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Yesterday's data releases showed a stronger-than-expected labour market in the US, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130k in January and unemployment rate easing 0.1pp to 4.3%. The data reinforced market expectations that the Fed will deliver two rate cuts this year, likely starting in the summer, rather than signaling an earlier or more aggressive easing cycle.

Yesterday’s session saw investors in a wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s key US inflation report, which is expected to shed some light on the Fed’s next interest rate decisions. Sovereign bond yields rose slightly across the board as Fed’s Williams cooled expectations of imminent rate cuts, saying the Fed still has room to cover to reach inflation’s 2% target.

Investors’ risk appetite increased yesterday after US CPI data for May showed encouraging results in the disinflation process. Government bond yields fell sharply on the news on both sides of the Atlantic, although the gains were somewhat reversed later in the day as the Fed held rates steady and reduced its forecast for rate cuts in 2024 from 3 to 1.

Investors ended the week focused on the US employment report for June, which signaled the labor market is cooling as job creation slowed and the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% to 4.1%. This boosted expectations for two rate cuts this year, which sent Treasury yields lower and stocks higher, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new record highs.

A mixed session in financial markets on Thursday as the ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected. Lagarde said that eurozone growth was likely to have slowed in Q2 and expected wage growth to moderate in the coming quarters, but insisted that the September move remained "wide open".

The ECB governing council left interest rates unchanged and Lagarde remarked how core inflation is on a downward path and wage growth has stabilized. These remarks pushed investors to assign a 90% probability of an interest rate cut in the ECB’s next meeting in April, and pushed down sovereign bond yields.

In yesterday's session, euro area sovereign bond yields advanced, with a slight widening of peripheral spreads, while equities retreated amid weak sentiment. Consumer confidence indices in both Germany and France fell from their May readings. Several remarks from ECB officials including Lane and Schnabel reiterated the ECB's data-dependent strategy.

The FOMC kept US interest rates on hold, saying it needed more confidence that inflation was moving toward 2% on a sustainable basis before cutting rates. Powell later stated that the FOMC was unlikely to have such confidence by March.

As expected, the ECB lowered interest rates by 25 bp, taking the depo and refi rates to 3.75% and 4.25%, respectively. As for its next steps, the ECB once again remarked future decisions will be “data-dependent”, noting that the inflation path will not be exempt from surprises.

Another mixed session for financial markets as investors tried to figure out future rate moves from the main central banks. In the eurozone, the ECB delivered yesterday a 25 bp cut to its depo rate, bringing it to 3.5%. Regarding the October meeting, Lagarde just noted that it will take place too soon to provide the ECB with new data to assess price dynamics.

Investors started off the week on a mixed tone. In the money market, interbank rates rose as investors reassessed their expectations of further aggressive interest rate cuts. Sovereign bond yields also rose on both sides of the Atlantic, with the US treasuries' curve flattening as short-term benchmarks rose the most.

US Q2 GDP surprised to the upside. The economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.8%, up from 1.4% in Q1, and the GDP deflator fell from 3.1% to 2.3%. The release supported the narrative that the US economy is achieving a soft landing, and left the probability of 100% that investors assign to a Fed rate cut in September unchanged.

Another employment report in the US reaffirming the tightness in the labor market moved financial markets' expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut. As of today, a 25bp cut in June has an implied probability of 51%, compared with the 74% of Thursday's close. In the euro area, a June rate cut remains almost fully priced-in. 

In the last session of the week, yields on sovereign bonds continued to increase, modestly, as investors’ expectations on official interest rates continued to be revised to the upside. In particular the probability of observing the US Federal Reserve cutting rates in June or earlier stands currently at 63% (96% earlier in the month).

In yesterday's session, investors traded with mixed optimism as they continued to digest inflation data for the US, which might have peaked in March. On monetary policy, the Bank of Canada hiked rates by 50bp to 1% and said it would allow bonds to roll off as they mature. Today's focus will be on the ECB meeting.

Investors continued to trade with a positive mood ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US (markets will remain closed today). Hopes that central banks could allow less tightening were reinforced by feeble sentiment data and the minutes of the last Fed meeting, where a “substantial majority” of officials backed reducing the pace of rate hikes.

Investors started the week on a subdued note as they await key central bank meetings and data releases this week. Sovereign bond yields were little changed ahead of today's US CPI report. Yesterday, the NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations index for November extended its decline to 3.4% showing the impact of interest rate hikes.

US November CPI report came mostly in line with expectations: prices grew 0.1% MoM (vs. 0.0% expected) and 3.1% YoY (as expected) down from 3.2% in October, reinforcing the view the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meeting today. The lack of surprises left markets rather muted, with treasury yields flat and stock indices slightly advancing.