During yesterday's session, investors continued to assess the results of the French elections last weekend which left the country with a fragmented National Assembly. Financial markets seemed to value the situation negatively and adopted a risk-averse tone, sending euro area sovereign bond yields higher and equities sharply lower, particularly in France.
Resultats de la cerca
Investors closed the week trading with more appetite for risk, taking on board another upside surprise in labour market data in the US and easing financial pressure in the country’s regional banks.
Risk aversion continued to set the tone during a volatile session on Tuesday, as a better-than-expected sentiment data in the US revived concerns among investors about the pace of monetary policy tightening by the Fed.
Yesterday’s session centered around the June inflation report from the US: inflation cooled to 3.0% in June (from 3.3% in May) and core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.4% last month. On a monthly basis, prices fell –0.1%, the first negative rate in four years. Markets are discounting two interest rate cut from the Fed in 2024, and a 40% probability of a third cut.
Financial markets started the week with all eyes on the ECB’s Governing Council meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and stick to its "data dependency" approach. European sovereign bond yields fell and peripheral spreads tightened yesterday ahead of the meeting and today's Q2 Bank Lending Survey.
Markets on both sides of the Atlantic saw mixed results yesterday. In the eurozone, where all eyes are on tomorrow’s ECB meeting, sovereign bond yields fell while peripheral spreads remained flat after the ZEW survey showed German business sentiment at its lowest in four months in July and despite the Q2 BLS showing an increase in credit demand.
In the first session of the week, investors' sentiment deteriorated amid concerns on whether the ongoing withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation will be able to tackle inflationary pressures without leading to a recession.
Investors continued to trade cautiously yesterday amid messages from central banks signaling the end of the interest rates hiking cycle. Nevertheless, Christine Lagarde said that more evidence is needed to be sure that inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target.
Stocks rallied in yesterday's session, supported by recovering economic data. In particular, U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 4.8 million in June –the largest increase on record, even though the unemployment rate still stood above 10% (11.1% in June down from 13.3% in May). Yet, U.S. sovereign yields nudged down and the USD strengthened.
Investors continued to trade with caution during the last session of the week. In the US, a stronger-than-expected rise in PPI inflation (0.3% m/m and 7.4% y/y in November) triggered a pickup in sovereign bond yields and a decline in stock indices, as investors reassessed their expectations for monetary policy ahead.
In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid hawkish comments from some FOMC member and mixed results in the US corporate earnings season. In particular, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that more evidence that US inflation is easing will be needed before changing the monetary policy stance.
Financial markets had a mixed session yesterday, although the overall mood among investors remained gloomy as they await today's U.S. inflation report for August, which is expected to show easing price pressures. Government bond yields fell across the board on both sides of the Atlantic.
Investors traded with caution in yesterday’s session, amid mixed economic data releases and hawkish central banks’ communication. In particular, the minutes of the last ECB meeting showed how Governing Council members agreed to further tighten monetary policy if the inflation outlook in March’s projections is confirmed.
Investors started the week with a greater risk appetite than the previous one. Sovereign bond yields were mixed among regions and maturities while, in the money markets, yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the first session of the week, investors awaited for clues on the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.
Investors traded cautiously in the last session of the week. Volatility eased after Thursday's sell-off and stocks recovered some ground on Friday but still closed the week suffering their largest weekly loss since March.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's release of the US jobs report. Other labor market data released yesterday, like the ADP report, showed non-farm private employment cooled in August, while weekly jobless claims fell, pointing to weakening demand in the labor market, although layoffs remain low.
Investors started the week trading with no clear direction, taking on board mixed signals from the ECB and looking ahead for a new batch of corporate results and the Q1 GDP data for the world’s largest economies later this week.
Investor optimism around trade talks led to a moderate risk-on mood at the end of the week. In particular, officials said that sections of the first phase of a trade deal between the U.S. and China are nearly completed.
Investors continued to trade cautiously in yesterday's session as COVID-19 cases continued rising in Europe and in the US. In this context, demand for safe assets (such as the Japanese Yen or the Swiss Franc) increased on a day in which US markets were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday.