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Markets ended the week with a relief rally, recovering only a fraction of the decline in previous sessions, after a week dominated by monetary policy decisions by major central banks and fears among investors of an economic recession.

Investors started the week trading cautiously optimistic, in a session characterized by low volumes due to a holiday in the US and no major macro data releases.

In yesterday's session, financial markets closed with mixed results as several drivers affected sentiment differently. While the easing of Chinese lockdowns measures boosted risk appetite, the worse-than-expected reading of US consumer confidence (98.7, down from 106.4) erased initial signs of recovery in risky assets.

In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-off mood as recessionary concerns spread across financial markets,  following the release of the decrease in US real personal spending (from a downward revised +0.3% to -0.4% in May).

Investors started the week with mixed results, taking on board hawkish commentaries by some ECB officials and news reporting that the US government may announce a decision to lift certain tariffs on Chinese imports.

Risk aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Tuesday, as investors reassessed the risk of a global recession amid ongoing disruptions in gas supply in Europe and reports of new COVID cases in some regions in China.

In the first session of the week, investors' sentiment improved slightly and preference for riskier assets increased.

Investors focused yesterday on the ECB Governing Council meeting, where interest rates were raised by 75bp, and US Federal Reserve hawkish comments. Both central banks showed determination to tackle elevated inflation and to bring it back to their 2% target.

Risk aversion continued to set the tone on Thursday, with sentiment hampered by fears that elevated inflation could keep central banks in a tightening cycle for longer and the increasing threat of energy rationing in Europe this winter.

Investors' optimism faded away in yesterday's session as concerns about a recession mounted and central bank officials insisted on tightening monetary policy. Sovereign yields surged and equities fell in both sides of the Atlantic, while oil prices rose modestly after the OPEC+ confirmed that it plans to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. 

Risk appetite extended gains across markets on Tuesday, as investors took on board positive signals from corporate earnings, a further softening in US sentiment and housing indicators and a decline in gas prices across the globe.

Financial markets closed with mixed results during a highly volatile session on Thursday, as investors digested policy announcements by the ECB and upside surprises in economic data in the US (GDP rose by 2.6% SAAR in Q3).

Financial markets started the week trading with no clear direction, swinging between modest gains and losses across equity markets in Europe and Asia, during a session characterized by low volumes due to a national holiday in the US.

Risk appetite continued to set the tone on Tuesday, as investors shrug off data showing GDP stalled in China in Q4, mixed results from some US banks during the Q4 earnings season and hawkish messages from some ECB officials.

Financial markets closed with mixed results during a volatile session on Wednesday, as investors weighted out data in the US showing a weak year-end for retail sales (-1.1% m/m in December) and industrial production (-0.7%) with signs of further easing in inflationary pressures (headline PPI fell by 0.5% m/m in December).

Investors continued to err on the side of caution on Thursday, still digesting weak economic data pointing to a global economic slowdown and a new round of hawkish signals from the ECB.

Investors kicked off a busy week of macro data releases and central bank decisions with a cautious approach, taking on board signs of lingering inflationary pressures across Europe as well as disappointing GDP figures in Germany(-0.2% q/q after +0.5% in Q3, ahead of the release of the eurozone aggregate this morning).

Risk appetite continued to set the tone across financial markets on Thursday, fueled by expectations that the cycle of monetary policy tightening may be nearing its end.

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session following revisions of some key economic indicators. In the euro area, headline and core inflation for January were revised by +0.1pp to 8.6% and 5.3%, respectively, and, in the US, 4Q GDP growth was revised by –0.2pp to 2.7% q/q SAAR, mainly due to a softer private consumption.

Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric before the US Senate pushed upwards the financial market expectations for interest rates path ahead. In particular, investors now attach a higher probability to a 50bp hike than to a 25bp move at March’s meeting.