Yesterday's session opened with the negative tone seen in the previous days driven by the increase in covid-19 cases around the globe.
Resultats de la cerca
Investors started the week on a slightly positive note, with US markets closed for the President's Day holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields rose on the likelihood of increased public spending on defence. Peripheral spreads narrowed as German bonds came under some selling pressure ahead of Sunday's general election.
Yesterday's session was a quiet one, with investors assessing mixed signals of the progress toward a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East conflict, while US President Trump threatened of increasing the strikes would the Strait of Ormuz not reopen before noon today. Brent crude prices closed near $110/barrel after a choppy trading session.
Yesterday's session was mixed across asset classes and regions. In the Eurozone, sovereign yields rose and peripheral spreads widened as countries grapple with the need for higher military spending. Separately, ECB's Schnabel argued the 2.75% rate is not undoubtedly restrictive, while ECB's Panetta argued that the consumer-led recovery is not materialising.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-off mood following the downward revision of the European Commission forecasts. While 2022 GDP for the euro are was barely revised to 2.6%, 2023's changed from 2.3% to 1.4%. The EC revised its inflation forecasts from 6.1% and 2.7% to 7.6% and 4.0% for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Markets ended the week in a mixed mood (stocks declined, safe-haven currencies rose) as investors closed positions ahead of low trading in August. The publication of the Financial Markets Daily Report will stop for a few weeks, but we will be keeping an eye on markets and be back by the end of August. We wish our readers a great summer break.
Central banks took center stage, with a broadly hawkish tilt across major economies. The ECB left the depo rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected, but highlighted stagflationary risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, as markets now fully price in two rate hikes in 2026, while the euro recovered and equities declined sharply.
Financial markets' sentiment improved in the first session of the week. Investors perceived that monetary and financial authorities are going to act in order to offset the negative impact that coronavirus can have on the economy.
Economic data releases on Friday boosted investors' sentiment and allowed sovereign yields to edge down and equities to advance. Price pressures continue to moderate but remain elevated, according to the ISM prices paid index in the US (which fell from 67.8 to 65.6) and the PPI in the euro area (which declined from 24.5% to 15.0% y/y).
Investors traded cautiously amid heightened tariff uncertainty, fresh rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine, and mixed macro data. In the US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell to its lowest level since 2021, while the German Ifo business climate index rose, as companies' expectations about the future improved.
Investors started the week on a positive mood, favoring risky assets amid supportive economic releases. Volatility declined, stock markets rallied across advanced and emerging economies, most currencies strengthened against the USD and commodity prices rebounded on the back of positive market sentiment.
In the last session of the week, financial markets’ sentiment bounced from the previous day plunge and stock indices and sovereign yields rose across the board.
European stock markets ended the week on a positive note while the main U.S. indices were mixed, with a slight decrease for the Nasdaq and a small gain for the S&P 500.
In a session with no big economic data releases, except for the -1.1% m/m December retail sales in the euro area, investors reassessed their expectation on the upcoming central bank interest rate cuts.
Global stock markets performed positively yesterday with modest increases in the S&P 500 and in the main European indices, except for the Portuguese and the French indices that closed with moderate losses.
Investors' sentiment continued to deteriorate amid escalating trade tensions and Russia's initial refusal to agree to a truce in Ukraine. Equity markets ended lower, particularly in the US, and Treasury yields fell as investors increased their demand for safe-haven US government debt. Oil prices declined as markets weighed the risk that the tariff war could dampen global energy demand.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment improved amid optimistic comments from Russian officials, which increased the odds of a diplomatic solution, and following the description of the outlook from Jerome Powell, who said the US economy is very strong and with an extremely tight labor market.
Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply into the end of the week, as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets. Brent crude rose to USD 112/bbl while global equities sold off, led by US indices, with the Nasdaq now down around 10% from its recent peak.
Investors traded yesterday with a risk-on mood, despite the continuing tensions between China and the US, fueled by the gradual reopening of economies and amid optimism on the economic recovery.
Investors traded with cautious optimism at the last session of the week, still hopeful a resolution in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could be possible. In addition, a meeting by US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping over the crisis in Ukraine ended without big surprises.