Canary Islands

• The Canary Islands have 2.26 million inhabitants, 4.6% of the total, making it the Spanish region with the seventh largest population. It is one of the autonomous communities that has seen the strongest population growth over the last two decades and it is among the youngest regions: 18.3% of the population is over the age of 65 (20.7% on average).
• The GDP of the Canary Islands (54.194 billion euros) accounts for 3.6% of Spanish GDP, the eighth highest of all regions.
• GDP per capita (24,345 euros) is the third lowest in the country and 21.4% below the national average. The region has been falling further behind the average, due to strong population growth coupled with a less buoyant economy.
• The Canary Islands’ sectoral composition is highly dependent on the tourism sector, which is reflected in the importance of trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (38.9% of GDP, 10 points above Spain as a whole); the public sector also plays a key role (21.0% vs. 17.4%). However, the manufacturing industry is of far lesser importance (2.8% vs. 11.9%).
• Reflecting the less prominent role played by industry, exports of goods account for the smallest proportion of GDP of all the regions (4.3%): almost 60% are energy products – fuel for aircraft and ships. In contrast, exports of tourism services are particularly important for the Canary Islands: in 2024, foreign tourists spent over 23 billion euros in the region, 18.1% of their total spending throughout Spain, and tourism directly and indirectly contributed over 35% of the Canary Islands’ GDP.

The Canary Islands’ economy has proven to be highly resilient following the pandemic and it is one of the most buoyant regions in the country. At CaixaBank Research, we forecast GDP growth of 3.6% in 2024 (3.2% in Spain), mainly thanks to the upturn in tourism, which also boosted job creation and consumption.

For 2025, our forecasts indicate that GDP growth will slow down to 2.8%, but will remain above average (2.4%). Although it will loose steam after a few record-breaking years, tourism will continue to be the main driver of activity; moreover, geopolitical uncertainty and armed conflicts such as that in the Middle East may make Spain as a whole, and the Canary Islands in particular, more attractive destinations than other competitors. We also expect the disbursement of European funds to be stepped up, which will boost productive investment and economic activity.

The labour market of the Canary Islands is the best-performing in the country, with an average rise in the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security of 3.6% in 2024 (2.4% on average in Spain) and 3.3% year-on-year in April this year (vs. 2.3%), mainly due to job creation in transportation, healthcare and hotels and restaurants. However, employment fell in the public sector. On a less positive note, the unemployment rate is among the highest in Spain: it stood at 13.5% in Q1 2025 (vs. 11.4%).

Following the shock caused by the pandemic, tourist activity is recovering strongly, especially in terms of foreign tourist arrivals and spending, which in 2023 were well above 2019 levels. Meanwhile, total overnight stays (domestic and foreign) recovered the following year. This year has started well, albeit at a somewhat more sluggish pace than in the past: in Q1, foreign tourist arrivals to the islands grew by 2.1% year-on-year, up to almost 4.4 million, and spending rose by 5.5% to nearly 7 billion euros.

The recovery of tourism and strong-performing employment are boosting consumption. Thus, the volume of retail trade sales grew by 5.6% in 2024, the highest rise across all regions (2.1% in Spain as a whole) and rose by a further 3.4% year-on-year in January-April this year, remaining far higher than the average figures recorded in Spain (2.6%). Meanwhile, passenger car registrations performed less well: after being one of the few regions to record a decline in 2024 (–6.5% vs. 7.1% in Spain), it recovered in early 2025, growing by 10.3% year-on-year up to April (vs. 12.2%).

Industry has performed strongly in the Canary Islands in recent years, partly due to the upturn in tourism and consumption, which gave a boost to the food and manufacturing sectors, as well as hotel and restaurant supplies. Industrial production slowed last year but continued to grow at above-average rates (1.6% vs. 0.7%); this slowdown continued into Q1 2025, with growth of just 0.3% year-on-year, far below the 1.5% recorded in Spain.