Murcia Region

• With almost 1.6 million inhabitants, Murcia accounts for 3.2% of Spain’s total population. It is the youngest region in the country, with only 17.0% of the population aged over 65 (national average of 20.7%).
• The region’GDP stands at 41.902 billion euros, equivalent to 2.6% of Spanish GDP.
• GDP per capita (26,572 euros) is the fourth-lowest in the country and 18.6% below the national average. Despite the buoyancy of its economy in recent years, its GDP per capita has fallen slightly further below the national average due to the region’s strong population growth.
• In terms of production sectors, it has notably high specialisation in the manufacturing industry (17.1% of GDP vs. 11.9% in Spain), the extractive industry (5.6% vs. 4.2%) and, in particular, the agricultural sector (4.6% vs. 2.7%), where the region ranks third in fruit and vegetable production. In contrast, industry-related services make up a far smaller percentage (20.8% vs. 29.7%).
• Goods exports represent 34.0% of regional GDP, 10 points above the Spanish average and the fourth-highest percentage in the country. In 2024, the region exported goods worth 14.237 billion euros, 3.7% of Spanish exports. Almost half of exported goods come from the agri-food industry, especially fruit, pulses and vegetables, ahead of fuel (22.6%) – thanks to the refinery in Escombreras – and chemical products (10.2%).

Murcia’s economy is performing very strongly. At CaixaBank Research, we estimate that Murcia’s GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2025 (2.9% in Spain). Notably, household spending is improving, supported by the healthy labour market and a buoyant tourism industry, while industry and exports are performing more poorly, hampered by the weakness of the euro area.

Our forecasts indicate that Murcia’s economy will slow down in 2026, growing by 2.1%, the same rate as across the country. This slowdown is mainly attributable to weaker services and foreign demand, which may be impacted by higher tariffs, given the region’s high exposure to the US relative to the size of its economy. However, residential construction will make an ever-more important contribution to growth, while easing prices and interest rates and a strong labour market could keep consumption in good shape.

Employment figures in Murcia have been very positive. After growing slightly above the Spanish average in 2024 (2.6% vs 2.4%), the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security is rising sharply this year, recording one of the highest rates in the country in October (3.2% year-on-year vs. 2.4%): in the last year, there has been notable growth in employment in transportation, construction and education. However, the unemployment rate (12.9% in Q3 2025) is among the highest (10.5% on average).

Consumer spending has been performing better than on average nationally, although it has only just recovered to pre-pandemic levels. After growing by 2.5% in 2024 (2.1% in the whole of Spain), the volume of sales in the retail trade picked up sharply this year and rose by 5.2% year-on-year in January-September (vs 3.9%), the second highest figure of all regions. Meanwhile, passenger car registrations rose by 7.8% in 2024 – above average (7.1%) – and shot up by 12.2% year-on-year in January-October 2025 (vs. 14.9%), although Murcia is the region furthest adrift from pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (–36.3% vs. –9.4%).

In 2024, Murcia’s industrial activity was boosted by capital and intermediate goods, whereas the energy sector stagnated and consumer durables saw a sharp decline. As a result, the IPI grew faster than in Spain as a whole (1.7% vs. 0.7%). In the first nine months of this year, it slowed down considerably, only growing by 0.8% year-on-year (vs. 1.1%): intermediate goods and energy products were behind this slowdown.

Murcia’s exports of goods saw a modest rise in 2024, but were somewhat stronger than in the rest of the country (1.5% vs. 0.2%). This year, with figures up to August, they recorded a marked decline, with some of the worst figures of any region (–8.1% year-on-year vs. 0.3% in Spain): the excellent performance of sales of agri-food products, especially fruit and pulses, has been largely offset by the sharp decline – for the second year running – in sales of energy products (oil products), hampered by their prices returning to normal levels.