Stocks rallied in yesterday's session, supported by recovering economic data. In particular, U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 4.8 million in June –the largest increase on record, even though the unemployment rate still stood above 10% (11.1% in June down from 13.3% in May). Yet, U.S. sovereign yields nudged down and the USD strengthened.
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In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid fears of new covid-19 cases and doubts on a united ECB response in case further stimulus is required. European stock indices edged lower while EM equities surged, led by Chinese equities. US financial markets were closed because of the Independence Day.
Investors started the week with optimism and a risk-on mood. Despite the increase in COVID-19 cases around the globe, optimism surged on the back of better-than-expected business sentiment indicators.
Macroeconomic events and data releases shadowed latest developments of the Ukrainian war, as the ECB meeting and US CPI inflation centered stage in financial markets. On the latter, headline inflation rose as expected in February from 7.5% to 7.9% and core inflation rose from 6.0% to 6.4%.
A strong US jobs report for January, with the unemployment rate falling 0.1 p.p. to 4.0% (the lowest since May) and wage growth accelerating to 4.1% yoy from 3.9% in December, reaffirmed expectations of a cautious Fed this year. Expectations for the next interest rate cut were delayed to July/September, and the probability of a second rate cut fell below 50%.
Global markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields advanced as investors eyed negotiations over the EU stimulus plan ahead of the European Council.
As no relevant news came from the conflict in the Middle East, yesterday's session still had volatile energy markets but no major drivers. Brent crude prices closed nearly flat at USD 80/bbl, while TTF natural gas prices continued to ease, closing the session just above EUR 40/MWh. Volatility decreased after Wednesday's sharp increase following the Fed's meeting.
In yesterday’s session, investors traded with a focus on geopolitical developments ahead of the ceasefire deadline set by President Trump. Markets opened with a risk-off tone but pared losses as the session progressed, particularly in the US, and energy prices rose. An agreement was ultimately reached shortly after midnight CET.
Financial markets ended the week with mixed results, balancing the positive tone from the corporate results for the Q3 earning season with disappointing survey economic data in Europe.
Financial markets had a mixed performance on Wednesday. US Treasury yields were flat as the Fed kept rates unchanged and Powell said the Fed was in no rush to cut rates and will wait to see the impact of Trump's policies on the economy.
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On Friday, the release of HICP inflation data in the euro area centered the stage in financial markets. Headline inflation fell sharply from 8.5% to 6.9% y/y in March, but core inflation ticked up to 7.5% in a sign that price pressures are persisting. In this context, ECB member Villeroy de Galhau said there are still some more rate hikes to do.
European sovereign yields edged up on the back of upbeat comments from the ECB's Chief Economist Peter Praet, which gave investors greater confidence in the ECB's intentions to gradually wind down net asset purchases in the coming months.
Investors traded more cautiously in yesterday's session -in spite of the meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials, in which they reaffirmed the implementation of the phase-one trade deal which had been signed in January. In this context, U.S. and EM stocks advanced moderately, while European stock market indices were mixed.
In yesterday's session, investors' concerns about the pace of economic activity in the coming months led to a generalized risk-off sentiment. In particular, the US manufacturing ISM declined from 47.7 to 46.3 while the prices paid subcomponent fell too (from 51.1 to 49.2).
A shocking inflation release in the US centered the stage yesterday in financial markets. Headline CPI rose in June by 9.1% y/y and 1.3 m/m, reinforcing the Federal Reserve intention to raise rates by 75bp again at its July meeting. Additionally, investors have started to price in a 100bp hike, in line with yesterday's decision of the Bank of Canada.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously in absence of key macroeconomic data releases and as they waited for monetary policy meetings this week in the main central banks.
During yesterday's session, investors continued to assess the results of the French elections last weekend which left the country with a fragmented National Assembly. Financial markets seemed to value the situation negatively and adopted a risk-averse tone, sending euro area sovereign bond yields higher and equities sharply lower, particularly in France.
Investors ended the day with positive results, after strong sentiment data in Europe (Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to the highest level in two years) and labour statistics in the US (new jobless claims fell to 411,000 weekly). In addition, President Biden announced a deal in the Senate on an infrastructure package worth USD 1.2 trillion.
Yesterday’s session centered around the June inflation report from the US: inflation cooled to 3.0% in June (from 3.3% in May) and core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.4% last month. On a monthly basis, prices fell –0.1%, the first negative rate in four years. Markets are discounting two interest rate cut from the Fed in 2024, and a 40% probability of a third cut.