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Investors closed the week with a cautious mood amid mixed economic data releases in the U.S. and dovish comments from ECB officials. In particular, the Finnish and Lithuanian central banks' chiefs insisted that the current inflation is transitory, although it may last longer than initially expected.

In the last session of the week, equity markets edged modestly higher, despite lingering doubts over the return on Big Tech investment in AI and questions around the robustness of corporate fundamentals, set against a backdrop of generally supportive macroeconomic data.

Yesterday session was risk-on, with global stocks advancing, led by Japan, where the Nikkei-225 registered gains of nearly 4% after the Liberal Democratic Party obtained the supermajority in the Lower House elections, allowing prime minister Sanae Takaichi to continue pursuing expansionary fiscal policies.

Euro area investor sentiment recovered following the EU-US trade deal, sending stocks higher across the region. In the US, investors traded in a risk-off mood on news that, after two days of negotiations in Stockholm, Chinese and US officials failed to deliver a trade deal and agreed only to seek an extension of the 90-day tariff truce. Stocks fell, and Treasuries rallied.

Initial optimism over the EU-U.S. trade deal, which had boosted European stocks early in the trading session, soon faded and the region's main indices closed lower with losses led by German stocks (-1%). U.S. stocks had a choppy session and ended mostly flat, while large-cap tech stocks edged higher. The euro slipped to just below $1.16, its lowest in over a month

Yesterday's session was once again dominated by the uncertainty around the 2019's Italian fiscal deficit. In this context, the Italian risk premium continued to rise and exceeded the maximums reached in May (above 300bp).

The main stock markets in advanced and emerging economies registered gains, with the exception of the Portuguese PSI and the Shanghai Index.

Improved sentiment during yesterday's session was driven by optimism on trade talks between the EU and the US, and macroeconomic developments. US consumer confidence strongly rebounded, with the Conference Board index jumping to 98.0 in May from 85.7, and in France, inflation rose 0.6% yoy in May vs. 0.9% expected, and down from 0.9% in April.

Stock markets posted gains across Europe and the US, while sovereign yields moved in opposite directions as they recorded mild declines in the eurozone and moderate increases in the US.

Financial markets started the week with a risk-on session, as investors shifted their focus to corporate earnings and economic indicators, taking a breath from the prospect of monetary policy tightening by the major central banks.

In the last session of the week investors focused on the increasing bets for a tightening of monetary policy across advanced economies and the better-than-expected corporate earnings releases.

Yesterday, global financial markets were marked by heightened investor caution amid rising fiscal uncertainty and underwhelming macroeconomic indicators. In the US, the House of Representatives narrowly approved a sweeping tax and spending package projected to inflate the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove a risk-off move across markets on Friday, with Brent crude rising above USD 100/barrel as concerns over energy supply disruptions intensified. Global equities declined, while the US dollar strengthened as a safe haven, pushing the EURUSD cross toward 1.14.

Central banks took center stage, with a broadly hawkish tilt across major economies. The ECB left the depo rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected, but highlighted stagflationary risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, as markets now fully price in two rate hikes in 2026, while the euro recovered and equities declined sharply.

Investors kicked off the week on a cautious note after Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns about the country's fiscal trajectory, rising debt burden and high interest costs. With this downgrade, the US lost its only remaining triple A credit rating.

The last session of the week was marked by the announcement of the Italian 2019's fiscal deficit target (2.4% of GDP), which weighted on most European assets.

Financial markets were less volatile in the first session of the week as investors digested the latest Jerome Powell's comments on the upcoming official interest rate moves (more flexible and aware to risks).

Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply into the end of the week, as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets. Brent crude rose to USD 112/bbl while global equities sold off, led by US indices, with the Nasdaq now down around 10% from its recent peak.

Concerns over the economic growth impact of the Middle East conflict gained prominence, prompting a rotation into sovereign bonds after recent selling pressure driven by inflation fears. Equity markets were mixed globally, with sharp losses in Asia, modest gains in the euro area, and slight declines in the US.