Flash report on the evolution of the euro exchange rate against the main currencies: US dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, and Chinese yuan. Offers structural and predictive analysis. Available in Spanish and English.
EUR/USD has traded largely sideways since mid‑2025, hovering around 1.17, after a year of elevated volatility. The currency pair appears to have stabilised between its long‑term historical averages, around 1.12 (10‑year average) and 1.22 dollars per euro (20‑year average).
During the first three quarters of 2025, sterling depreciated against the euro, despite having a favorable interest rate differential, due to the resilience of the eurozone and fiscal pressures and political uncertainty in the United Kingdom. Since then, this dynamic has partially reversed, with a moderate appreciation that has become more pronounced following the conflict in the Middle East, during which sterling has outperformed most major currencies, aside from the US dollar.
En 2025, el yen se depreció de forma sostenida frente al euro, pese a las políticas restrictivas del Banco de Japón y las políticas ligeramente expansivas del BCE. Esto se debe a varios motivos: el diferencial de tipos todavía negativo, la incertidumbre política y fiscal de Japón o la debilidad estructural del país nipón, que depende en exceso de importaciones de energía y otras materias primas. Esta dinámica se ha moderado a inicios de este año, en parte afectada por las especulaciones de una intervención coordinada entre Estados Unidos y Japón sobre el yen y el giro en el panorama político.
