Correction session for the markets, characterised by nervousness ahead of the looming tariff threat on April 2nd, as referenced by central banks, and an upcoming corporate earnings season that may begin to reflect these concerns in companies' forecasts.
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Risk appetite recovered somewhat yesterday. In a volatile session ahead of today's announcement by Trump of reciprocal US tariffs on virtually every other country in the world, investors assessed a series of price and activity data as increasing the chances of rate cuts.
Yesterday all eyes were on Trump's tariffs announcement, which took place after US markets had closed. Trump finally set tariffs close to the worst expectations, with a 34% tariff for China, 20% for the EU and 24% for Japan. Asian equities are down at today's session (Nikkei around -3%), while stock index futures for Europe and the US point to similar losses.
Financial markets had a mixed session on Friday, closing off a highly volatile week with large swings in asset valuations amid chaotic tariff announcements, increased trade tensions, and heightened uncertainty. The latest announcement came from China, which retaliated against the US by increasing the tariff on US imports to 125%.
Financial markets saw a mixed session as investors navigate trade policy unpredictability and weigh the economic outlook. In the euro area, industrial production rose +1.1% mom in March, while the German ZEW economic sentiment index registered its largest monthly decline since 2022 due to uncertainty derived from US tariffs.
Investor risk appetite recovered somewhat on Tuesday. In the Eurozone, government bond yields fell as several ECB officials commented that inflation could stabilise at its 2% target sooner than expected just a few weeks ago. The US Treasury curve steepened, as short-term yields rose as traders bet that the US could strike some favourable trade deals with key partners.
Investors' risk appetite remained high yesterday as US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the current level of US-China tariffs is unsustainable. Trump also seemed confident over an eventual deal with China. The end point for tariff levels remains unclear, but Bessent said about the deal's term that a "reasonable estimate" would be to have it in place by Q3.
Investors' risk appetite rebounded slightly last week, a trend that largely continued into Friday's session. In the eurozone, government bond yields rose slightly, even though ECB's Holzmann, who had been advocating for a pause in rate cuts, acknowledged the disinflationary impact of tariffs and said the ECB's next rate decisions were "completely open".
Financial markets were mixed during yesterday's session. In the US, sovereign bond yields decreased, reaching a three-week low as investors gained confidence the US Administration is searching for a tariff de-escalation through trade deals. In the euro area, sovereign yields increased, despite ECB officials warning uncertainty due to a trade war will bring lower growth.
A better-than-expected employment report in the US eased fears of a severe economic downturn, pushing expectations of a first Fed rate cut back one meeting to July and lowering total expected cuts in 2025 from four to three. Sovereign bond yields rose on both sides of the Atlantic following the report and stock markets rallied.
Investors kicked-off the week with a quiet session following last week's heavy-data week, which included US Q1 GDP and euro area inflation. This week, markets' attention will shift back to central meetings. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in Wednesday, and the BoE is expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut on Thursday.
Investors traded cautiously during yesterday's session. Concerns over the US debt rating downgrade continued to weigh on US assets, driving long term Treasury yields higher and US stocks lower, with the S&P 500 ending six straight sessions of gains. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials further dampened sentiment.
Investor risk appetite ended the week positively, as US non-farm payroll figures for May came in higher than expected, with job creation gradually cooling (139k in May versus 147k in April), though there are still no major signs of strain from Trump's tariffs. This should give the Fed more time before cutting rates, causing Fed Funds futures and US Treasury yields to rise.
Markets traded cautiously as investors awaited news regarding trade negotiations between the US and China. The World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast, pointing to uncertainty brought by trade war as the main cause. In today's session, financial markets will focus on US CPI data for May.
Amidst elevated geopolitical risks, investors traded cautiously ahead of the FOMC's meeting. The Fed left rates unchanged and still forecasts two rate cuts in 2025 (showing greater dispersion and a slightly hawkish bias than before) but signalling a slower pace of easing ahead. Powell warned that tariffs could push inflation for goods higher over the summer.
Markets ended the week on a cautious note as heightened tensions in the Middle East, renewed trade uncertainty, and monetary policy actions weighed on investor sentiment. Sovereign bond yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic as demand for safe-haven assets rose.
U.S. sovereign yields advanced, the USD strengthened moderately and stocks rose after a solid labor market report and as House Republicans came together to pass Trump's budget bill (OBBBA). Investors trimmed expectations about Fed cuts, with market-implied odds of a July cut down to 5% from 25%, and futures on December 2025's FFR rose over 10bp.
Investors ended the week in a cautious mood. With U.S. markets closed on Friday for Independence Day, European stock markets declined across the board while euro area sovereign yields were little changed in both core and peripheral countries. The euro fluctuated close to, but below, $1.18.
Investors traded in a mixed mood in a session in which Donald Trump threatened a 35% tariff on Canada (for goods outside USMCA) and floated the idea of a 15%-20% global baseline tariff rate (currently, 10%). Stocks advanced modestly in the U.S. but declined in Europe. Sovereign yields rose, and the EUR weakened and traded below $1.17 (touching 10-day lows).
Sentiment recovered during yesterday's session following a stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for June (+0.6% mom vs. 0.1% expected, and up from -0.9% in May), highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy. Global stock markets advanced and the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high.