In yesterday’s session, investors traded with a risk-on mood as the US Senate passed a bill that averted a government shutdown. The bill still has yet to pass the House of Representatives, but if it succeeds, the Federal government will be able to fund itself until early March.
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Investors continued to trade with caution at the start of the week, still digesting the hawkish rhetoric at Jackson Hole conference last weekend and taking on board mixed signals from ECB officials, after chief economist Philip Lane cautioned against outsized interest rate hikes, calling instead for a "steady pace" until the end of its hiking cycle.
Optimism about the economic recovery favored a rotation into cyclical equities as investors digested the U.S. Senate's approval of Biden's $1.9tn fiscal package. European stocks rose across the board while tech-related stocks sold off and weighed on the U.S.' Nasdaq and S&P 500 benchmarks.
In the last session of the week, investors' sentiment improved as the odds for a 100bp hike in the next US Federal Reserve meeting decreased.
Investor sentiment improved in the first session of the week boosted by better-than-expected business sentiment indicators in advanced economies and a stabilization of investor's concerns over the coronavirus impact on the economy.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-off mood following the downward revision of the European Commission forecasts. While 2022 GDP for the euro are was barely revised to 2.6%, 2023's changed from 2.3% to 1.4%. The EC revised its inflation forecasts from 6.1% and 2.7% to 7.6% and 4.0% for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
A shocking inflation release in the US centered the stage yesterday in financial markets. Headline CPI rose in June by 9.1% y/y and 1.3 m/m, reinforcing the Federal Reserve intention to raise rates by 75bp again at its July meeting. Additionally, investors have started to price in a 100bp hike, in line with yesterday's decision of the Bank of Canada.
During Friday’s session, markets traded with a slightly higher risk appetite to end a week without any major economic data releases. Sovereign bond yields fell across the board, most notably on the longer ends of the curves, while the main equity indices advanced slightly.
Financial markets started the week with a slight risk-averse tone as investors await inflation data, to be released later this week, that will be key in determining interest rates’ future path. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board, while equity indices edged lower in the US and the euro area.
In the last session of the week, financial markets’ sentiment bounced from the previous day plunge and stock indices and sovereign yields rose across the board.
Financial markets ended the week with another risk-off session as investors continued to consider the potential damage that coronavirus may have on the economy.
In a session with no big economic data releases, except for the -1.1% m/m December retail sales in the euro area, investors reassessed their expectation on the upcoming central bank interest rate cuts.
Market sentiment steadied in the second session of the week. Volatility eased and global stocks (with the exception of Asia) recovered some of the ground lost on Monday.
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously amid mixed economic data releases. In the US, the services ISM declined from 53.4 to 52.6 in February, with the prices paid subcomponent declining from 64.0 to 58.6,. easing analysts' concerns of a further spike in inflationary pressures.
During a volatile session, financial markets closed with mixed results, balancing out another upside surprise in HICP inflation data in the eurozone (up by 9.1% y/y in August) with signs that job creation in the US may have moderated in August (according to the ADP survey).
Investors ended the week digesting a raft of month-end economic data on both sides of the Atlantic. In the Eurozone, Thursday's release of August inflation figures, which showed headline inflation stable at 5.3%, sent sovereign bond yields higher and major stock indices lower on Friday, despite an encouraging slowdown in core inflation.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a cautious mood as they weighed positive economic releases (UK factories' sentiment improved according to a survey and U.S. home sales rose close to a two-year high) against the resignation of Italy's M5S head Luigi Di Maio and the economic impact of the Chinese coronavirus outbreak.
Yesterday’s session was driven by the US February CPI report, which showed inflation last month was 3.2% yoy, slightly higher than January’s reading at 3.1%. Despite the slight acceleration, markets still expect the Fed to begin cutting rates this year, betting on a total of 4 cuts, with the first one being on June (with 77% probability).
Investors started the week with a cautious mood as they wait for the release of this week's Q1 corporate results and the ECB monetary policy meeting.
In yesterday's session financial markets experienced risk aversion flows. Despite the positive results presented by some companies, the increase in COVID cases around the globe led investors to move from equities tied to the economic cycle to safer assets such as sovereign bonds, gold and safe haven currencies.