Resultados de la búsqueda

The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that the decision to hold interest rates steady in June was not unanimous, and that most officials expected further rate hikes would be necessary, as the dot plot had shown. Also yesterday, US factory orders data for May came in below expectations, but still showed growth.

As expected, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.50%–3.75%. Following the announcement, Treasury yields fell, U.S. equities advanced, and the dollar weakened, leaving EUR/USD trading near 1.17. After three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed signaled it will likely pause to assess how the economy evolves.

Investors ended the week on a mixed note after US December jobs data showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.4%, prompting markets to push back expectations for the next Fed rate cut from March to June. As a result, 2-year Treasury yields edged higher and the US dollar strengthened. Equities nonetheless advanced to new highs.

The last stages of this cycle of monetary policy tightening centered the stage in yesterday’s session as the ECB hiked interest rates by 25bp (depo at 3.75% and refi at 4.25%). Nevertheless, Christine Lagarde said that this might not be the last hike and insisted that interest rates will remain high for a long period of time to break the back of inflation.

Markets ended Friday mixed as Fed guidance revived rate-cut bets, tempering weak sentiment in Asia and Europe. Comments from Fed Williams suggesting December interest rate cuts could align with inflation goals boosted markets' expectations for such event and drove US Treasury yields slightly down.

Yesterday's data releases showed a stronger-than-expected labour market in the US, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130k in January and unemployment rate easing 0.1pp to 4.3%. The data reinforced market expectations that the Fed will deliver two rate cuts this year, likely starting in the summer, rather than signaling an earlier or more aggressive easing cycle.

On Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 0.75% and signaled a hawkish stance. Speculation around potential currency intervention intensified after New York Fed officials reportedly sought information on the yen’s exchange rate, and Prime Minister Takaichi warned of action against “abnormal” market moves.

The Fed delivered a hawkish pause yesterday, leaving interest rates unchanged but acknowledging a strong US economy. The dot-plot projects a tighter policy through 2024 and 2025, consistent with rates higher for longer. US stock indices fell and US Treasury yields rose on the news, with the yield curve flattening, while the USD appreciated.

Investors digested the Fed's third rate hike of the year (see our detailed analysis of the meeting here) with moderate stock market gains, relatively unchanged sovereign yields, and a mixed behavior in FX markets, where the euro eased to $1.16 while some EM currencies appreciated (such as the Turkish lira the Brazilian real) and others weakened (such as Argentina's peso).
 

Yesterday investors traded cautiously as the threat of a possible US government shutdown by the end of the week and “high for longer” interest rates continue to lead the narrative. Investors were also at odds with Minneappolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s dovish tone regarding interest rates path ahead.

Risk appetite deteriorated on Thursday. Sovereign yields fell in the US after a private report (the Challenger index) showed the US economy shed more jobs than expected in October, reportedly due to AI-driven layoffs. Legal uncertainty around Trump tariffs added pressure, as Supreme Court justices questioned their validity during an ongoing hearing. The move came despite Fed officials speaking on the day pushed back against rate cuts, citing inflation risks and the lack of official data.

In yesterday’s session, investors once more weighed the growing tensions in the Middle East and the future path of interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would proceed carefully with rates, highlighting that the rise in yields in bond markets is helping to tighten financial conditions.

Yesterday, investors in the US traded with optimism as the Federal Reserve kept its official interest rates unchanged and reiterated its intention to "act as appropriate to support the economy".

In yesterday's session, the FOMC decided to leave interest rates unchanged at the 5.25%-5.50% target range. Despite describing the economic outlook with similar words than in September and not ruling out an additional rate hike, markets lowered the probabilities of a further tightening in the monetary policy stance. 

In yesterday's session financial markets continued to digest the last US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, where interest rates were held unchanged at the 5.25%-5.50% target range and President Jerome Powell hinted that we might already be at the peak of the hiking cycle, although new rate hikes were not definitely ruled out.

In Friday’s session, markets traded again with strong risk appetite as investors continued to price in the end of the central banks’ tightening cycle. US employment data showed signs of a cooling labor market, further fueling investors’ expectations of no further rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in a rate cut in June by the Fed and in April by the ECB.

In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously amid mixed comments from central bank officials regarding interest rates’ paths ahead. In the euro area, ECB Chief economist Phillip Lane said that not enough progress has been accomplished in bringing inflation back to 2% and some other members did not rule out an additional rate hike.