Generalized risk-off session as trade tensions intensified. Following the new round of US tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese imports, China imposed a 10-15% tariff on US agricultural products, Canada announced 25% tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports, and Mexico stated it would announce tariffs over the weekend.
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Yesterday all eyes were on Trump's tariffs announcement, which took place after US markets had closed. Trump finally set tariffs close to the worst expectations, with a 34% tariff for China, 20% for the EU and 24% for Japan. Asian equities are down at today's session (Nikkei around -3%), while stock index futures for Europe and the US point to similar losses.
So-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs announced by the Trump's administration on Wednesday evening had a substantial negative impact on financial markets during yesterday’s session. From a minimum 10% tariff on all countries, up to an accumulated tariff over 50% on China, investors began to price in slower growth as global trade starts to adapt to the tariffs shock.
Financial markets continued on a risk-off mode during Friday's session, as investors tried to assess the potential consequences of China retaliating on US tariffs, enacting duties on all US imports and export controls on rare earths. In this context, US sovereign yields fell, as investors expected the Federal Reserve will cut its intervention rate twice by July.
US President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the so-called “reciprocal" tariffs for all targeted countries, but still maintained the 10% general tariff rate and raised the tariff rate for China to 125% after both countries’ authorities escalated the tension. US stocks rallied and the S&P had its largest intraday gain in over 17 years (+9.5%).
Global markets endured heightened volatility on Thursday following President Trump's surprise announcement of a 90-day suspension of tariffs for most countries, excluding China. The European Union responded by delaying the implementation of its reciprocal measures.
Financial markets had a mixed session on Friday, closing off a highly volatile week with large swings in asset valuations amid chaotic tariff announcements, increased trade tensions, and heightened uncertainty. The latest announcement came from China, which retaliated against the US by increasing the tariff on US imports to 125%.
Investors ended the week on a cautious, yet slightly positive note. All eyes were on the trade talks between China and the US that took place over the weekend. Trump floated in social media an alternative tariff level of 80% on Friday (compared to the current 145%). Both sides have touted progress in the talks, but have offered few details so far.
Yesterday's announcement of a temporary truce in the trade war between the US and China lifted investors' mood, particularly in US assets. Both countries agreed that for the next 90 days the US will reduce the tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports last month from 145% to 30%, and that Chinese tariffs on US imports will fall from 125% to 10%.
Financial markets ended the week on a slightly positive note. News from early in the week of US-China trade negotiations helped sustain sentiment in equity markets, despite survey data showing a sharp deterioration in US consumer sentiment and an uptick in inflation expectations.
Investors ended the week by trading cautiously amid ongoing trade uncertainty, after Trump accused China of breaching a trade deal and said he expected to speak to Xi. US Treasury yields fell slightly, with some Fed officials maintaining their wait-and-see approach despite data released on Friday showed US consumer spending and PCE inflation slowed down in April.
The week kicked off to a mixed start. US Treasury yields rose after Trump announced on the weekend the US will raise tariffs on steel and aluminium (25% to 50%) and accused China of breaching the trade truce agreement. Separately, the ISM and PMI surveys for May showed delivery times increasing, while prices paid by suppliers remained elevated.
Markets traded cautiously as investors awaited news regarding trade negotiations between the US and China. The World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast, pointing to uncertainty brought by trade war as the main cause. In today's session, financial markets will focus on US CPI data for May.
Financial markets were mixed during yesterday's session. US CPI for May came softer than expected, with core CPI increasing by 0.1% mom (vs. expected 0.3%) and 2.8% yoy (vs. 2.9% expected), and overall CPI climbed 2.4% yoy, as expected. Separately, Trump said that a US-China trade deal is "done", which could ease trade frictions between the two countries.
Los mercados internacionales continúan bajo la influencia de las señales de debilidad del crecimiento en China (el PMI manufacturero de agosto se sitúa en su nivel más bajo en 3 años) y, más recientemente, unos mensajes menos acomodaticios por parte de diversos dirigentes de la Fed en Jackson Hole.
Permanece la fragilidad en el sentimiento inversor tras la publicación de unos flojos indicadores de confianza empresarial en China y EE. UU.
Prosigue la dinámica de risk-off en los mercados internacionales de la mano del desplome de compañías como Volkswagen y Glencore, en el caso de esta última, a causa de la debilidad de las materias primas y las dudas en torno al crecimiento en China.
La abrupta caída de las importaciones en China (-17,7% interanual) frente al dato esperado por el consenso reavivó las dudas sobre el crecimiento del país asiático.
Las bolsas internacionales han cerrado con signo mixto una jornada en la que China aportó un buen dato de crecimiento trimestral, pero no tan bueno de producción industrial.
In yesterday's session, investors exhibited an upbeat tone as both China and the U.S. showed cautious optimism after the top-level trade talks.