Resultats de la cerca

Sovereign bond yields fell for a second consecutive day on both sides of the Atlantic as softer-than-expected job openings data in the US reinforced expectations the Fed will lower rates this year. In the euro area, markets await the ECB tomorrow, which is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 bp.

Investors turned cautious again on Tuesday as the Israel-Iran conflict continued. US Treasury yields fell ahead of the FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged as it seeks more clarity on the impact of tariffs. Yesterday's data releases showed a softening US economy in May: retail sales dropped by more than expected (although so-called "core" retail sales increased); import prices remained stable, surprising to the upside; and industrial production fell slightly.

Investors continued to err on the side of caution during the last session of the week, with sentiment impaired by data releases pointing to lingering inflationary pressures and the likely need for further monetary policy tightening.

Thursday’s session saw a mixed performance across assets as investors grappled with a mixed bag of economic data and the latest Fed decision. In the US, Treasury yields were lower after the rise in initial jobless claims and the decline in the Producer Price Index raised investors’ expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.

Yesterday’s session was characterised by heightened investor caution and market volatility amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The intensification of hostilities between Israel and Iran dominated the headlines, while trade sentiment was further unsettled by Trump’s warning of potential unilateral tariffs to be announced within the next fortnight.

Stocks declined across the board on Friday as downbeat activity figures in the U.S. (nonfarm payroll employment +20,000 in February after +311,000 in January) and China (export growth dropped from 9.1% yoy in January to -20.7% in February) added to the OECD and the ECB's downgraded macroeconomic projections earlier in the week.

In yesterday's session, investors traded with mixed optimism as they continued to digest inflation data for the US, which might have peaked in March. On monetary policy, the Bank of Canada hiked rates by 50bp to 1% and said it would allow bonds to roll off as they mature. Today's focus will be on the ECB meeting.

Investors started the week in a risk-off mood as polls showed a tight race in today's US presidential election, which could potentially delay the vote count for weeks. Government bond yields were mixed in the eurozone and fell in the US, especially the longer-dated references, as traders await this Thursday's Fed meeting.

Market sentiment was mixed on Wednesday. On the one hand, higher-than-expected US inflation data for January (headline: 0.5% mom, 3.0% yoy; core: 3.3% yoy) pushed back market expectations for the next Fed rate cut from early summer to the end of the year, and the probability of a second cut went down to virtually zero.

Yesterday, the prevailing mood in the financial markets was calm before the end of Federal Reserve's meeting. Investors expect the central bank to keep the pace of asset purchases unchanged until at least August or September.

In the last session of the week, stock indices rose in the US and core euro area following positive corporate results and the better-than-expected GDP growth figures in the US.

In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously as they await for the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision on Wednesday and for news on the trade talks.

Investors ended the week on a positive note, as risk appetite increased on the back of the ECB’s rate cut, another round of stimulus measures announced by the Chinese authorities, and strong Q3 US corporate earnings.

The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp for the third time since June, and as expected by financial markets, lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%. The decision was based on increased confidence that inflation is close to target and a shift to a more negative short-term outlook for the euro area economy.

In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment deteriorated amid the expectation of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the ECB and disappointing corporate results. Concerns about the Covid-19 situation in China added to the somber sentiment.

Markets traded cautiously yesterday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision today. US Treasury yields were almost flat, as markets expect Fed's policy rate to stay at its current level. On the other side of the Atlantic, euro area sovereign yields were flat, as the German Bundestag approved a fiscal package to boost defence spending, as expected.

Inflation eased below 2% in Germany and Italy in September (1.6% and 0.7% yoy, respectively), as it did in Spain and France. ECB President Lagarde remarked recent data has strengthened the central bank's confidence in the return of inflation to target, sending the probability implied by futures markets of a 25bp cut in the October meeting to 90%.

Financial markets struggled to find a clear direction amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices had a volatile session, with the Brent reference touching $76/barrel in intraday trading, to close at around $74/barrel. Equity markets closed with slight losses in the euro area and flat in the US, while the volatility index remained elevated.

In yesterday's session, investors’ sentiment worsened in the euro area, amid inflationary concerns, while in the U.S. investors focused their attention on a potential breakthrough in negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to extend the debt ceiling and on the better than expected ADP employment report.

Stock indices were mixed as financial markets digested the downward revision of global growth forecasts from the OECD and the downbeat economic releases in the US (2018's trade deficit, the largest since 2008, and ADP employment report slightly below consensus).