Financial markets continued to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates. Sovereign bond yields edged lower in the euro area and were stable in the U.S., while the dollar extended its recent weakening trend, leaving EUR/USD trading near 1.175. Futures markets continued to price in two rate cuts for next year, despite a seemingly divided FOMC.
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Financial markets ended the week on a positive tone, on the back of better-than-expected Q3 corporate results and economic data releases in the U.S. In particular, retail sales rose by 0.7% mom in September, well above the Bloomberg consensus (0.2% decline).
Investors started the week on a positive mood, favoring risky assets amid supportive economic releases. Volatility declined, stock markets rallied across advanced and emerging economies, most currencies strengthened against the USD and commodity prices rebounded on the back of positive market sentiment.
After the strong correction registered during the first weeks of February, global stock markets closed last week on a positive note with stronger increases in Europe than in the U.S., where they remained relatively stable on Friday.
At the start of a key week for the central banks, investors traded cautiously as they expect a hawkish shift in tone in monetary policy, in particular from the US Federal Reserve.
Stock markets suffered losses for the third time in the week, with stronger declines in the Euro Area than in the U.S.
Yesterday session was risk-on, with global stocks advancing, led by Japan, where the Nikkei-225 registered gains of nearly 4% after the Liberal Democratic Party obtained the supermajority in the Lower House elections, allowing prime minister Sanae Takaichi to continue pursuing expansionary fiscal policies.
In yesterday's session, weaker-than-expected US retail sales in December combined with expected lower consumption due to harsh winter conditions, reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts during the year, with the first one occurring in June. Today key employment data will be released which should add further clarity on the interest-rate path.
Financial markets ended the week with an optimistic tone, on the back of better-than-expected employment creation in the U.S. and advances in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.
Financial markets started the week in a cautious tone. Tensions in euro area sovereign bond markets remained in focus, even though the French spread narrowed, as peripherals were flat. Sovereign curves steepened on both sides of the Atlantic as short-term references fell, while long-term ones rose. The euro weakened against its main peers.
Investors traded cautiously in Tuesday's session. Equities posted losses across the U.S. and Europe, and sovereign yields were volatile even as energy prices declined. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surged to levels not seen since the early 2000s, despite finding a partial reprieve after NY Fed President John Williams signaled no urgency to deliver the next rate hike.
Yesterday's session was mixed across asset classes and regions. In the Eurozone, sovereign yields rose and peripheral spreads widened as countries grapple with the need for higher military spending. Separately, ECB's Schnabel argued the 2.75% rate is not undoubtedly restrictive, while ECB's Panetta argued that the consumer-led recovery is not materialising.
Investors started the week on a slightly positive note, with US markets closed for the President's Day holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields rose on the likelihood of increased public spending on defence. Peripheral spreads narrowed as German bonds came under some selling pressure ahead of Sunday's general election.
In the last session of the week, stock markets rose worldwide and sovereign yields ticked up in the U.S. and declined in the Euro Area.
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they positioned for today's conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting (where we expect Jerome Powell to announce the beginning of a reduction in the pace of net asset purchases) and tomorrow's Bank of England monetary policy meeting.
Treasury yields fell as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before Congress that rising inflation is likely to be transitory and that the central bank would continue to support the economy. The Bank of Japan left its 10-year bond yield target unchanged at about 0% after concluding its meeting and also kept the policy-balance rate at -0.1%.
US Treasury yields ended yesterday's session mostly flat after the large sell-off they suffered on Monday. The market-implied probability of a Fed rate cut next week continued to stand close to 100%. The Japanese 2Y yield topped 1% early this week, its highest value since 2008, on continued expectations of a rate hike in two weeks.
In yesterday's session, European government bond yields broadly fell after December inflation numbers for Germany and France came in lower than expected, lowering odds of future rate hikes from the ECB. Investors will be attentive to today's release of December CPI in the euro area, looking for more hints on the rate path in the short term.
Markets ended the week in a mixed mood (stocks declined, safe-haven currencies rose) as investors closed positions ahead of low trading in August. The publication of the Financial Markets Daily Report will stop for a few weeks, but we will be keeping an eye on markets and be back by the end of August. We wish our readers a great summer break.
Yesterday's session had a rather quiet tone on mixed signals, as sources in Iran announced that differences between the counterparts in the Middle East conflict were beginning to shrink, although there were no advances on Iran's nuclear programme. Brent prices fell by more than 2%, while natural gas closed flat.