Friday's session was volatile, after Iran postponed further peace negotiations with the US until Israel stopped striking Lebanon. The ceasefire between the countries was reached later in the session, which triggered a positive reaction that was almost immediately reversed. US markets were closed due to Juneteenth holiday.
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Volatility declined and markets favored risk assets in a light economic calendar day. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies as investors focused on the prospects of a new fiscal package in the U.S. and the release of the accounts of the ECB's September meeting.
In yesterday's session, the pause in a vaccine trial after a patient fell ill weighed on sentiment. Stock indices declined across the globe (in the US, Q3 earnings season started disappointing investors) and yields on sovereign bonds edged slightly down. In FX markets, the US dollar strengthened against advanced and emerging economies' currencies.
A session with mixed results across markets on Tuesday, as investors returned from the Easter holiday and took position ahead of the March inflation report in the US today. The Fed also releases the account of its March meeting.
Investors continued to err on the side of caution on Wednesday, balancing out data showing US inflation cooled slightly more than expected in March with warnings set out in the minutes of the last Fed meeting of the risk of a mild recession in the US later this year.
During yesterday's session, investors continued to digest the implications of the US Supreme Court's ruling to strike down US emergency tariffs. While the global tariff stands at 10%, the Trump administration is reportedly working to increase it to 15%. Against this backdrop, government bond yields closed flat on both sides of the Atlantic, in a day of choppy trading.
Small gains in most of the stock markets with the exception of the Spanish stock market that registered loses due to the tensions regarding the Catalan question.
Yesterday, markets traded cautiously amid the uncertainty over negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as lingering concerns around the AI profitability after Nvidia’s results failed to impress the investors. Equity markets moved lower, with losses led by the technology sector.
Investors traded in a subdued mood on Tuesday, as they awaited today’s US CPI report and digested the latest dovish comments from several Fed officials on Monday: Bostic, who said that inflation could be brought back to target without further rate hikes; and Daly, who said the Fed was approaching «the last part» of its hiking cycle.
Investors started the week trading with a cautious mood, still digesting the mixed US employment report released on Friday and awaiting tomorrow's key CPI inflation data. Also, comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly pointed to further interest rate increases even if signaling the end of the hiking cycle is nearing.
In yesterday’s session, investor sentiment was soured by data showing the resilience of the US economy and its labour market. Private surveys showed that US companies added the most jobs in over a year in June, and the services sector expanded faster than expected, which investors fear will allow the Fed to continue raising rates.
Investors continued to trade with a positive mood ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US (markets will remain closed today). Hopes that central banks could allow less tightening were reinforced by feeble sentiment data and the minutes of the last Fed meeting, where a “substantial majority” of officials backed reducing the pace of rate hikes.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a positive tone as the Federal Reserve kept its monetary policy unchanged and vote counting continued in the US. The Democrat candidate, Joe Biden, has taken the lead and potentially winning one more state would be sufficient for him to become the US President.
Markets ended last week on a high note on Friday as it became apparent that the US elections were nearing a result. The S&P 500 gained 7.3% over the week and US sovereign yields rose sharply. The election result was finally called on Saturday, in favor of Joe Biden, but Donald Trump announced that he would contest the results.
Economic sentiment data and new advances in a vaccine treatment for COVID-19 were the main drivers of a mixed session in financial markets. On the one hand, the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc said that their vaccine prevented 70% of the participants from falling ill. This effectiveness rises to 90% with an alternative treatment.
During Friday's session, sentiment moderated following the recent risk-on momentum, as investors headed into the weekend focused on developments in the Middle East and the prospect of US–Iran talks. Brent crude traded around USD 95/barrel, while TTF gas declined by around 5% to €43/MWh.
European sovereign yields edged lower in yesterday's trading session following a speech by ECB chief Christine Lagarde in which she signalled further monetary easing. In her speech, Lagarde emphasised the importance of the duration, and not only the size, of monetary accomodation, and identified PEPP and TLTROs as the main crisis tools.
Precaution continued to set the tone during the first session of the week, with investor sentiment negatively affected by the ongoing deterioration of COVID infections across China and the likely imposition of more restrictions.
Investors continued trading in a risk-on mood yesterday as the vaccination process continues, and, symbolically, the number of people vaccinated across the world reaches the number of COVID-19 cases.
In the last session of the week, investors’ expectations on additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve were seen as more probable. That, together with debt ceiling concerns and an increase of inflation expectations seen in the University of Michigan survey, pushed US Treasury yields higher.