Economic activity data and central bank decisions centered the stage in yesterday’s session. On the one hand, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and hinted that the next move could be a rate cut, as there have been “further encouraging signs that inflation is coming down”. The Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25bp to 1.50%.

Remarks by central bank officials took center stage in yesterday's session. From the ECB, Luis de Guindos reiterated that the ECB is on its path to cut interest rate as inflation data is on track to its 2% target. On the other hand, Fed Chairman Powell said there is no need to rush to lower rates given the strong economic backdrop in the US.

Today’s FOMC meeting remained the focus of investor attention in yesterday’s session, with markets currently pricing in the Fed to keep rates unchanged. On the data front, US new home construction fell to its lowest level since 2020 as higher mortgage rates in August appear to have cooled demand.

Investors ended the week by revising their expectations for future interest rates upwards as Friday’s US employment report for November beat expectations for job creation and a lower unemployment rate. This caused Treasury yields to rise across the board, as it should force the Fed to remain hawkish and potentially delay any interest rate cuts.

In the first session of the week investors traded cautiously as they wait for new messages coming from central bank officials on the interest rate path ahead. In particular, all eyes are on the ECB Governing Council meeting on Thursday, where the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged and reiterate the data dependency approach for 1H2024.

In the last session of the week, investors reassessed their expectation for the Fed’s interest rate path ahead as the US April employment report showed a cooling labor market. In particular, job creation slowed from 315k to 175k, way below consensus expectations, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% and wage growth decelerated to 0.2% m/m.

The Fed held its benchmark short-term interest rate and said it will continue to buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. Policymakers now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024.

The Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle with a 50 bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.75%-5.00%. The FOMC cited "greater confidence" that inflation is moving sustainably to its 2% target and judged that the risks to its dual mandate are "roughly in balance". The committee sees rates falling another 50bp by year end.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, and hinted that if inflation readings continue in the right direction, a September rate cut "could be on the table." Markets reaffirmed their expectation of three 25bp interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2024. Treasury yields fell by +10bp, and US equities rallied.

In yesterday's session, investors focused their attention on the Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates were raised by 75bp to the 3.75%-4.00% target range. Crucially, president Jerome Powell explained that the pace of the upcoming hikes could moderate but that the terminal rate might be higher than previously anticipated. 

A strong US jobs report for January, with the unemployment rate falling 0.1 p.p. to 4.0% (the lowest since May) and wage growth accelerating to 4.1% yoy from 3.9% in December, reaffirmed expectations of a cautious Fed this year. Expectations for the next interest rate cut were delayed to July/September, and the probability of a second rate cut fell below 50%.

Caution continued to set the tone in financial markets amid mixed corporate profits releases and hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve members. In particular, Raphael Bostic argued in favor of a rate hike in May’s meeting, and pausing there, while James Bullard leaned towards bringing interest rates towards the 5.50-5.75% target range.

As expected, the Federal Reserve increased policy interest rates by 25 bp to the range 4.50%-4.75% but surprised by giving a dovish tone, noting that disinflationary pressures have started while the economy is starting to slow. The Fed reiterated that “ongoing increases” on interest rates would still be needed.

En este artículo analizamos con un enfoque novedoso el potencial de inquilinos españoles que podrían permitirse la compra de una vivienda en propiedad. Para el conjunto de España, estimamos que alrededor del 49% de los inquilinos tienen un nivel de ingresos suficiente para comprar una vivienda. Sin embargo, solamente un 13% cuentan, además, con los ahorros necesarios. Si bien se observan notables diferencias entre provincias y municipios, en todas las regiones se hace patente que la insuficiente capacidad de ahorro es la principal restricción a la que se enfrentan los inquilinos para acceder a una vivienda en propiedad.

El crecimiento de turistas internacionales se ha contenido en 2019 debido al contexto económico mundial y a la recuperación de los competidores en el Mediterráneo, pero el sector turístico muestra una gran resiliencia apoyada en el consumo del turismo residente y en la apuesta por el turismo de calidad.

A cierre del mes de noviembre, la mejora de la situación del sector turístico era palpable. Se consolidaron las buenas cifras del verano gracias a que se consiguió estirar la temporada en los meses de octubre y parte de noviembre. Esta buena tendencia se ha enturbiado con la irrupción de la nueva ola de COVID-19 en España, ligada a la variante ómicron. Sin embargo, una vez se estabilice dicha ola, cabe pensar que el sector volverá a la senda de la recuperación que venía registrando.

Yesterday's market sentiment was driven by the ECB's rate cut announcement, the fifth cut since last June, leaving depo rate 25bps lower at 2.75%. Officials kept the door open to further policy easing, given euro area GDP data was stagnant and could be hit by a trade war from the new US Administration. By end of session, markets expected 3 more cuts in 2025.