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Markets closed Friday on a mixed note as attention remained on the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, although Trump signalled openness to a deal with Iran. Oil prices ended little changed after a choppy session and TTF gas prices fell.

Investor sentiment was mixed in yesterday's session. Energy prices crept up as the U.S. and Iran continued to exchange fire and Brent oil briefly topped $95. Stocks rose across Europe but the U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower amid a mixed performance of tech stocks and ahead of key Q2 earnings releases.

Markets ended Friday with a cautious tone as lower energy prices supported sovereign bond yields amid resilient macroeconomic data. Yields declined on both sides of the Atlantic, more markedly in the euro area, with peripheral spreads tightening, as Brent crude retreated from $100/barrel.

Risk appetite surged on Monday as US strikes on Iran remained paused for a second consecutive night. Energy prices declined sharply, with Brent dropping below $90 per barrel. This lowered inflation expectations, with euro area 1Y inflation swaps falling by around 0.2 p.p. to 2.4%. Sovereign yields also declined across the board, particularly in the euro area.

Markets weighed lower geopolitical risk and falling energy prices against growing concerns over AI-capex returns. Brent oil fell to $84/barrel, lowering  inflation expectations (especially in the short-term) and sovereign yields on both sides of the Atlantic.

Risk appetite improved on Thursday amid supportive macro data and lower energy prices, as war tensions around Hormuz did not escalate. Eurozone sovereign yields fell, with steeper curves and tighter peripheral spreads, after GDP growth surprised to the upside across the euro area and its main economies. ECB expectations were little changed ahead of today’s June CPI print, though markets pared odds of a third rate hike.

Thursday's session shifted toward a risk-on tone, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled openness to holding rates steady. Markets pared bets on a September Fed rate hike (to 50%), lifting equities and bonds on both sides of the Atlantic while weighing on the dollar.

The week started with US markets closed for Labour Day. Elsewhere, energy prices edged higher, lifting eurozone market-based inflation expectations as well as ECB rate expectations. A hike at Thursday's meeting is priced by investors as almost certain, as well as two additional increases discounted over the next twelve months.

A renewed surge in energy prices, which sent Brent crude oil above $100 and TTF natural gas close to €80, set a risk-off tone across markets. Inflation expectations rose, as did expectations of central bank tightening, with markets pricing around 85 bps of ECB tightening over the next 12 months (starting with 25 bps today), and almost 70 bps for the Fed.

Markets started the week in a distinctly risk-off mood, shaped by a combination of surging energy prices, AI sector uneasiness, and strong market expectations for a Fed rate hike ahead of Wednesday's policy decision. Equities fell broadly, with European indices underperforming their U.S. counterparts.

Risk sentiment improved on Tuesday as Treasury yields retreated from multi-decade highs and energy-related inflation concerns continued to ease. Technology stocks led gains, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh record while the Eurostoxx50 rose 0.5%.

A broad risk-off move dominated Wednesday's session, with Brent crude remaining above $100/barrel amid reports of increased Iranian attacks on tankers crossing Hormuz. In the eurozone, concerns over France's fiscal situation deepened after comments from the Banque de France governor ruling out an ECB intervention.

Thursday's session carried a cautious tone. Market concerns over the sustainability of AI investments weighed on chipmakers and technology equities, but the main U.S. stock market benchmarks ended higher while European indices were mixed. Brent oil and TTF natural gas prices nudged down.

Brent and TTF saw significant volatility during the session, with initial gains fading on signals from Iran regarding potential peace negotiations, before prices recovered some ground later in the day. Brent recorded its second consecutive daily decline (-1,7%), while TTF edged slightly lower.

Risk sentiment improved at the start of the week as signs of renewed diplomatic engagement between Iran and U.S. triggered a sharp correction in energy prices, easing inflation concerns. Brent crude fell around 10% and Dutch TTF natural gas prices also moved markedly lower, supporting both sovereign bonds and equities.

US midterm elections roil global markets. European equities traded cautiously and US indices showed a volatile session, as early projections pointed to a Democratic victory. Investors focused on control of Congress and its implications for the Trump administration's room for manoeuvre on fiscal and regulatory policy. Against this backdrop, Treasury yields declined and the dollar weakened against most G10 currencies.

Investors took stock after the significant gains of the last sessions and stocks advanced moderately.

International stock and sovereign bonds markets remained relatively unchanged during the last day of the week.

Equities went down in most of the developed countries as investors are assessing earnings and remain prudent before the ECB meeting.