Murcia Region

• With almost 1.6 million inhabitants, Murcia accounts for 3.2% of Spain’s total population. It is the youngest region in the country, with only 16.6% of the population aged over 65 (national average of 20.4%).
• The region’s GDP stands at 35.810 billion euros, equivalent to 2.7% of Spanish GDP.
• GDP per capita (23,197 euros) is the fifth-lowest in the country and 17.6% below the national average. Despite being one of the most dynamic regions in recent years, the difference between its GDP per capita and the national average has stabilised due to the region’s strong population growth.
• In terms of production sectors, it is notable for its greater specialisation in the manufacturing industry (15.1% of GDP vs. 12.5% in Spain), the extractive industry (5.6% vs. 4.9%) and, in particular, the agricultural sector (4.6% vs. 2.6%), where it is the third-largest region in fruit and vegetable production. In contrast, industry-related services make up a far smaller percentage (21.8% vs. 28.5%).
• Goods exports represent 40.2% of regional GDP, 11.3 points above the Spanish average and the fourth-highest percentage in the country. In 2023, the region exported goods worth 14.020 billion euros, 3.7% of Spanish exports. Almost half of exported goods come from the agri-food industry, especially fruit, pulses and vegetables, ahead of fuel (23.7%) –thanks to the refinery in Escombreras– and chemical products (10%). Murcia accounts for 17% of all Spanish exports of fruit and pulses.

Murcia’s economy is evolving positively. At CaixaBank Research we estimate that Murcian GDP grew by 2.0% in 2023 (2.5% in Spain). The inflationary context and high interest rates curbed consumer spending, and rising costs and the drought negatively impacted the agricultural sector and the food industry, which are extremely important for the region. However, the strength of trade, tourism and public works stood out.

Our forecasts indicate that Murcia’s economy will slow down in 2024, with a GDP flash estimate of 1.8% (1.9% on average across the country). The loss of momentum is mainly due to the weakening of construction and industry, still affected by rising costs, while services will mitigate their contribution to growth. On the positive side, we expect the pace of implementation of European funds to increase, which will help to boost activity.

Employment figures in Murcia have been positive. After growing by 1.9% on average in 2023 (2.7% in Spain), the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security accelerated significantly at the start of this year and grew at a rate of 3.1% year-on-year in February (vs. 2.7%), far exceeding 2019 levels (12.3% vs. 9.6% on average): in the last year, there has been notable growth in employment in hotels and restaurants, education and healthcare. In turn, the unemployment rate (11.3% in Q4 2023) is lower, both than the Spanish average (11.8%) and, more importantly, than pre-pandemic levels (16.1% in Q4 2019).

Consumer spending is performing more modestly than the national average: after recording the biggest decline of all regions affected by inflationary pressures in 2022, retail trade sales (in volume) grew by just 0.5% in 2023 (2.9% in Spain) and 0.2% year-on-year in January of this year (vs. 1.4%), making it one of the regions furthest from 2019 levels (–5.9% vs. +1.2%).

Murcia’s industrial activity was hampered by the energy and agri-food sectors in 2023, so the IPI fell sharply, by 6.2% (vs. –1.4% for Spain overall). Despite the sharp rise recorded at the start of 2024 (+7.3% year-on-year in January vs. +3.6%), it remains far below 2019 levels (–4.3% vs. –2,4%).

Murcia’s exports of goods in 2023 recorded a more notable decline than in the rest of the country (–2.7% vs. –1,4%): the excellent performance of sales of agri-food products, especially fruit, pulses and processed foods, was largely offset by the sharp decline in sales of energy products (oil products), hampered by the normalisation of their prices. As a result, they are 30.1% higher than in 2019 (vs. +31.9% in Spain).