In yesterday’s session, investors paid attention to economic data in the US pointing to a further cool down in the labor market and to the BoE monetary policy meeting, where interest rates were kept unchanged at 5.25%, as expected.
Resultats de la cerca
In another session without major macroeconomic references, monetary policy took center stage. The Riksbank decided to reduce its official interest rate by 25 bp to 3.75%, the first cut since 2016, and ECB and Fed officials commented on their respective economic and monetary policy outlooks.
In yesterday’s session investors traded cautiously as they awaited today’s release of September US employment report, which should give further signs for the future path of interest rates. Weekly US unemployment claims, released yesterday, ticked up modestly as expected and set the stage for today’s data.
A week-long losing streak in global stock markets ceased on Friday as better than expected earnings results outweighed a worsening of coronavirus cases in the US and Europe. In Europe, the Eurostoxx50 ended the session 1.7% higher despite new coronavirus retrictions in some cities, while the S&P 500 edged up very slightly.
Investors' mood worsened yesterday amid increasing COVID-19 cases around the globe and worse-than-expected employment data in the US. In particular, initial jobless claims increased last week by 898k (+53k compared with the previous week), the highest level since August.
Global markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields advanced as investors eyed negotiations over the EU stimulus plan ahead of the European Council.
Investors continued to readjust their expectations about the future pace of monetary policy tightening, after data showed real GDP fell by 0.2% q/q in the US in Q2, the second consecutive quarterly decline.
Investors closed the week trading cautiously under a volatile setting, still digesting political developments in the UK and signs of lingering inflationary pressures. In Europe, natural gas prices fell notably, following reports that Germany is likely to support a price cap to be included in the next EU package, to be agreed in coming weeks.
In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously as they continued to assess the intensity and duration of the monetary policy tightening that central banks are likely to agree this week and in the coming months.
In yesterday's session investors traded with a somewhat risk-on mood as they downplayed the messages from central bank officers. From the US Federal Reserve, Raphael Bostic said that inflation will come down relatively slowly, which will not urge a fast change from the restrictive monetary policy stance.
In yesterday's session investors continued to assess the Fed's next move regarding interest rates following Wednesday's FOMC meeting. In particular, markets seem to have taken Powell's downplay of the possibility of hiking rates given the recent inflation figures as a confirmation that the next move will be a cut.
At its meeting yesterday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, and the Fed's policy statement kept its economic assessment and policy guidance without changes. Powell signaled the next move is unlikely to be an interest rate hike as the Fed is still leaning towards an eventual cut, despite needing greater confidence to do so.
Markets started the week showing greater risk appetite as the World Health Organization listed AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies, the USD weakened moderately and commodity prices edged up. U.S. markets were closed for the Presidents day holiday.
Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await key economic releases this week, including euro area 1Q GDP (today), which is expected to show the economy grew 0.2% yoy, euro area April inflation (today) expected to stay at 2.4% yoy, and the Fed’s FOMC meeting tomorrow, where markets anticipate no changes to the Fed’s target rate.
Financial markets started the week on a risk-off mood, as the Russian gas cut off worsened the European energy crisis and the region’s economic outlook.
In the last session of the week, financial markets’ sentiment bounced from the previous day plunge and stock indices and sovereign yields rose across the board.
In a session with no big economic data releases, except for the -1.1% m/m December retail sales in the euro area, investors reassessed their expectation on the upcoming central bank interest rate cuts.
Financial markets ended the week with another risk-off session as investors continued to consider the potential damage that coronavirus may have on the economy.
Market sentiment steadied in the second session of the week. Volatility eased and global stocks (with the exception of Asia) recovered some of the ground lost on Monday.
Financial markets started the week with a slight risk-averse tone as investors await inflation data, to be released later this week, that will be key in determining interest rates’ future path. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board, while equity indices edged lower in the US and the euro area.