Risk appetite stabilised on Monday after early pressure from Middle East escalation, firmer Fed rate-hike expectations and a continued tech-led correction, with a late rebound in US equities containing losses. In commodities, Brent crude rose on renewed Iran–Israel tensions, though intraday headlines improved the outlook and capped gains.
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Risk-off sentiment built through Thursday’s session, initially driven by AI-led weakness in tech, followed by a mixed May US CPI (headline in line with expectations and core MoM below), and later by renewed geopolitical tensions after Trump announced a second round of US strikes on Iran, which started already around the US close.
Yesterday's session was marked by late optimism after President Trump called off the US-planned strikes on Iran, after reportedly having advanced negotiations with Tehran. Brent crude prices dropped nearly 3%, to settle just above $90/bbl, while gold rebounded more than 3%, being priced above $4200/ounce at session-ending.
Wednesday saw a mixed session, as easing geopolitical tensions drove down commodities and sovereign yields, while equities remained pressured by concerns around tech companies' valuations. In commodities, energy prices declined, led by Brent crude, while gold fell on the back of a stronger dollar and higher expected real rates.
Risk sentiment improved on Thursday, before late-session Hormuz tensions soured it. In commodities, crude oil prices reversed course and ended the day rising after of a missile strike on a container vessel in Hormuz, while natural gas prices of European benchmarks fell. Gold rose on safe-haven demand.
Investors' risk appetite remained subdued on Friday, as lower oil prices prevailed despite heightened disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where a UK Navy-confirmed tanker strike on late Thursday temporarily raised maritime threat levels.
Risk aversion intensified on Monday after President Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade for Iranian ships and imposed a transit levy on non-Iranian cargo, fuelling concerns over energy supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices rose sharply, inflation expectations moved higher and market volatility increased.
Thursday was dominated by a hawkish-hold FOMC, ongoing AI-capex concerns, and a sharp re-escalation of the US-Iran war.
Tuesday's session opened September on a risk-off note. The re-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions continued to fuel a rally in oil and gas prices, adding pressure to market-based inflation expectations and reinforcing market-implied probabilities of Fed and ECB rate hikes.
Markets closed on a mixed note on Friday, as a blowout US employment report showed job creation well above expectations in August (162,000 vs. 55,000 expected), alongside an upward revision to July's figures. Hawkish comments from the Fed's Hammack also pushed up market expectations for a Fed rate hike, with a September move priced in again.
A risk-off mood prevailed across financial markets on Tuesday, as energy prices rose, with Brent crude oil nearing $100 and TTF natural gas climbing above €75. Market-based inflation expectations increased, particularly in the US, as did expectations for higher interest rates, with a Fed hike next week priced at a 60% probability.
Thursday's session carried a broadly constructive tone. Equities rallied across most advanced and emerging economies, with the technology sector as a standout performer. In commodity markets, crude oil retreated for a second consecutive session (amid reports that China is asking Iran to rein in Houthi attacks). TTF natural gas also declined.
Wednesday saw a risk-off session in financial markets, as stronger-than-expected September PMIs, hawkish ECB and Fed comments, and higher Brent prices prompted an upward repricing of inflation expectations and policy rates, with markets pricing more than four ECB hikes and almost four Fed hikes over the next 12 months.
A soft US September jobs report, with payroll growth below expectations (29k vs 90k expected) but not weak enough to trigger growth concerns, alongside mixed Factory and Capital Goods orders data, prompted a modest upward reassessment of Fed rate expectations. Markets now price a hike in December and at least two more thereafter. Treasury yields rose.
Energy prices rose on Thursday amid reports of intensified Iranian attacks on tankers crossing Hormuz, before Trump ruled out new US attacks on Iran ahead of the midterms. Eurozone short-term inflation expectations rose, while ECB and Fed hike expectations remained stable, as officials struck a cautious, mildly hawkish tone and did not endorse an October move.
Friday saw a mixed session across asset classes. Energy prices rose amid elevated geopolitical risks in Hormuz and Ukraine, keeping short-term inflation expectations under pressure, particularly in the US.
Risk sentiment weakened in Europe as persistent investor concerns over France’s fiscal outlook continued to weigh on equities, the euro and sovereign bonds. In contrast, U.S. equities advanced, led by gains in AI-related and semiconductor stocks.
Las bolsas europeas han registrado leves descensos en una jornada marcada por el discurso de Theresa May sobre las negociaciones del brexit.
Investors have been relatively cautious as they continue to assess Trump's tax proposal. As a consequence, stock markets remained relatively stable.
Stock markets advanced in Europe and the US as German sovereign yields remained stable and US yields edged up.