China made with US software.
Stock markets posted gains across Europe and the US, while sovereign yields moved in opposite directions as they recorded mild declines in the eurozone and moderate increases in the US.
Financial markets exhibited a mixed mood as European stocks nudged down and U.S. indices struggled for direction but closed with small gains.
Financial markets performed in opposite directions in both sides of the Atlantic.
As markets continue to struggle for direction, yesterday volatility declined and European and U.S. stock markets rose on the back of some positive earnings reports and as investors looked past weak economic releases.
Markets searched for direction as investors weighed an increase in coronavirus infections and policy announcements.
Markets were mixed in the last session of the week as investors looked for direction.
Investors searched for direction in yesterday's session. Asian stocks advanced, European indices were mixed, and U.S. equities jumped as markets regained optimism that a partial deal on more fiscal stimulus could still happen.
European equities dropped as investors looked for the next catalysts to give the market direction. In Spain, shares of utility companies dropped over a draft bill the government is preparing that could drive down electricity prices.